Acting Like a Winner

Last weekend my Carolina Panthers held on versus the Green Bay Packers to go 8-0, the best start by a long shot in the team’s two decade-plus history. Seriously, we Panthers fans don’t even know how to act at this point.

Speaking of knowing how to act when winning, I couldn’t help but fire a message to my buddy Rich at one point during the game. I can’t remember when it was exactly, but it was following some theatrics from Newton celebrating the Panthers’ success. It might have been near the end when victory was finally in sight, now that I think about it.

What I said to Rich was that while I like Newton, he’s basically incapable of “acting like he’s been there before.”

To be fair I’m mostly ambivalent about this issue of Newton’s celebrating. Some Panthers fans (and even more Panthers haters) are much more energized when complaining about Newton doing his “Super-Cam” gesture after scores or even getting excited after first downs (as he often does). Indeed, I am such a Cam fan, I tend to give him a lot of leeway in this area.

Newton’s hugely talented and even though he takes risks and is fully capable of errant throws now and then he’s such a huge positive overall. Add to that the fact that there’s almost nothing I like better in sports than when Newton delivers footballs to kids in the stands following scores. The kids love it, which is very cool. And it reminds adults what it was like to be kids, which is also cool. (There was an especially nice story related to the example pictured above from last weekend, by the way.)

Rich had a good answer for my acting-like-you’ve-been-there remark about Newton. “Why should he?” asked Rich in response. “Enjoy every second.”

That night and over the next two nights I watched the World Series of Poker Main Event play out, where eight of the nine players came up just short of the ultimate goal of winning the whole sucker. With each bustout came very sportsmanlike behavior all around, and in fact I can’t even remember any overdone celebrations whenever anyone won a big pot. (Not that anyone other than Joe McKeehen did a lot of that, actually).

Of course, none of those guys had ever “been there before” (although a few had gotten deep and/or won big tournaments previously). But they all had long ago absorbed those lessons in etiquette most poker players do regarding tempering celebrations when you win, and similarly toning down the complaining when you don’t.

Anyhow, the Panthers have obviously never been here before -- that is, undefeated through half a season. I hardly expect Carolina to replicate that feat in games 9 through 16, obviously. But I think there will be a few more celebrations, which I plan to do my best to enjoy when they come.

2015 WSOP Main Event Final Table Hole Cards (Complete)

I mentioned yesterday I had something more to share from this week’s 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event final table. Once again I noted hole cards shown during what turned out to be about 11 hours or so worth of coverage on ESPN, and I’m sharing them here for anyone who might be curious.

I’ve done something similar for the last three years. In both 2012 and 2013, I posted the lists here on Hard-Boiled, then over on PokerNews in 2014.

Since PN didn’t do the live updates at the WSOP this year, I decided to post it over here again this time, since part of the point of doing it on PN was to link each hand to the update. I’m not going to go through and link all 184 of these hands to the individual updates on WSOP.com, but you can find them over there if you wish.

In 2012 and 2013, ESPN was only showing hole cards after hands completed. Meanwhile last year and again this year, they would show players’ cards whenever they voluntarily put chips in the middle (and not if they didn’t), with the exception of also showing the big blind’s hand whenever that player folded to raise to end a hand.

At just 184 hands, this was a relatively quick final table, the shortest in the last decade, at least. Here are the totals going back to ’05: 2014 (328 hands), 2013 (261), 2012 (399), 2011 (301), 2010 (262), 2009 (364), 2008 (274), 2007 (205), 2006 (236), 2005 (232).

For those who felt like there seemed to be a lot of premium hands dealt at the final table, well, there were a lot although not necessarily that many more than would be expected. That said, both Joe McKeehen and Neil Blumenfield got more than their share.

McKeehen was dealt all 184 hands, of course. Throwing ace-queen in with the “premiums” -- so, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, A-K, and A-Q -- we saw McKeehen be dealt 16 premium hands (aces three times, kings twice, queens three times, ace-king six times, and ace-queen twice). If my math is right, on average that’s about twice the number of premium hands he’d typically get in 184 hands (just under seven).

Blumenfield got 10 such hands (out of 172), also above the almost 6.5 a player gets on average for that number of hands. Meanwhile the other seven players were right at or a little below the average for getting dealt such hands. Beckley got 5/184 (average would be 6.95, like McKeehen); Steinberg 5/143 (avg. 5.4); Stern 4/121 (4.6); Cannuli 1/74 (2.7); Neuville 3/72 (2.7); Butteroni 0/32 (1.2); and Chan 0/2 (0/1).

I guess Cannuli (who got aces once) and Butteroni (who was dealt none of these hands) might complain a little about their cards at this final table. McKeehen, meanwhile, not only played his big stack well but was steadily dealt plenty of good starting hands, too.

Okay, enough. Here’s the list. An asterisk indicates a bustout hand, and an “X” a card that failed to be read by ESPN. It’s worth noting, too, the slim possibility that ESPN could have reported a card incorrectly, and the greater-than-slim possibility that I could have made a mistake when marking one down.

2015 WSOP MAIN EVENT FINAL TABLE: DAY ONE

Level 35

1. Steinberg Ks Jh, Chan 9h 4c
*2. McKeehen Ad 4h, Chan Ks Qc
3. Stern Ad 10c, Blumenfield Qc 8c
4. Neuville 10s 10d, Blumenfield As Ac
5. Steinberg Ad 10h, Blumenfield Qh Qc
6. Blumenfield As 3s, Beckley 10d 8s
7. Stern 10s 7s, Steinberg 5h 5c
8. Steinberg Kh Qh, Cannuli 9h 5d
9. Cannuli Jd 8s, McKeehen Qs X
10. Beckley Kc Qh, Butteroni 8h 2c
11. Beckley As Qh, Blumenfield Jc 9c
12. Blumenfield As 7c, Stern Kh 2c
13. McKeehen Kh 10d, Blumenfield Ac 10h
14. Stern Ah 5d, Beckley 10d 4s
15. Beckley Kh 4d, Steinberg 5c 2d
16. Neuville Kc Qs, Cannuli 9s 5s

Level 36

17. Beckley 10d 8c, McKeehen 6s 4s
18. Blumenfield 2h 2d, McKeehen Kc 10c
19. Steinberg 8s 8d, McKeehen 8c 7h
20. Blumenfield 8h 2h, Stern 9c 2c
21. Butteroni Qc 9c, Neuville Ah 7h
22. McKeehen Kh Kc, Beckley Ks Jd
23. Neuville As 4s, Steinberg 10s 7c
24. Beckley Ac 8c, Cannuli 6s 3s
25. Blumenfield Kh Qh, McKeehen Ks 3h
26. Beckley Ks 10c, Butteroni Qs 3s
27. Stern Ad 9d, Blumenfield Kc 3d
28. Steinberg Js 4s (accidentally exposed), McKeehen Ah 8c, Blumenfield Ad Ks
29. McKeehen 10s 9s, Neuville Jd 8h
30. Blumenfield As Qs, Stern Kh Jh, Neuville Ah Ac
31. Stern Qs 9h, Neuville 4h 4c
32. Neuville Qs Qc, Cannuli Kh 9h
33. Stern Jh Jc, McKeehen 9c 8h
34. Beckley 9d 8s, Steinberg Ac Kc
*35. McKeehen As Ks, Butteroni Ah Jc
36. Cannuli 6h 6c, McKeehen Kh Jh, Stern 5s 2h
37. Stern As 9h, Neuville 9s 8s
38. Steinberg Ah 7h, Beckley 8c 5c
39. Stern 6s 6c, Steinberg 10c 6d
40. McKeehen Ks 10s, Stern Qs Qd
41. Stern As Jc, McKeehen Ah 8c
42. McKeehen Kc 9d, Blumenfield Js 8h
43. Cannuli 6c 4c, Blumenfield Ac 3s
44. McKeehen Ks 5c, Neuville 10c 2d
45. Stern 6s 3s, Beckley Qd Qc
46. Stern As 6c, Steinberg 5d 2d
47. McKeehen 8s 6s, Cannuli Js 4d
48. Blumenfield 4h 4c, Neuville Ac Kh

Level 37

49. Cannuli Ah Js, Blumenfield 10s 6h
50. Steinberg 10s 10c, Stern Ah 6d
51. McKeehen 10c 9h, Neuville 7h 6c
52. Cannuli Qc Js, Beckley 6c 2s
53. McKeehen Qd Qc, Stern 7s 7d, Steinberg 3s 3c
54. Blumenfield Ad 9c, Cannuli Qc Js
55. Steinberg Qh 8d, McKeehen Ad 5h
56. Stern Ah Kh, McKeehen 8d 8c
57. Stern Qc 8h, Blumenfield Ah 2h
58. Cannuli Kh Qd, Blumenfield Kd Jd, Stern Jh Jc
59. Cannuli As Jd, Beckley Qc 6d
60. McKeehen 5s 5d, Stern As Kc
61. Blumenfield Jc 10c, Beckley Qh Qc
62. Cannuli 9h 5h, McKeehen X X
63. Stern Jh 9c, McKeehen As Ac
64. McKeehen Kc 10c, Stern Ad 3h
65. McKeehen Kd 7c, Blumenfield Ad 9s
66. McKeehen Ac 7d, Beckley, Jh 6s
67. Cannuli Ah Jh, Steinberg 4h 3s
68. Blumenfield Qh Qd, Cannuli 8c 6d
69. Beckley Kd 8d, Cannuli Ad Jc
70. Steinberg Kh 9c, McKeehen 8s 4d
71. McKeehen Kd 7d, Stern Jd 8d
*72. McKeehen Jh 6h, Neuville Ac Jc

2015 WSOP MAIN EVENT FINAL TABLE: DAY TWO

73. McKeehen 9s 9d, Steinberg Kc Jh
*74. Cannuli As Ac, Steinberg 10h 10d
75. Stern Ad 4h, McKeehen Jc 9c
76. Blumenfield Ad 2d, Steinberg Ah Jd
77. Beckley Ac Qc, Stern 7s 2s
78. McKeehen As 2s, Beckley 10h 6s
79. Beckley Ks 10c, Steinberg 9h 2d
80. Steinberg Jd 6s, McKeehen As X
81. Steinberg As 8h, Steinberg Ks 5c
82. McKeehen 9c 7h, Blumenfield As Ks
83. Steinberg Ac Ks, McKeehen Kh Qh
84. McKeehen 7c 4c, Steinberg Jh 6h
85. Stern Ad Ac, McKeehen Ks 4d
86. McKeehen 4d 3d, Blumenfield Jd 7h
87. McKeehen Kd Kc, Stern 9s 8c
88. McKeehen Ks 8s, Beckley Ah 9h
89. McKeehen Qc 6c, Stern 3s 3h, Beckley As Ac
90. Stern Ad Jc, McKeehen Ks 6h
91. Stern Ad 9d, Blumenfield 10d 3c
92. McKeehen Ks 4h, Stern 8d 7c
93. Blumenfield Ah Kd, Beckley 8h 6d

Level 38

94. Stern Kc 2d, Steinberg Qs Qh
95. Beckley Qh 7c, McKeehen 10s 3s
96. Steinberg Ks 10c, Blumenfield 9d 7c
97. McKeehen 6h 3h, Stern 8d 6d
98. Stern 10s 9s, Beckley As Ah
99. Blumenfield 8s 6s, Steinberg 5c 2h
100. Stern Kc Qd, McKeehen 9c 3s
101. Stern As 9s, Blumenfield 9h 4c
102. McKeehen 4c 2h, Stern 6h 3h
103. McKeehen 5h 4c, Beckley 8h 8c
104. Beckley Js 6d, Steinberg 4d 2d
105. Blumenfield 3s 3c, McKeehen Ah Ad
106. Beckley Kd 7h, Blumenfield 8h 4h
107. McKeehen Jh 2s, Blumenfield Kc 10c, Stern 9c 3c
108. Stern Qd 3s, Beckley 9s 9h
109. McKeehen Ac Jd, Beckley Ad Js
110: Beckley Kh 5c, McKeehen 8h 2s
111. McKeehen Ad Jh, Blumenfield 4h 3c
112. McKeehen Jc 10d, Stern Qh 9h
113. McKeehen Ac 6h, Beckley 8h 8c
114. Beckley Jc 10h, Steinberg 10s 2s
115. Blumenfield Ac 4c, McKeehen 5c 3c
116. Steinberg Kc 10d, Blumenfield 10c 8c
117. McKeehen Ah 5d, Stern 5s 2h
118. Blumenfield Ad 6c, Beckley Qs 3d
119. Beckley Kh 6s, Steinberg As Qd
120. Steinberg 8c 4h. McKeehen 7d 2d
*121. Stern Ac Jh, Blumenfield As Kc
122. McKeehen Js 10s, Blumenfield Ad 5s
123. Beckley As Jd, Steinberg 10s 6h
124. Blumenfield As Ah, Beckley Ks 9s
125. Steinberg Ac Qh, Blumenfield 4h 2s
126. McKeehen Qs Qd, Beckley Jh Js
127. Blumenfield Qh Qd, Steinberg 3s 2h
128. Steinberg Kd 5h, Steinberg Ac 8d
129. Steinberg 7h 3h, McKeehen Ad Qs
130. McKeehen Kd 4s, Blumenfield Kc Jh, Beckley 8h 5h
131. Beckley 6h 2c, Steinberg 7h 2d
132. McKeehen 8h 8d, Beckley Ac 2h
133. McKeehen Qc 2h, Blumenfield Qd 2c
134. McKeehen Ad Kh, Beckley Ks 8c
135. McKeehen 9h 8s, Beckley Qc 9c
136. Steinberg Ah Jh, McKeehen 5s 4d
137. McKeehen 10h 7s, Blumenfield 10d 2d
138. McKeehen Kh 7d, Beckley 7h 6c
139. Blumenfield Ad 4h, Steinberg 6d 3h
140. Blumenfield 10s 9s, McKeehen 7s 5h

Level 39

141. Beckley Kh 3h, Steinberg Ad 8d
142. McKeehen 10h 9h, Beckley 7h 4h
*143. McKeehen Ad Qc, Steinberg Ah Jd

2015 WSOP MAIN EVENT FINAL TABLE: DAY THREE

144. Beckley Ks 9h, McKeehen 10c 7s
145. Beckley 10h 6h, McKeehen As 9d
146. McKeehen 5c 4d, Beckley As Jd
147. Blumenfield Ad 3c, Beckley Qd Jd
148. McKeehen Ks 10c, Blumenfield Qh 8d
149. McKeehen 9s 3c, Blumenfield As 9h
150. Beckley As 6c, McKeehen Js 7s
151. Beckley Ad 10c, McKeehen 10s 8h
152. McKeehen Jc 10d, Beckley 9h 9d
153. Blumenfield 9s 9h, McKeehen Jd 10c
154. McKeehen Qd 6d, Blumenfield Kc 3c
155. McKeehen Qc 9c, Beckley 7s 2d
156. Beckley Jh 9h, McKeehen 9d 2s
157. McKeehen As Ah, Blumenfield Kd 4s
158. McKeehen Kh 10s, Beckley 5h 3c
159. Beckley Qh 8h, McKeehen 9s 8c
160. Beckley Ks Jc, Blumenfield Ah 7h
161. McKeehen 5c 5s, Beckley As 7c
162. Beckley Ac 6h, McKeehen 10d 8h
163. McKeehen Ac 5s, Blumenfield 9d 4c
164. McKeehen 7h 6s, Beckley Ac 2s
165. Beckley 9h 2c, McKeehen 7h 6s
166. McKeehen Ad Kc, Blumenfield Jd 4d
167. McKeehen Qh 8h, Beckley 10h 2d
168. Beckley Qc 6h, McKeehen X X
169. McKeehen Ac Js, Blumenfield Jd 2s
170. McKeehen Qh 5c, Beckley Kd 9s
171. Blumenfield Qd Jd, McKeehen 7d 6c
*172. Beckley As 7d, McKeehen Qs Qh, Blumenfield 2d 2h
173. McKeehen Ad Ks, Beckley 9h 7h
174. Beckley 10c 6s, McKeehen 10h 7h
175. McKeehen 10s 8c, Beckley Qh 2d
176. Beckley Qc 9c, McKeehen 10d 4d
177. McKeehen 7s 5c, Beckley Kd 4c
178. Beckley Qc 7s, McKeehen Jh 8h
179. McKeehen Qh Jc, Beckley Ks Qs
180. Beckley 9h 4c, McKeehen As Kh
181. McKeehen 8c 5d, Beckley 8s 2s
182. Beckley As 2h, McKeehen 10s 10h
183. McKeehen Ad Kc, Beckley 8s 7h
*184. Beckley 4d 4c, McKeehen Ah 10d

2015 WSOP November Nine, Day 3: Kudos to Joe Cool

Don’t have a heckuva lot to add to last night’s finale at the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event where Joe McKeehen took care of things with little difficulty. Definitely enjoyed the show last night, although I’ll admit I was a little confused by ESPN’s “What to Look For” tips once they got to heads-up (wink).

Tomorrow I’ll share some nerdy stuff regarding the hands shown during the three nights’ worth of shows, but for today I just wanted to share one quick thought.

I was frankly pulling for McKeehen to win even back in July when Daniel Negreanu was still among those left in the sucker. It goes back to that WSOP Circuit event I covered in early 2013 in which McKeehen similarly entered the final day with the big chip lead and cruised to victory without much resistance, at the time the biggest cash for the Philadelphian.

From that event (at Caesars Atlantic City) I remembered a few things about McKeehen. One was the fact that he had an iPad at the table and was following our coverage, occasionally interacting with us as he reacted to some of the hands being reported. I remember getting the sense that he enjoyed especially whenever we’d include table talk or other details that went beyond the cards (in other words, the stuff I, too, tend to find more interesting a lot of the time).

I also recall how he arrived early for the last day, the first of the 19 players still left in the event to show up. As we didn’t have a photographer for the tournament, I got him to pose for a quick iPhone photo for us to use in the blog. He also did kind of a mock-muscle pose in his winner’s photo, I’m remembering, which produced some grins.

The main thing, though, that I remember about the tournament was how McKeehen seemed not just in control and especially cool at the table, but also how amiable he was with players who were clearly less confident and/or experienced. It wasn’t anything extraordinary, but it was something positive about the guy I ended up taking away from the event.

Watching three-handed last night -- and also some the night before -- you could occasionally see McKeehen being similarly friendly with Blumenfield sitting on his left, and really with everyone. Those exchanges reminded me of how I’d first encountered McKeehen, and like I say made me glad to see him do well this summer and then take it all down this week.

Saw just a few truly dumb responses over Twitter last night to McKeehen’s win and his short post-tourney interview (including a burst of bitter, embarrassingly unfunny heckling from the mostly dormant Wicked Chops Poker account). When asked about being poker’s “ambassador,” McKeehen very reasonably responded “we’ll see,” which to me went right along with his matter-of-fact demeanor and playing style.

All of which is to say I was glad to see McKeehen win, thought Josh Beckley and Blumenfield were pretty likable, too, and on the whole was both entertained, enthused, and even encouraged by the WSOP’s finale.

2015 WSOP November Nine, Day 2: McKeehen’s Still On Top

Watched every hand again last night as the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event final table played down from six players to three, with Joe McKeehen remaining in a dominant position going into three-handed play for tonight’s finish.

It’s reminding me once again of that WSOP Circuit final table from a couple of years ago that I’ve mentioned before, the one at Caesars Atlantic City I helped cover where McKeehen entered the final day with a big lead and never seemed to be challenged much at all on his way to the win.

Kind of remarkable, really, to think how easily things have gone for McKeehen at the final table thus far. Not only has he avoided making any bad decisions, he’s barely even taken that many risks at all even with decent hands in good spots. Both his opponents’ styles and the cards have dictated that result somewhat, but the overall impression has been that it’s hard to imagine how things could have gone much differently for McKeehen up to this point.

Easily the most interesting hand last night was the one that came relatively late when they were four-handed and Josh Beckley managed to three-bet and then fold pocket jacks to a reraise from the chip leader. We knew when watching that McKeehen had four-bet with pocket queens, which helped raise the eyebrows a little further when we saw Beckley avoid getting hooked by his two hooks.

The hand reminded me of one from the 2006 WSOP Main Event final table, something I brought up in another “what would you do?”-type PokerNews article today. I’m referring to a hand in which Richard Lee reraised all in with pocket jacks versus Jamie Gold’s queens and was knocked out in sixth.

Even though the two hands were similar, it’s funny to go back and think about how crazily different the play was at the ’06 final table -- where, it should be said, most of those there were amateurs, with Allen Cunningham being the exception. In fact in the hand Gold limped in with his queens, something that is hard to imagine happening today. So, too, have the 3x-and-above opening raises at that final table become a thing of the distant past.

Will be there ’til the end again tonight. While it’s hard to envision McKeehen in trouble, it sure would be interesting to watch should either Beckley or Neil Blumenfield manage to get in a position where they can present him some difficulty to complicate the conclusion.

2015 WSOP November Nine, Day 1: Having Fun Filling the Pauses

Sat up until 2 a.m. here last night until Pierre Neuville was eliminated in seventh and play was paused at the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event final table. The 72-year-old lasted 72 hands, as it happened. At least he didn’t go out with seven-deuce.

I was a little surprised at how tightly Neuville played for much of the night. Having seen him take chances and be bold in other tournaments before -- including online -- I knew he liked to play against the old-man image and mix things up. He and I talked about that very idea back in August, in fact, when I had a chance to interview him at EPT Barcelona.

But alas last night seemed to go in a different direction for the Belgian. Neuville was shown making some tight folds, then got a bit unlucky in a couple of spots including his last hand, although by then he was so short a double-up wouldn’t have helped him a lot, anyway.

Meanwhile the other older player, Neil Blumenfield (aged 61), made me think of Jerry Yang early on when he three-bet with Q-8-offsuit. He did well for himself to maintain a competitive stack all night, although leader Joe McKeehen -- now with over 91 million chips or nearly three times that of the chase pack that includes Ofer Zvi Stern and Blumenfield -- is going to be hard to catch.

Speaking of Stern, his lengthy tanking quickly became the foremost topic of conversation last night.

“Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz….vi Stern. #November9,” tweeted Joe Stapleton. “Get it Ofer with,” was Remko Rinkema’s take. Meanwhile my constructive contributions included “At this rate, they won’t finish before Tanksgiving” and “Did I just hear a commercial saying if you have an erection lasting longer than four hands to call your physician?”

I saw Kevmath tweet something this morning about the action begin on Stern for something like 55 minutes or so out of the five-plus hours it took to play those 72 hands. All of the commercial breaks during the first two-and-a-half hours (during prime time) also helped lengthen things considerably.

Regarding the Stern commentary (pun intended) on Twitter last night, let me also shout out to D.J. MacKinnon and Jess Welman for a couple of Global Poker League-inspired thoughts. “Wonder how much more exciting this final table would be with a huge cube around it,” speculated MacKinnon, who then offered a laugh-out-loud artist's rendering as a follow-up. “You know what would make this final table so much better?” Jess then asked. “If everyone was standing up.”

That’s my cat, Sweetie, up above, by the way, mesmerized by another hand involving Stern.

Now, of course, the “shot clock” talk has begun again, although as has been the case when that has come up before, I can’t really get behind the idea. Players playing slowly is part of the game, and if other players have a problem they can call the clock to try to speed things up. Obviously Stern doesn’t have to play that way, but just as obviously he has every right to do so.

Phil Hellmuth tweeted something about him receiving a warning at one point, although it might have been the Stern warning (pun intended) was not for his slow pace of play. (Can’t really trust Hellmuth always to know what he’s tweeting about.) Will be curious to see if Stern is influenced at all into speeding up after no doubt getting feedback on what happened last night.

Have to say, though, I enjoyed the show last night, even with the sluggish pace. In part it was because I like watching how well McKeehen has been pushing around others by pushing his chips. But mostly it was because of the tweets, which were a fun way to fill all those pauses.

Fleeting Impressions

Following up on yesterday’s list, here are a few very hasty thoughts about some impressions left by the hands shown during ESPN’s WSOP Main Event coverage involving the November Niners:

Joe McKeehen: Smart and savvy, able to play quietly or match Negreanu’s table talk. Stepped up pressure considerably with big stack at end of Day 7. Especially cool (barely reacted when rivering four-outer to survive with 46 left).

Zvi Stern: Shown bluffing multiple times, giving him the appearance of one willing to take chances, make unorthodox plays.

Neil Blumenfield: Exhibited some characteristic amateur play, including some risky/rash all-ins (getting lucky a couple of times). However did manage to survive multiple hands in which many amateurs would’ve been eliminated (e.g., getting aces cracked).

Pierre Neuville: Often cautious, but more than willing to take chances and go against image with bluffs and/or aggression. Hands shown didn’t fully reveal his craftiness.

Max Steinberg: Along with McKeehen appears the most solid player of the nine. Likes big opening raises and was shown once making big overbet bluff, but obviously good at reading and decision-making postflop.

Tom Cannuli: Held his own during lots of feature table time (much with Negreanu). Has full range of moves available and seemingly good sense of what others are up to.

Josh Beckley: Often was short-stacked and thus without too many options, but was shown making big folds and trying multi-barrel bluffs more than once, too.

Patrick Chan: Barely made the coverage; barely made an impression.

Federico Butteroni: Got a lot of air time. Seemed to play some hands well, some less so.

This sort of thing reminds me of the story of the blind men and the elephant. You’ve heard of it, yes? Several blind men gather around an elephant, each touching a different part (the trunk, a leg, a tusk, etc.), then discuss what the animal was and discover they are in complete disagreement.

We saw only a tiny fraction of the hands played by these nine players. Even if we had seen all of them, we still would have imperfect knowledge of how each play. Still, it’s interesting to think about the impressions such imperfect chronicling has created, and whether or not such impressions could influence what happens once play resumes Sunday night.

(EDIT [added 11/8/15]: For more November Nine-related conjecture -- including from your humble scribbler -- check out the “PokerNews Staff Predictions for the World Series of Poker November Nine.”)

Compiling the November Niners’ Hands Shown on ESPN

Okay, folks... this is going to seem a little obsessive. But I took all these notes and ended up deciding not to use them for anything else, and so I’m going to share it all here rather than just keep them to myself.

A couple of days ago I mentioned again how I’d been watching the ESPN coverage of the WSOP Main Event fairly closely this year, pulling out interesting hands for “what-would-you-do?”-type strategy articles over on PokerNews. That meant I watched every hand from all 16 episodes, taking notes as I did.

I had an idea this week that it might be interesting to pull out the hands involving the November Niners -- Joseph McKeehen, Zvi Stern, Neil Blumenfield, Pierre Neuville, Max Steinberg, Tom Cannuli, Josh Beckley, Patrick Chan, and Federico Butteroni -- and find out what perhaps could be gleaned from the hands that were shown. I already had notes from each episode which to work, and so initially thought it might be a reasonable task, but eventually I got kind of bogged down with it all and the idea got aborted.

There were 284 hands (including partial hands) shown in the coverage. Of those about half of them involved November Niners, although about 20 or so of those hands were just them folding preflop. Still that left 121 hands in which we could actually talk about meaningful strategic decisions involving these players. These would be the hands, I’d imagine, that the players themselves focused on if they chose to study the ESPN shows at all when preparing for the final table.

Like I say, I didn’t want to do all of this and just toss it in the circular file, so I’m going to leave it here if only to remind me not to give myself such a ridiculous task again. What follows are short-hand notes of those 121 hands -- my actual notes for each hand are much, much more detailed, but they are also very messy and inconsistent. That’s not to say what appears below isn’t also messy and inconsistent, but at least the entries are short and easy enough to scan.

The numbers represent the episode (1 through 16) and the hand on that episode, so “1.10” means show #1, hand #10. An asterisk before the number means a November Niner was at risk of elimination in the hand. Most of them were shown in that spot at least once (including McKeehen with 46 left), Chan was twice, Butteroni three times, Blumenfield five times, and Beckley six times. In fact the only remaining player not shown all in and at risk at least once is Pierre Neuville.

McKeehen unsurprisingly got the most exposure in these hands among the nine (30 hands total, I believe), while Chan got the least by far (just five hands).

Tomorrow I’ll come back with a short post summarizing some thoughts about what I got from these hands insofar as they suggest anything meaningful about each player. Meanwhile I hope the list is understandable enough, for those who are curious.

1.10 McKeehen -- 535 left, gets Costello to make bad river call (knocks out Costello)

2.11 Butteroni -- 428 left, successfully bluffs Ron Ilani

4.13 Beckley -- ~285 left, successfully bluffs Schwartz

5.13 Steinberg -- 186 left, wins three-way hand with Bonomo (overcalls)
5.16 Steinberg -- 171 left, wins J-J vs. A-Q to knock out Jae Kim
5.19 Blumenfield -- 168 left, wins A-A vs. K-K to knock out Esfandiari

6.1 McKeehen -- 162 left, wins A-K vs. Q-Q to knock out Racener
6.6 McKeehen-Stern -- ~160 left, Stern bluffs river with air vs. McKeehen’s full house
6.8 Butteroni -- 138 left, wins A-A vs. 8-8 to knock out Lily Newhouse

7.3 Neuville -- 109 left, gets shoved on river, calls w/flush, knocks out Divella
7.10 Blumenfield -- ~100 left, wins with A-A w/o showdown vs. De Silva
7.11 Steinberg -- ~100 left, wins w/K-K w/o a showdown (gets value) vs. Bonomo (A-K)
7.15 Blumenfield -- ~100 left, wins multi-way hand calling down with flopped top pair
*7.20 Stern -- ~100 left, luckily survives AI Ac-9c vs. Diveglia’s Qs-Qc (rivers straight)
*7.21 Butteroni -- ~90 left, wins AI with K-K vs. Bonomo’s 10-10

8.1 Neuville -- ~90 left, wins with A-A vs. K-Q, knocks out Barabino
8.3 Blumenfield -- ~85 left, loses with J-J vs. Negreanu’s A-A (perhaps lucky to survive)
8.7 Neuville -- ~85 left, wins w/Q-7 vs. Morgenstern’s J-9 latter double-barrels, folds
8.8 Cannuli -- 83 left, wins with A-A vs. A-10, knocks out Diana Svensk
8.16 Blumenfield -- ~80 left, loses big (73% stack) w/K-K vs. Jarvis’s 6-6 (set)

*9.3 Beckley -- 69 left, gets AI after flopping set (three-way hand), survives
*9.4 Blumenfield -- ~69 left, luckily survives with K-J vs. Hastings’s A-3
9.6 Cannuli -- 63 left, wins A-K vs. KK, knocks out Mackoff
9.7 Steinberg -- ~63 left, 3-way vs. Negreanu/Anand; flops middle pair, c-r, wins
9.10 Beckley -- ~60 left, gets value vs. Jarvis calling down, then rivering flush
9.15 Butteroni-Neuville -- ~60 left, b-v.-b hand, Butteroni turns two pair, gets value
9.16 Cannuli -- ~60 left, wins smallish hand vs. Toole (and Berman who folds flop)
9.18 Beckley -- 58 left, tries to bluff Morfe and Morfe calls him down
*9.19 Blumenfield -- 58 left, AI on turn w/queen-high, luckily draws out vs. Hastings
9.20 Neuville-Butteroni -- ~58 left, 3-way hand, Neuville successfully bluffs pot
9.21 Cannuli-Steinberg -- ~58 left, four-way hand, smallish pot
9.25 Cannuli -- ~57 left, 3-way small hand with Minkin and Negreanu

10.3 Steinberg -- ~55 left, 3-way, Steinberg folds top pair to Schwartz turn bluff
*10.5 Beckley-Chan -- huge 3-way hand in which both Beckley & Chan AI, Chan wins
10.6 Beckley -- 53 left, knocks out Lewis after making tough call on turn
10.7 Cannuli -- ~52 left, 3-bets Schwartz from BB w/Q-7, flops two pair/folds to S flush
10.8 Steinberg -- ~50 left, wins small pot with J-J
10.12 Cannuli -- 49 left, wins one vs. Schwartz after drawing out two pair
10.15 Stern -- ~49 left, raises river w/second pair after Power’s bluff, gets fold
*10.16 Beckley -- ~46 left, 4 limp, Beckley r BB w/A-A, wins vs. Buckenmayer AI w/K-Q

*11.1 McKeehen-Beckley -- 46 left, M luckily wins AI A-Q vs. B’s A-K; rivers straight
11.4 Butteroni -- 44 left, loses hand to Clinger
11.5 Cannuli -- 43 left, raises over Steinberg/Schwartz limp w/Q-J, flops straight
11.8 Steinberg-Cannuli -- 41 left, multi-way pot; Cannuli loses to Negreanu w/trip J
11.9 Butteroni -- ~40 left, raises, then folds 9-9 after Turyansky AI
11.10 Chan-McKeehen -- 39 left, 3-way, M AI Q-Q, Chan f A-Q, Buckenmayer out A-K
11.13 Cannuli-Blumenfield -- 36 left, C raises K-6, Blum calls BB 10-9; Blum wins
11.15 Cannuli -- 35 left, loses small three-way pot
*11.17 Butteroni -- 34 left, luckily doubles with 6-6 vs. Brand’s 10-10 (flops quads)
11.18 Steinberg-Cannuli -- 34 left, S r K-K, C calls 9-9; C folds flop, S KOs Toole
11.20 Blumenfield -- ~34 left, makes ballsy AI bluff w/queen-high on river v. Ahmar
11.21 Stern -- 33 left, folds pocket nines after raise, call, reraise

12.2 Steinberg -- 31 left, opens w/9-9 and ends up getting value vs. Ahmar
12.3 Blumenfield -- 31 left, loses big to DNegs w/A-K vs. DN 6-3 (DN better str8)
12.4 Neuville -- 31 left, raises 5-5 then folds to a three-bet
12.5 Beckley-Neuville -- 31 left, Beckley triple-barrels, gets PN to fold better
12.8 Blumenfield -- 31 left, raises with J-J, AI on six-high flop, wins
12.9 Steinberg-Blumenfield -- 31 left, 3-way, Blum calls raise, wins decent pot (DN)
12.11 Blumenfield-Steinberg -- 31 left, Blum folds 9-9 to AI, Stein calls/loses w/7-7
12.14 Blumenfield -- 30 left, Blum calls BB w/Q-9, lets Schwartz bluff him out
12.15 Stern -- ~30 left, four-bets with 10-10, then folds to a big shove
12.16 Cannuli-Steinberg -- 30 left, C calls r w/J-J, S calls w/K-7, DN rr, both fold
12.17 Butteroni -- 29 left, limps SB with Q-10, flops trip 10s and knocks out Minkin
12.19 McKeehen -- 28 left, wins with A-Q vs. A-10, knocks out Moreno

*13.2 Butteroni -- 27 left, luckily wins with Q-Q vs. A-K, ace on flop, queen on turn
13.5 Butteroni -- 27 left, calls raise w/A-5, bluffs at flop, gives up on river (vs. DN)
13.4 Blumenfield -- 27 left, ends up earning some value vs. a bluffy Morgenstern
13.5 Neuville-Beckley -- 27 left, B flops top pair, but N runner-runner deuces
*13.6 Steinberg -- 27 left, doubles up with A-A vs. Negreanu’s 8-8
13.7 Neuville -- 27 left, calls raise with 5-4 suited, then folds to an all-in
*13.8 Chan-Beckley -- 27 left, Beckley (J-J) doubles through Chan (6-6)
13.12 Cannuli -- 24 left, wins with 10-8 vs. 3-3 to knock out Brand
13.13 Cannuli -- 23 left, DN raises, B folds 6-6, C reraises A-K, DN calls; C wins
13.16 Blumenfield -- 23 left, loses a lot with A-A vs. Hinds who rivers nut flush
13.17 McKeehen -- 23 left, wins big pot with K-K vs. Kearney’s 10-10, takes lead again
*13.18 Beckley -- 22 left, triples up with K-K (Neuville c/f K-Q pre)
13.19 Butteroni-Steinberg -- 22 left, table talk, Stein bluffs Butteroni out on river
*13.20 Blumenfield -- 21 left, AI with K-K and doubles through Hinds’s A-K
*13.21 Blumenfield -- 21 left, very next hand AI w/A-A, doubles through Hinds’s 10-10
13.22 Neuville -- 21 left, knocks out Sequiera in very interesting K-6 vs. Q-Q hand

14.1 Cannuli -- 19 left, battles with DNegs over small pot
14.2 Steinberg -- 19 left, a nothing hand
14.3 Butteroni -- 19 left, has J-J, to river w/Schwartz before S bluffs him out
14.7 McKeehen -- 18 left, battles with DNegs
14.8 Steinberg -- 18 left, wins with A-K vs. A-Q, knocks out Kramer
14.10 McKeehen -- 16 left, has A-A and five-bets DNegs who tank-folds A-K
14.11 McKeehen -- 16 left, calls Guan raise w/6-6, makes set, then quads, value
14.12 Neuville -- 16 left, wins with 8-8 vs. A-K, knocks out Stefanski
*14.13 Neuville-Cannuli -- 15 left, Cannuli (A-K) doubles through Neuville (A-9)

*15.1 Beckley -- 15 left, B calls BB 10-8 flops str8, AI flop/doubles thru Turyansky
15.2 McKeehen-Butteroni -- 15 left, both battle DNegs for pot, McKeehen wins
15.3 Cannuli -- 15 left, wins with A-10 vs. Q-Q, knocks out Kearney
15.4 Butteroni -- 14 left, calls BB w/8-5 suited, c-r flop w/mid-pair, Schwartz folds
15.5 McKeehen -- 14 left, set over set to knock out Schwartz
15.6 McKeehen -- 13 left, K-K gets value vs. DNegs with Q-J and top pair on flop
15.7 Cannuli-Chan -- 13 left, Cannuli 4-bets AI w/Q-Q, Chan folds J-7 after 3-bet
15.8 Cannuli-Stern -- 13 left, C (7-6) beats Stern (A-K); turns trips, Stern kings
15.9 Cannuli-Neuville -- 13 left, C raises with 10-5, bluffs N off hand on turn
15.10 McKeehen -- 13 left, DNegs doubles through with 4-4 vs. M’s A-7
15.11 Steinberg-Stern -- 13 left, Stein wins w/K-J vs. Stern A-Q; Stern b-f river
15.12 McKeehen-Beckley -- small hand
*15.13 Chan-Neuville -- 13 left, Chan survives with A-Q v. N’s J-J (flops flush)
15.14 Stern-Cannuli -- 13 left, Stern r/c 3-bet (A-K) w/Q-8; raise flop w/air, wins
15.16 McKeehen-Butteroni -- 13 left, w/Turyansky... Butteroni wins
15.17 McKeehen -- 13 left, raises with 8-7, then folds to a DNegs AI
15.18 McKeehen-Butteroni -- Butteroni wins with A-A vs. Q-Q, KOs Guan out 13th
15.19 Stern -- 12 left, raises w/10s8s, 4-bets AI, wins vs. Q-Q, McDonald 12th

16.1 McKeehen-Beckley -- 11 left, McK raise 6-6, Beck 3-bets A-J, McKeehen fold
16.2 McKeehen -- 11 left, raises/folds to a DN AI
16.3 Blumenfield-Stern -- 11 left, Stern AI on turn w/air v. Blum flush/doubles
16.4 Beckley-McKeehen-Butteroni -- 11 left, M 3-bets 7-6, Bu folds 8-8; Be folds pair
16.5 McKeehen -- 11 left, loses small one to DNegs
16.6 McKeehen -- 11 left, loses another small one to DNegs
16.7 McKeehen-Beckley -- 11 left, M rivers straight, goes AI, Beckley folds top pair
16.9 McKeehen -- 11 left, KOs DN after raising with J-3, DN just call BB w/A-4
16.10 Steinberg-McKeehen -- 10 left, S raise A-K, M 3-bets w/7-6, S 4-bets, M folds
*16.11 Beckley-McKeehen -- 10 left, B doubles w/A-Q vs. M’s 9-9 (Cannuli folded 9-9)
16.12 McKeehen -- 10 left, Turyansky luckily survives with A-J vs. M’s A-K
16.13 McKeehen-Neuville -- 10 left, Neuville flops set with J-J & wins big one vs. McK
16.14 Blumenfield-Neuville -- 10 left, Neuv wins 9-9 vs. Blum’s 8-8, Blum folds river
16.15 McKeehen -- 10 left, wins with Q-Q vs. A-K, knocks out Turyansky in 10th

Short-Handed, Short-Stacked, and Short-Changed

Have a postscript to share regarding yesterday’s discussion of the last part of Day 7 of the World Series of Poker Main Event (and ESPN’s coverage of it). Has to do with the short-handed play and a problem faced by some of the short stacks -- I’ll keep it short.

The episodes this week showed them play down from 15 players to nine, with Daniel Negreanu dramatically lasting as far as 11th place. While watching I was reminded of the significant faux pas made by the WSOP not to go to hand-for-hand play immediately after George McDonald’s knockout in 12th place. This issue wasn’t brought up at all on ESPN. It might have been, because it involved a mistake in judgment that affected who of the final 11 ultimately were able to make it to the final table.

After McDonald’s ouster, there were two short-handed tables, with the feature table being the shorter one with just five players. That’s where leader Joe McKeehen sat with a monstrous stack that dwarfed those of the other four players, including Negreanu.

In fact, for much of the sequence that followed, McKeehen was in first while the others were 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in the counts. He also was opening practically every hand and keeping the pressure on constantly (as he should have). Too bad for the short stacks, for sure, but that’s the luck of the seat draw and subsequent table-balancing.

What wasn’t fair, though, was the fact that at the five-handed table they were playing nearly twice as fast as at the outer six-handed table. Over the next hour-and-a-half, they played 48 hands at the feature table (with McKeehen winning 26 of them), while they only played 26 hands at the six-handed table.

Not incidentally, when McKeehen had the button, Negreanu was in the big blind, and we saw several hands in the coverage involving those two. Looking back through the live updates again, Negreanu was in the big blind 10 times during the non-H4H portion when there were 11 left. Meanwhile Patrick Chan -- who became the short stack on the outer table after Neil Blumenfield doubled up soon after McDonald’s ouster -- was in the big blind exactly five times during the same hour-and-a-half.

The WSOP finally decided to go to hand-for-hand once they reached the next level break, well after the many criticisms for not doing so had been fired over Twitter and across other social media. It then only took four hands more for Negreanu’s bust to come (in one last button-versus-big blind hand with McKeehen).

There were some strange pay jumps in play here, too, you might recall. Here’s how the top 11 spots of the WSOP Main Event pay:

1st: $7,683,346
2nd: $4,470,896
3rd: $3,398,298
4th: $2,615,361
5th: $1,911,423
6th: $1,426,283
7th: $1,203,293
8th: $1,097,056
9th: $1,001,020
10th: $756,897
11th: $526,778

This payout schedule also represented something that might have been done otherwise, and once it was announced during the early part of the Main Event many suggested problems with it and possible corrections.

Notice how the jumps between 11th and 10th ($230,119) and 10th and 9th ($244,123) are both much greater than the ones between 9th-8th, 8th-7th, and 7th-6th. Not that anyone is going to be less than cautious with 11 players in the WSOP Main Event, but those big jumps could obviously encourage players to play less quickly, especially if they saw short stacks at the other table being threatened by the chip leader.

The fact that the WSOP did finally exercise their judgment and go to hand-for-hand some 90 minutes after they should have shows they could have done it as soon as they got to 11 players. As I wrote about here back in July, the fact that they didn’t represented a serious mistake, one made more conspicuous (if not more significant) by the fact that Negreanu was among the players directly affected.

2015 WSOP Main Event: The Finale, Finally

The last of ESPN’s pre-November Nine episodes from the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event have now aired, and now everyone’s attention turns to the final table -- finally! -- which will begin this coming Sunday.

I ended up watching all 16 of the episodes which altogether added up to 19-and-a-half hours’ worth of shows on the ESPN networks. That counts commercials, of course, which I skipped through like most. I didn’t watch a single one of these shows live, choosing the NFL instead (usually) as just about every one of the premieres went up against football.

The coverage started with the beginning of Day 4 (after the money bubble had already burst on Day 3) and carried through the end of Day 7, taking viewers from 661 players down to nine. I enjoyed most of the shows, especially from Day 7. Daniel Negreanu’s deep run definitely helped -- he was a huge part of all of the episodes right up until the last half-hour of the last one.

It’s been at least a couple of years, perhaps three or four, since I actually sat down and watched every episode of ESPN’s WSOP Main Event coverage like this. Again, I can’t say they have done too much to alter the formula, which is probably on the whole a good thing even if one would like to think there are better ways of doing this sort of thing.

Seven years later, the final table delay still irks me. Negreanu’s desperate hanging on with the short stack before finally getting knocked out in 11th -- on a river card, too -- would have been utterly electric to watch live (or on a slight delay). But seeing it three-and-a-half months later was nowhere close to as exciting. (Even a far cry from the “Twitter rail” from that night in July.)

That other World Series wrapping up earlier this week got me thinking about how I experienced baseball as a kid. The first World Series I can remember watching was in 1977 when the Yankees beat the Dodgers in six games and Reggie Jackson hit five home runs -- three in the final game. What a thrilling series that was between two incredible teams full of characters and stars. And many of the games and plays remain etched in my memory, even decades later.

Meanwhile I was a Cincinnati Reds fan as a kid, and so I only indirectly was able to enjoy the Big Red Machine’s two wins in ’75 and ’76 after the fact via highlights, reading books and magazine articles, and so on. While I obviously can recall the image of Carlton Fisk urging his game-winner in Game 6 in ’75 to stay fair, I don’t remember much of anything else from those two series given the indirect way I originally “experienced” them.

It’s this latter way that we now experience nearly all of the World Series of Poker Main Event, save the final table. It’s a highlight show, and with such a huge distance between it happening and our getting to see anything it tends to pack the same, generally weak punch of seeing a few plays the morning after on SportsCenter. If that.

That said, I’ll confess watching all the shows definitely has me ready for Sunday night. I might even have to turn off the football for once.

By the way, if you want to play along with my series of "what-would-you-do?"-type strategy articles over on PokerNews stemming from the ESPN coverage (with poll questions about decision points), here are all of them:

“Watching Phil Hellmuth or ‘The Master at Work’”

”Daniel Negreanu Turns the Nuts -- Call or Reraise?”

”How Would You Respond to Negreanu’s Check-Raises?”

”Flopping Huge Versus Fedor -- Play Fast or Slow?”

”Pick Your Spots and Play Along with Max Steinberg”

”Negreanu and November Niners Playing Trouble Hands”

”Nearing the November Nine, What Would You Do?”

”Leader Joe McKeehen Pressures, How Do You Respond?”

Watching the 2015 WSOP: Those “In Between” Hands

Am continuing to follow the coverage on ESPN of the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event, spending another two-and-a-half hours with it this week as they showed the latter part of Day 6 when they played down from 45 players to 27.

That makes six weeks’ worth of Main Event shows totaling 13-and-a-half hours so far, all of which have focused on Days 5 and 6 (which in reality lasted a little over 19 hours of actual poker). Looking at what’s to come, there will be two more weeks of shows, again in two-and-a-half-hour blocks, all of which will be about Day 7 when they played from 27 to 9. Obviously the drama surrounding the last bustouts -- in particular Daniel Negreanu’s in 11th -- will highlight those episodes.

Then for three straight nights (Nov. 8-10) there will come the “live” coverage (with a delay) of the entire final table.

As I was mentioning here a couple of weeks ago, I’ve been watching with an eye toward selecting interesting hands to highlight in strategy articles over on PokerNews. In other words, preflop all-ins aren’t really registering with me very much, as those hands often feature only a couple of relatively simple decisions that aren’t so interesting to explore in any detail. Meanwhile longer hands that involve more postflop play -- especially those that make it all of the way to a showdown -- stand out as more engaging.

As it turns out, very few of these hands actually end in eliminations. Those who have played a lot of tournament poker know that shouldn’t be too surprising. The hand you go out on is typically not the one in which you made your most important decision of the tournament. In fact sometimes it isn’t even in the top five or ten... or for a tournament like the WSOP Main Event, the top 100.

Watching televised poker this way is a little like the inverse of NFL’s RedZone channel where they constantly race back and forth between live games to show touchdowns, turnovers, and other “action” plays affecting scores and outcomes. Instead I’m looking more intently what’s happening in between. Like plays affecting field position and down-and-distance (that set up the “action” plays), I’m scrutinizing the ones in which chips stacks changed, table images were sharpened, and circumstances evolved to influence subsequent shoves and knockouts.

There were 40 hands shown during the two-and-a-half hours this week (which in truth translates to a bit less than two hours, subtracting the commercials). Exactly half of them -- 20 -- were double-ups, knockouts, or uncalled all-ins.

Some of those 20 were not uninteresting, strategy-wise. For example Neil Blumenfield (who made the Nov. Nine) was shown pushing his short stack in multiple times after the flop and not getting called, sometimes in what appeared dicey spots to do so. And some of the other 20 weren’t that compelling either, but provided more exposure to the Nov. Niners and/or some interesting table talk.

All in all, though, I continue to find the shows enjoyable -- perhaps in part because for the first time in years I didn’t read every single live update as things were happening.

(EDIT [added 10/21/15]: If you’re curious about the hands I highlighted for this week’s “what would you do?”-style article, click here.)

The 2015 WSOP Main Event on ESPN (So Far)

ESPN’s coverage of the 2015 World Series of Poker has been up and running for four weeks now, with eight-and-a-half hours’ worth of shows shown so far. I think that total is correct, anyway, as an extra half-hour turned up this week.

They’ve moved the shows around some on the schedule, making it challenging to find them sometimes, although mostly they’ve been popping up on Monday nights. The strategy appears to be mostly to put the episodes on one network while NFL football is playing on the other, which I have to think hasn’t helped a lot with ratings. It also means I’ve actually never watched any of them initially but only later on DVR.

I’ve somewhat enjoyed the coverage thus far. I didn’t plan on it beforehand, but was inspired to start a series of strategy articles (over on PokerNews) each of which focuses on an interesting hand or two while giving readers a chance to play along. The response has been pretty good on these, which all include polls that invite you to pick how you would play a certain hand. (When setting the scene, I withhold the hole cards of the player with whom you play along.)

Here are those so far (the headline of the first one is quoting something a player said at the table):

“Watching Phil Hellmuth or ‘The Master at Work’”

”Daniel Negreanu Turns the Nuts -- Call or Reraise?”

”How Would You Respond to Negreanu’s Check-Raises?”

”Flopping Huge Versus Fedor -- Play Fast or Slow?”

I think all of them present genuinely interesting spots that are made a little more fun from a strategic standpoint when you don’t know all the players’ holdings. Watching the shows with an eye toward finding such spots is probably adding significantly to my enjoyment of them, too, I would venture.

As those titles suggest, the coverage to this point has featured a lot of Hellmuth (until he busted) and Negreanu, with the latter destined to be front and center all of the way up to the November Nine thanks to his near-miss of the final table.

They started with Day 4 this year, and by now they’ve gotten to the end of Day 5 at which point just 69 remain from the 6,420 who entered. Would have been preferable, I think, to start back on Day 1 and give a couple of hours to each of the days (rather than four or more for both Day 4 and 5), but obviously it’s cheaper to shoot fewer days.

Starting on Day 4 means they actually began after the bubble burst (on Day 3), which skips one of the more exciting moments of the Main Event. This year, too, with 1,000 players cashing, there were certainly dozens (if not hundreds) of cool stories about first-time players/cashers which might have been entertaining to hear about, along with all of the other fun stuff that tends to mark the early days of the WSOP ME.

Still, I’m finding I’ve been looking forward to the shows each week. Have you been watching at all? What do you think?

Tuning In: The 2015 WSOP Main Event Begins on ESPN

Saw our friend Kevmath tweeting a little earlier about viewers for last night’s initial two episodes from ESPN of their 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event coverage.

I was watching ESPN last night, although not the WSOP. Looking over at Sports TV Ratings’ numbers from Monday night, I was part of the group of 13.56 million watching the night’s first NFL game (Philadelphia at Atlanta) as well as part of the 14.33 million looking in on the second one (Minnesota at San Francisco).

I was also enduring some of that agony I was talking about yesterday after having picked both games incorrectly (in both cases going with “consensus” picks). (Argh!)

The episodes of the WSOP aired over on ESPN2 at 8 and 9 p.m. Looks like 245,000 were watching that first hour, then 414,000 tuned in for the second hour.

Instead of watching live, I DVR’d the poker and watched this afternoon. Was entertaining, I thought, in large part because of Phil Hellmuth being on the feature table for the entire two hours, then Daniel Negreanu getting seated there for the last 45 minutes or so of hour no. 2.

I also liked the snippets of talk from various players talking about what it meant to play the Main. That helped broaden things in such a way that it was possible to think of the larger context for the various hands that were shown. (Otherwise, it was hard -- as usual -- to think about how the tournament as a whole was going.)

Speaking of the number of people watching, at the end of one hand during the first part of the first hour, Hellmuth made a reference to his hand after being folded to, and when asked if he was telling the truth he said if he weren’t he’d “just lied in front a million people.”

Then he recalculated.

“Gonna be five million people watching this, at least.”

I believe last year’s Main Event final table -- the “almost live” November Nine, that is -- drew something like 1.15 million viewers, with the episodes leading up to it drawing considerably fewer. About a month ago I looked up some of these stats, finding that the 2008 WSOP ME final table had 2.364 million watching (the most of the Nov. 9 era).

This old PokerNews article from a decade ago lists some stats for ESPN’s WSOP episodes from back in the glory days. The article says in 2003 the average was 1 million viewers (for those seven Main Event episodes), in 2004 it was 1.5 million (for 22 hrs. of coverage, including non-ME shows), and in 2005 it was 1.1 million (for 32 hrs. of coverage).

No surprise to find that five million people watching a poker show didn’t happen even at the height of the poker boom. Nor is it to hear Hellmuth imagining five million are watching him.

A Look Back Before Lima

Am sketching out a quick post here mid-transit on my way back down to Lima, Peru where I’ll be covering the Latin American Poker Tour Peru Main Event for the PokerStars blog from Friday through Tuesday.

Like most of the poker world, I still have those last few hours of the World Series of Poker Main Event circling around in my noggin’. As is probably true for most, as the other stories of that finale fade a bit the one that will stick with us for the next short while -- and probably for longer than that -- was Daniel Negreanu coming oh-so-close to making it to the November Nine and thus to be front-and-center amid all of the hubbub he’d surely help build between now and then.

I’m seeing a few folks trying to go against the grain a bit with sorta-kinda provocative posts about how it didn’t matter so much “for poker” (as they say) for Negreanu to come up short. Or even that it is better somehow that he didn’t.

While I’m in agreement that poker won’t be overly negatively affected by his not being able to do the mainstream media rounds as one still in the hunt for the long-paused ME, I’m not really convinced by those who want to suggest it wouldn’t have been a net positive overall for that to have happened.

The NFL does fine regardless who makes it to the Super Bowl. So, too, does the NBA seem to make out all right regardless which teams get to the later rounds of its playoffs, although the MLB and NHL are perhaps affected somewhat when smaller-market teams compete for their respective championships. And I suppose golf and tennis tends to “need” (speaking in relative terms) recognizable names on the leaderboard to sustain interest and keep television ratings high.

Poker is different, though, functioning like a sport (especially when it comes to the WSOP Main Event) but also existing in many other ways that have different meanings for different people -- as a pastime, a hobby, a semi-serious recreation, a potential career, an actual career, or even just as something fun to watch like a drama series or (more similarly) a reality show.

I’ll be watching in November for sure, as usual, although I think a lot who might have if Negreanu was there probably won’t.

Anyhow, turning all that off now as I ready for Peru. It’ll be my fourth time there, I believe, and my mouth is already watering at the thought of the great eats that await. More to come.

WSOP “Play Down” Day: The Might-Have-Beens Begin

Well, that was exciting.

Everyone’s still reeling from Daniel Negreanu’s suspense-filled near-miss of the World Series of Poker Main Event final table, incredibly matching his best-ever finish from 2001 after getting knocked out in 11th.

The “Twitter rail” was tremendous last night, with Negreanu’s agent, Brian Balsbaugh, tweeting every hand Negreanu played and even every street at times, right up through the fateful knockout hand when Joe McKeehen spiked a needed card on the river. See the sequence at left, which I’ve turned upside down from earliest to latest to recreate the tension (click pic to embiggen).

After winning the first couple of hands yesterday to boost his stack well above average, Negreanu slipped back soon thereafter and was more or less just outside of or squarely within the danger zone most of the night as they played down from 27 to 11. Just before dinner he survived an all-in versus chip leader McKeehen that produced a lot of drama, but later on couldn’t fade his opponent’s many outs... and he was out.

There’s a lot worth discussing regarding what happened last night as well as what’s to come in November. I like McKeehen, whom I mentioned on Monday I first encountered when covering his victory in the WSOP Circuit Main Event at Caesars Atlantic City in early 2013.

From that tournament I recall he also experienced some run good near the end of the penultimate day, picking up pocket aces a couple of times to earn knockouts and carry a big lead to the final day. I remember him clearly being a solid tournament player, seemingly comfortable in every situation and especially well-suited to play with the lead (I don’t recall him being challenged much at all at that final table).

I also recall McKeehen being very social at the table and even supportive of others, including some obvious amateurs who made it relatively deep in the event. I’m not talking about Negreanu-level good will -- no one has that -- but enough for me to have banked it as one of my impressions of the guy at the time, and to make it nice to have seen him win the sucker. With more than twice the chips of his nearest challenger (the Israeli, Zvi Stern) heading into the final table, McKeehen is certainly a big favorite, and again I wouldn’t mind seeing him get there at the end.

Pierre Neuville (in fourth position) making it to the final table is another very cool story. The amiable Belgian is 72 years old -- the oldest November Niner ever -- and last night I enjoyed chatting with my Dad who also happens to be 72. Here’s hoping the hashtag “#NeuvemberNine” picks up again as the final table nears.

Meanwhile the 61-year-old Neil Blumfield (in third) also significantly skews the average age of this year’s ME final table. Max Steinberg (in fifth) is the only bracelet-winner of the bunch, and is a fun, talented player to watch. The others -- Thomas Cannuli (sixth), Joshua Beckley (seventh), Patrick Chan (eighth), and Federico Butteroni (ninth) -- we’ll get to know eventually, too.

My thoughts this morning, though, were mostly taken up with two takeaways from last night. One was the lamentable lack of any live stream for what was easily the most exciting night of the summer at the Rio. If you were on Twitter, you saw the frequent references by many to the fact that because of the ESPN contractual obligations our game’s “Super Bowl” must be necessarily experienced piecemeal when it is happening live -- via updates and other “coverage” such as Balsbaugh and others were providing -- and then only in an edited, spaced-out form months later.

It’s bad, and like others I wish it weren’t so. But clearly there was nothing the WSOP could do about that last night. The other focus of my thoughts, though, concerns something the WSOP did have control over.

After George McDonald got his queens cracked by Stern’s 10-8-suited to go out in 12th, they were six-handed at the outer table and five-handed at the feature. At the latter were seated McKeehen and four short stacks, Negreanu among them. A huge pay jump had arrived as well, as the next player out in 11th would earn $526,778 while the 10th-place finisher was due $756,897 -- a more than $230K jump which oddly was greater than the jumps from 9th to 8th, 8th to 7th, and 7th to 6th.

From that point forward, reading the updates on WSOP.com makes it glaringly apparent the pace of play at the feature table was much, much faster than on the outer table, with several hands being reported for the former in each post versus just a couple per post in reports from the latter.

With one less player and with players generally acting more quickly, the main feature table was blitzing along while the outer table inched slowly from hand to hand. If I’m counting correctly, by the time they reached the next break they had played 48 hands on the feature table and just 26 on the outer table.

After about an hour-and-a-half of this, with the start of a new level tournament officials finally decided to have the tournament played hand-for-hand. This was something I’d anticipated they’d do as soon as they’d gotten to 11 players, as I mentioned at the end of a PokerNews article yesterday titled “From 27 to 9: How Might the New Payouts Affect Play on Day 7 of the WSOP Main Event?”

In that article I talk about how the pace of play differed between the last few tables on “play down” day at the WSOP ME over the last couple of years. With such a huge pay difference, it seemed to me a trivial decision to go to hand-for-hand at 11 this year, but somehow they didn’t.

For a decent part of that sequence, McKeehen was the overwhelming chip leader and the other four players at his table were 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in the counts. McKeehen hammered away at them throughout, and they had to play nearly twice the hands as those at the feature table did during the same 90 minutes. A quick skim through those 48 hands shows McKeehen predictably involved in the great majority of them, and winning 26.

It only took four more hands before Negreanu’s bust at the start of the new level. The fact that they did at last go hand-for-hand shows they could have done it earlier. And they should have, because not doing so introduced unfairness into what was the most crucial period of the tournament up to that point.

Those are the thoughts I’m mulling over this morning. I suppose I’ll eventually get around to thinking about what might have been had Negreanu made it. But for now I’m distracted by this other “might have been” having to do with the decision not to go hand-for-hand immediately after McDonald’s knockout.

Negreanu’s Intentions

Folks have had fun with Daniel Negreanu’s frequent statements of his “intentions,” often delivered via Twitter, whenever he heads into a new day of tournament poker.

A short while before play begins, the newly-inducted Poker Hall of Famer will send his more than 365,000 followers or so a tweet starting “My intention is” with the rest spelling out some specific goal he intends to realize by the end of that day. Usually he lists a specific chip count for which he’s aiming, while sometimes he adds other less tangible intentions, too.

As he has explained in various forums, Negreanu’s motive for stating such intentions has to do with maintaining a positive, optimistic attitude about what he hopes to accomplish, not any particular superstition or other irrational purpose (as far as I’m aware).

About a half-hour ago Negreanu tweeted out his intentions for today, Day 7 of the World Series of Poker Main Event, which he’ll be starting in ninth position out of the final 27, his above-average stack of 8,495,000 representing a little under 71 big blinds when play begins in just a few minutes.

“My intention for day 7 of WSOP main event is to maintain focus and intensity, be compassionate, and reach the final table with 40 million” says Negreanu. That chip goal, if reached, might well put Negreanu in the chip lead as the tourney pauses nearly four months before resuming in November.

Of course, if Negreanu does survive the whittling down from 27 to 9 and make it through today -- no matter how many chips he has -- I think many of us already have an idea what his intentions will be during the long interruption of play. Never one to shy from the limelight, nor one to demonstrate reticence regarding the promotion of poker, I think it’s safe to assume he’ll show us once and for all what good might come from having someone who is already a full-fledged poker “ambassador” slotted into the November Niner role.

Former 2+2 Pokercast co-host Mike Johnson tweeted earlier today a question that suggested a little bit of skepticism about how exactly Negreanu making the November Nine will change the status quo as far as his already considerable influence is concerned.

“WSOP ME - someone needs to explain how Daniel winning helps poker?” asks Johnson. “He’s had a huge stage to promote/be an ambassador for yrs. It would be the same.”

It’s a valid question and point, I think. And it might well be true to say that whether Negreanu realizes his intention to make it the WSOP Main Event final table or not, the difference for the larger poker community -- ultimately -- might in fact be negligible.

But I think most of us are still curious to see what comes next, should that eventuality occur. That’s why my intention is to follow closely what happens.

Stories Upon Stories at the WSOP

Yesterday was definitely an interesting day to rail the World Series of Poker Main Event, which I find I’m doing mostly by shuttling between WSOP.com (for live updates and counts), the poker news sites (for spontaneous features), and Twitter (for reactions and discussion).

Lots of interesting stories emerging regarding the players who remain. As the day wore on, I found myself continually seizing on one particular plotline as “the” story of Day 5, then having that one be soon replaced by another and so on right up until the end of play.

Start-of-day chip leader Joe McKeehen spent a good portion of the afternoon on top of the counts, and he finished up with 3.66 million -- above the average (about 2.79 milly) and good for a spot inside the top 20 with 69 players left from the starting field of 6,420. McKeehen intrigues me mostly because I helped cover his win in a WSOP Circuit event in Atlantic City in March 2013, a tournament in which he conspicuously distinguished himself as a talented player and dominated at the close.

Brian Hastings ascent up the counts then led to thoughts about his complicated place in the poker world at present (see “The Battle of Hastings”). He finished the night at 4.74 million and in 10th position, and thus will continue to earn attention going forward, thanks also to his having won two bracelets already this summer which allows him to challenge for the lead in that strangely-calculated WSOP Player of the Year race.

Then it was Anton Morgenstern leaping to the fore, the player who entered Day 7 of the 2013 WSOP Main Event in first position with 27 left only to be ousted in 20th place. It wasn’t exactly a blow-up two years ago for the young German -- he experienced some bad fortune in two big hands against Mark Newhouse -- but still, it was a remarkable turn of events.

I still like to rib my friend Stephen Bartley for his tongue-in-cheek-but-still PokerStars blog post he published during Day 6 declaring “Why Anton Morgenstern will (probably) win the main event.” After leading for a short while yesterday, Morgenstern ended today with 4.2 million (17th of 69). See “Anton Morgenstern Getting the Second Chance of Lifetime” on PokerNews to read what Morgenstern is saying about his return trip to the latter stages of the ME.

Speaking of the PokerStars blog, the deep run of Team PokerStars Pro Daniel Negreanu will continue to keep them occupied over there as it has throughout the Main Event thus far. He has 3.62 million (in 22nd place) and chances are the closer he gets to the final table the more likely his story will be eclipsing everything else.

Then at another break the not-so-familiar name of Bruce Peery appeared in the top slot, with a tweet by Chris Moneymaker quickly helping everyone learn why he might be of interest to WSOP Main Event fans and historians. “Sick sweat at @WSOP #MainEvent,” wrote Moneymaker, “as best friend from 2003 and guy who lost half my action leading with 145 left.”

As Eric Raskin wrote about in his oral history The Moneymaker Effect (2014) as well as in the preview Grantland article “When We Held Kings,” Peery was the fellow who told Moneymaker not to aim for fourth place and a cash prize of $8,000 in that final PokerStars satellite back in ’03 but to try to win one of the three Main Event packages, ensuring his friend he’d give him $5,000 and take half his action. Alas for Peery, he backed out of the deal and thus missed out on being able to claim half of Moneymaker’s $2.5 million score.

Tim Fiorvanti jumped on that story yesterday for BLUFF, talking to Peery to get more details which Tim shared in “Moneymaker Legend Grows as Bruce Peery Takes WSOP Main Event Lead.” Peery will begin today in 35th position with 2.4 million.

But finally it was Pierre Neuville’s story that ultimately pushed past all of these, just as his chip count managed to exceed everyone, too, by night’s end. The 72-year-old finished with 7.105 million to lead all and grab away the Day 5 headlines.

We’ve all gotten to know Neuville over the years as the very amiable Belgian who earned a reputation as the “Serial PokerStars Qualifier” after winning seats in 23 straight EPT events online. He only took up poker seriously after retiring from a lengthy career in business, I believe, and has earned nearly $2.2 million in live tourney cashes (plus a lot online, too) over the last eight years or so including a two runner-up finishes in EPT Main Events and another second-place in a WSOP bracelet event.

If you don’t know Neuville, check out this interview Remko Rinkema did with him at EPT Deauville earlier this year to hear him explain how “poker makes me younger every year”:

Impossible not to pull for Neuville, and his story -- just like his chip stack -- will take precedence when they get going again today. But with all of these other stories -- and players -- still in the mix, the overall narrative should continue to take some interesting turns.

1 to 1,000

Today (Day 3) the 2015 World Series of Poker money bubble will burst. For the last several years that moment has come during Day 4, usually late in the afternoon, although I’m recalling one memorable instance in 2010 when they were four off the money and went to dinner break, stretching out the suspense an extra hour-and-a-half.

After initially announcing just before Christmas a plan to repeat last year’s Main Event payout schedule and guarantee $10 million for the winner, there was a lot of less than enthusiastic response over Twitter, prompting the WSOP to do a survey and then change their plans in late January.

The new schedule jettisoned the $10 milly guarantee in favor of accepting two different ideas proposed by players -- guaranteeing each of the nine players who make the final table at least $1 million, and also paying the top 1,000 finishers. Both of those ideas came with conditions, which then were restated in the structure sheet for the Main Event.

Regarding the first, “The final table of this event will each receive a minimum of $1,000,000 if this event reaches or exceeds the 2014 entry number.” As it happened, the 6,420 playing the Main this year didn’t quite reach or exceed the 6,683 of a year ago, but when the prize pool and payouts were announced on Wednesday the WSOP decided to stick with the idea, anyway. Probably a good call, actually, if only to prevent what would likely have been a lot of acrimony to bookend the outcry that happened at the start of the summer with the “Colossus surprise.”

The other condition stated “This event will payout 1,000 places and pay a minimum payout of $15,000 if the event reaches a minimum of 5,000 players.” They got there easily enough, and indeed the schedule does call for those finishing 649th-1,000th to earn exactly $15,000. In fact, the payouts ended up very closely following what my friend Darrel Plant surmised was going to be the case in a table he created for PokerNews back in late January in which he estimated what they would be by looking at last year’s turnout.

There has been a lot of positive reaction to the idea of paying 1,000 players, even if over a third of them are only going to get 1.5 times their buy-ins, and less than half will double their money. And I think when we get to Monday and Tuesday -- the last days of play this summer -- there will again be some added excitement when that “November Nine” bubble arrives and players are eyeing the seven-figure score awaiting those who make it to the final table.

Paying a little under 15.6% of the field is not so far out of the norm for tournament poker to be that strange, I think. And there will no doubt be a lot of happy stories surrounding those realizing the achievement of cashing in the Main Event today, which will be fun to follow.

Thinking back to how the WSOP Main Event began as a winner-take-all affair. From 1971 (the first year they held a tournament) through 1977, only one player made the money. It wasn’t until 2004 that more than a thousand actually played the event (the post-Moneymaker year the turnout jumped from 839 to 2,576).

Now a thousand players are actually getting a piece of the prize pool. And I’m going to guess they’ll keep this payout schedule in place at least for the near future, too.

WSOP Main Event Holds Steady (Again)

They’ve begun Day 2 at the World Series of Poker Main Event. I know the excitement will start to build in earnest once we get to the weekend and the final table starts to shape up, but at the moment things seem oddly anticlimactic. I guess the absence of live streams at this point (and from hereafter) and other changes have diminished the hype this year a bit, at least for me.

Even with Phil Hellmuth and Phil Ivey playing at the same table yesterday during Day 1c, the highlight thus far -- for what it’s worth -- seems to have been watching to see where the final total number of entrants was going to settle.

I had been posting of late about the various predictions people were making before the WSOP began. The PokerNews guys’ guesses for this year’s Main Event turnout ranged from 6,150 to 6,800. I was on the higher end of that spectrum, having guessed 6,774. The total finally settled at 6,420 -- very close to Chad Holloway’s guess of 6,400 and Donnie Peters’s of 6,480.

That’s down, of course, from the 6,683 who played the Main Event a year ago (about a 4% drop), although more than the 6,352 who played in 2013.

Meanwhile because of the newly-introduced payouts (including ensuring all who make the final table will earn at least $1 million), first place is getting “only” $7,680,021 this year. You have to go all of the way back to 2004 when Greg Raymer earned $5 million for becoming the champ to find a lower first prize.

Even so, I think the turnout total represents another example of “holding steady,” which has to be regarded as a victory of sorts for the WSOP and Caesars -- not unlike a player who keeps getting dealt marginal hands yet keeps his stack roughly where it is.

Not sure how many exactly made it through the three Day 1 flights -- there were conflicting totals reported all over, but it looked like something close to 4,400 or so. The fact that 1,000 are getting paid this year will make the bubble bursting come a little earlier, probably sometime late Friday (I imagine) after the various flights all combine for Day 3.

Like I say, it all feels pretty even keel at the moment, but hopefully once they get into the money the subsequent days will provide a little more drama.