The Green-Eyed Monster

Noticed over the weekend that a new thread had popped up on Two Plus Two begun by the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event champion, Joe Cada. Cada’s post begins “Lets first by saying if anyone thinks I'm denying I got lucky at the final table then im not.”

The rest of Cada’s message is a bit difficult to parse, but he appears to be both acknowledging his having been the beneficiary of some good cards on his way to winning the Main Event while defending himself as a skillful player who made some good decisions, too.

“Did I run like god at the final table 100 percent correct,” he admits. Then, referring to that big hand versus Antoine Saout (Hand No. 272), Cada writes “Now 22 when your playing 3handed opening basically every pot and the person to the left of you is really aggr and has 3bet a lot and you have 40 bb with tons of fold equity noting 1hand he thought up to 5min getting it in preflop to a button 4bet after he 3bet with ak in bb is not bad.”

Like I said, a bit difficult to parse. More than a bit, actually. “Some may not understand this but oh well,” adds Cada. Not sure if he’s referring to the play or the way he’s described it.

The post generated many responses, with some congratulating Cada for his win while others took it as bait to issue further challenges regarding Cada’s poker playing ability. The responses are somewhat interesting, I guess, but more intriguing to me is the fact that Cada felt the need to defend himself at all. His post obviously responds to other threads and reactions to last week’s final table, particularly those that characterized Cada and his opponent Darvin Moon as somehow undeserving of having landed the top two spots in poker’s biggest tourney.

The thread made me think of something I’d heard on the Casino City Gang podcast late last week. Have been enjoying that weekly show -- hosted by Vin Narayanan, Gary Trask, and Dan Igo -- quite a bit. In this most recent episode (the 11/12/09) episode, the trio shared reactions to the November Nine. Toward the end of the discussion, Trask noted how disappointing it was that so few of the top pros -- many of whom had been there on Saturday -- did not come back to the Penn & Teller Theater on Monday night for the heads-up portion.

That led to some speculation about why so few were there for the finale, with Narayanan suggesting that some of “these pro players are stung by the fact that they are not winning the Main Event,” and that until one of them does, it will continue to be “a big sore point among the top professional players.”

Narayanan then talks a bit about Mike “The Mouth” Matusow, who had been there to see Phil Ivey bust on Saturday, but did not come back on Monday. Matusow did send some tweets on Monday, however, showing that he was following the action. Narayanan notes how Matusow “was just killing” Cada and Moon on Twitter, “talking about how the two biggest luckboxes of the tournament were sitting there playing for [the championship] and that poker was not a game of skill anymore.”

Indeed, over @TheMouthMatusow the pro starts by saying “I can't go see the two worst players of the final 9 play for pokers biggest prize its too embarrassing,” then adds “These 2 hu os a new low point for poker as any kind of skilled game so om staying home gl to both.” He goes on to call Cada “a stone idiot” who has “no clue how to play poker,” before finally signing off with less-than-sincere sounding congratulations and a final message that “this is a lesson on bow not to play hu poker.”

Kind of an interesting phenomenon, the way that this year’s final table generated this sort of response. Of course, it happens just about every year -- doesn’t it? Not sure what I think of the whole “pros are jealous because they aren’t winning” argument, but I think we’re all pretty familiar with how one poker player’s success at the tables tends to elicit others’ envy. One could argue there is something in human nature that makes us that way. As Jonathan Swift once wrote in his elegy to himself “Verses on the Death of Dr. Swift” (1731), “What poet would not grieve to see / His brethren write as well as he? / But rather than they should excel, / He’d wish his rivals all in hell.”

Speaking of good writers, I just finished Vicky Coren’s For Richer, For Poorer: A Love Affair with Poker this weekend, and it is absolutely terrific. Very smart, witty, even “literary.” I plan to say more about the book here eventually, but I will share one passage she includes about poker players and “schadenfreude” -- that weird, German-derived word that refers to our tendency to derive pleasure from others’ misfortune.

“Poker players are the bitterest, most resentful, most grudging, most jealous humans on the planet,” writes Coren. “They enjoy nothing more than schadenfreude. They hate nothing worse than someone else’s success. They are happiest when describing a huge pot lost by a regular opponent. They don’t care who won it.... That delights them.”

“God, I love them,” Coren adds, a kind of winking punchline to the discussion.

And really, you have to. ’Cos that’s how people -- especially poker players -- are, for the most part. So all you winners out there, don’t expect everyone else to rejoice in yr triumphs.

Pollack Moves On, WSOP Commish Seat Open

From a poker news perspective it has certainly been a WSOP-centric week. The November Nine finally played out, with the final table shown over on ESPN. Sounds as though the ratings for that FT broadcast dipped slightly from last year’s November Nine show, but essentially held steady. In 2008, the rating was 1.9, which meant about 1.9 million households and 2.36 million average viewers. In 2009, the rating was 1.8 -- a little over 1.8 million households and 2.1 million average viewers. Of course, both FTs represent a big jump from 2007, when the rating was just 1.4.

A little surprising for most, I think, that this year’s November Nine -- with Phil Ivey, Jeff Shulman, and a few other personalities/stories to generate added interest -- didn’t improve on last year’s total. But perhaps our perspective is blinkered a bit, for a couple of reasons.

One might simply be the fact that a poker show can only attract so much attention; that is to say, there might well be a ceiling of sorts when it comes to the number of viewers even the best possible poker show can attract -- a possibility some don’t necessarily want to consider.

There’s another reason, though, why I think we tend to see a lack of obvious growth as a negative. Having witnessed the recent “boom” in poker, we came to expect big, dramatic jumps from year to year, and when they don’t come, the resulting impression is unfavorable, even if holding steady ain’t necessarily such a bad thing, big picture-wise.

The week concludes with yet another big WSOP story, this one regarding the Commish, Jeffrey Pollack. Pollack came on the scene just as the “boom” was booming, and has been at the helm ever since. He has announced that today will be his last day as Commissioner of the World Series of Poker.

Pollack came to the WSOP from the professional sports world. He started The Sports Business Daily in the mid-90s, a trade publication covering the business side of sports that still exists as an important “insider” voice today -- the sort of thing that industry leaders routinely consult for its commentary and reporting.

Not surprising, then, that from there Pollack would move over into the business of sports, first as a communications consultant to the NBA. Pollack began working with the NBA during the 1998-99 lockout, and eventually was named the league’s Vice President of Marketing & Corporate Communications. Then Pollack moved over to NASCAR, where for five years he held a similar position -- Managing Director of Broadcasting and New Media -- in which he was heavily involved with the promotion and marketing of the sport.

In 2004, Harrah’s Entertainment purchased Binion’s Horseshoe, which included taking over the World Series of Poker. The following year Harrah’s relocated the fast-growing Series from the humble downtown casino to the spacious ballrooms of the Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino (although the WSOP ME final table was played back at Binion’s in 2005 as a kind of last waltz).

Among its other initial moves, Harrah’s hired Pollack away from NASCAR to become the Vice President of Marketing for the WSOP, and so he joined the circus right as the “boom” was happening. Then, at the start of 2006, Harrah’s created a new position -- a Commissioner of the WSOP -- and named Pollack as the first occupant of that seat.

That first year -- 2006 -- was the WSOP’s biggest ever in terms of Main Event entrants (8,773). Then came the surreptitious passage of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006. Coincidentally, it was also Friday the 13th (10/13/06) when then President George W. Bush signed that sucker into law.

The “boom” was over, but the WSOP would still continue to grow, and Pollack certainly deserves a lot of credit on that front. Poker is a much harder sell than is basketball or stock car racing. Our buddy Otis wrote a terrific piece last summer over on Tao of Poker in which he did a nifty job characterizing the difficulty of Pollack’s task.

“Pollack has a big league ‘My Fair Lady’ job to do on the World Series and he has to make sure it sticks,” writes Otis. “He's working with a world that polite society doesn't want to admit exists and he has to put enough makeup on it to make sure it can handle the occasional smeared mascara. And he has to do all of it without painting the WSOP into a whore.”

Pollack faced other challenges as well, most particularly from the old guard who regarded the WSOP changing from a relatively small, private gathering of friends to a massive, public spectacle with either discomfort, frustration, or outward disgust. It was easy for those critics to target the new guy Pollack, though in some respects he wasn’t necessarily the one deserving of such invective. Like others, I, too, have misgivings about the seeming “corporatization” of poker and the WSOP, but all things considered found Pollack a highly positive figure whose contributions to (and management of) the WSOP’s growth was especially constructive.

I also found Pollack an amiable and very forthright guy whenever I heard him interviewed in podcasts -- something he did on many occasions. Dr. Pauly notes how the Commish never gave him any indication that he couldn’t write whatever he wanted when gonzo-reporting on the WSOP, and while I can’t pretend to speak for everyone, I think most others in the media probably shared that appreciation.

I remember last summer during one of the dinner breaks sitting in the Amazon Room having a Capriotti’s sandwich and surfing online. Read a tweet from Pollack noting that he was watching Game 7 of the NHL finals on the other side of the Amazon, so I walked over and joined him to see the Penguins beat the Red Wings in a thrilling finish.

“Have a seat,” he said invitingly as I arrived, indicating an available chair.

Indeed, that was the message Pollack most earnestly tried to convey time and time again as the WSOP Commish. You’ll recall the Day 1d debacle this year, when players who’d come for seats in the Main Event had to be turned away, a day that I’m going to guess was Pollack’s most difficult during the nearly four years of his tenure. Because really, the message one always heard Pollack trying to convey -- either explicitly or as a subtext -- was that when it came to the WSOP, everyone was invited.

Best of luck to Pollack, and to whomever ends up taking his now empty seat.

* * * * *
By the way, my second Betfair piece appears this morning -- an interview with James McManus. Check it out. Will probably move on to write about other, non-book related topics over there soon, but will always be including book reviews (and hopefully more interviews) as well.

Have a good weekend, all.

Reading & Writing

Had a long, long day of “real” life applesauce yesterday. Yea, I’m talking about the “day” job, which as of late has been turning into the “night” job, too, I’m sorry to report. Don’t plan to go into detail here -- as I said to a friend recently when the subject came up, the only thing worse than a bad beat story is to hear someone whimpering about his or her job. Suffice to say yr humble gumshoe has a lot else he’d rather be doing these days.

Changes are a afoot, though. Like hard-boiled writers do, I’ll leave that as a cliffhanger for now. Let’s turn the page.

Speaking of, for those who like hard-boiled fiction, my non-poker-related detective novel, Same Difference, is available for purchase. Makes a great Christmas gift! Am still waiting for it to turn up over on Amazon and other sites. (Thought that would have happened by now, but am still in limbo on that front.) Meanwhile, you can get it directly from Lulu by clicking here.

Big thanks to those who have picked it up already, and especially those who’ve read the sucker and sent along nice feedback. It’s a first novel, and I’m much encouraged to take what I’ve learned on this one as I set to work on a second.

The fact is, I have been thinking a lot recently about books and authors and the publishing world these days, mainly thanks to the books I happened to be reading. I’ve had the opportunity to review James McManus’s new one in a couple of places, Cowboys Full: The Story of Poker, including over at Betfair where I’ve begun a new weekly column. As I mentioned last week, I was able to interview McManus as well, and will be posting that interview as a follow-up piece over at Betfair tomorrow.

Other current poker reads at the moment are also in the non-strategy category. Am moving through Vicky Coren’s For Richer, For Poorer: A Love Affair with Poker, a smart, funny, literary memoir telling the story of Coren’s life and poker career. Coren does have an EPT title and other poker achievements to report, but she’s also a genuinely gifted writer, thus making her book especially enjoyable. Fans of McManus, Alvarez, Holden, et al. should really like this one, I’d think.

Also have just recently cracked open a copy of Doyle Brunson’s recently published autobiography, The Godfather of Poker, written with Mike Cochran. Have only glanced at the contents, but first appearances suggest a comprehensive telling of Texas Dolly’s story, which I imagine will include several familiar anecdotes -- especially for those who have read his Super/System or other books that include Brunson yarns -- as well as new material. By the way, the Entities over at Wicked Chops have interviewed Brunson about the book -- check it out.

The book is a handsomely bound hardback with what’s called “rough trim,” meaning that when the book is closed the pages have a jagged edge -- the kind of thing you see sometimes with older books, but not so much these days.

As I was reading about on the Gamblers Bookshop blog last month, some might think the use of this cut “looks like it’s defective but that’s the way the publisher wanted it.” I kind of like it (see pic), which along with the cover photo kind of lends the book a stately, dignified appearance that seems to suit Brunson’s status in the poker world.

As understood by just about everybody but Joan Rivers, that is.

Will be reviewing both Coren and Brunson’s autobiographies in the coming weeks elsewhere, though I’ll say something here about them as well, I imagine. Like I say, reading these books -- all of which can be regarded as the end results of long-term, carefully-nurtured meaningful projects for the respective writers, has gotten me thinking more and more about “the writer’s life.”

And how such a life seems to me like it might be worth living. (Stay tuned!)

Looking Back: 2009 WSOP November Nine on ESPN

Thoroughly enjoyed ESPN’s rapidly-produced, two-and-a-half hour repackaging of the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table last night. Liked the features and rhythm of the thing. Thought Norman Chad had a few genuine zingers in there, adding to the fun. My favorite was probably when Steve Begleiter put in the first reraise in that infamous Hand No. 90 versus Darvin Moon, and Chad quipped “That’s a big bet, particularly in this economy.” That was some good funny.

Did appreciate the extra half-hour, mostly taken up with the heads-up battle in which Joe Cada outlasted Darvin Moon. Actually by the very end of the show I was starting to feel like it didn’t really need to be much longer than it was. Perhaps having followed the action so closely as it happened made me less eager to see every hand again, but I think two-and-a-half hours of this sort of thing is probably plenty.

Liked the sportsmanship at the very end quite a bit. Also thought Phil Ivey came off as the coolest cat ever.

Was also thinking quite a bit during the show of the whole “luck-vs.-skill” contest once again, wondering now and then how it all might have appeared to those less familiar with what happened during the 364 hands and/or those who are less versed in poker, generally speaking. Did the selection of hands make it look like poker was a game of skill? Or did it come off as a drama-filled series of coin-flips in which chance ruled?

One of the most interesting aspects of poker, actually, is how difficult it is to say definitively whether in any given hand “luck” or “skill” prevailed. Outcomes are driven both by players’ actions and the cards dealt. In fact, two people watching (or playing) the same hand may likely come away with differing opinions about whether a hand was skillfully played or “played itself.” And it goes without saying that a person’s judgment is also highly influenced by his or her own poker-playing experience and knowledge.

I made a note last night of which hands were being shown. Of the 364 total hands, we got to see 32 on the telecast. Not going to rehearse all of the details of each hand here (you can read about them further on the PokerNews live blog), but here is a list with hand numbers and brief reminders of the action. You decide whether in each hand “luck” or “skill” seemed more important:

Hand No. 11 -- Moon limp-reraises with from late position, forcing Schaffel to fold pocket nines in the big blind

Hand No. 14 -- Ivey’s all-in shove with pocket kings forces folds from Cada (pocket tens) and Shulman (pocket fives)

Hand No. 44 -- Akenhead survives going all in with K-Q versus Buchman’s A-K by spiking a queen on the river

Hand No. 45 -- Moon’s crazy play with A-4 versus Saout’s sorta crazy play with J-2 in which the latter fortunately flopped two pair; “I messed up big time,” said Moon afterwards

Hand No. 53 -- Cada’s loses a lot with versus Moon after flopping a flush draw, then not getting there

Hand No. 54 -- Schaffel doubles up with pocket aces versus Akenhead’s pocket kings

Hand No. 59 -- Akenhead eliminated when his 3-3 can’t catch up to Schaffel’s 9-9

Hand No. 68 -- Schaffel eliminated with pocket aces versus Buchman’s pocket kings when a king flops, then Buchman makes quads on the turn

Hand No. 90 -- Moon’s crazy flop fold getting 8-to-1 or something versus Begleiter (see discussion here); Moon did have , it turned out, and Begleiter (overs, straight outs, and nut flush draw); and did Moon tell his wife he had queens afterwards???

Hand No. 92 -- Shulman folds pocket nines to Ivey’s all-in reraise with K-Q offsuit

Hand No. 106 -- With ace-high, Ivey pushes Begleiter off his pocket sevens on the river after a scary group of community cards had arrived

Hand No. 112 -- Ivey raises UTG with pocket jacks, Saout reraises from the button with pocket sevens, and Ivey folds (I believe this was the very last hand before the dinner break)

Hand No. 122 -- Shulman takes a big chunk from Cada when his A-K outlasts Cada’s A-J

Hand No. 131 -- Cada survives with pocket fours against Ivey’s

Hand No. 153 -- Saout and Begleiter get all of the Frenchman’s chips in on an flop; Saout has the flush draw, and Begleiter a pair of eights; the flush comes

Hand No. 175 -- Moon’s A-Q eliminates Ivey who had A-K after a queen flops; loved Ivey’s line when the turn brought a trey: “Close.”

Hand No. 187 -- Moon again uses A-Q to eliminate Begleiter, whose pocket queens turned to mush after an ace came on the river

Hand No. 195 -- Cada survives, spiking a set with pocket treys versus Shulman’s J-J

Hand No. 199 -- Cada’s pocket rockets survive versus Moon’s K-9 offsuit

Hand No. 236 --Shulman eliminated when his pocket sevens lose race to Saout’s A-9

Hand No. 259 --Buchman wins a big chunk of Saout’s stack after heavy betting on a ten-high flop; Saout had a ten, but Buchman had the better hand with A-A

Hand No. 264 -- Buchman loses a bunch back to Saout with A-Q versus the Frenchman’s A-K

Hand No. 271 -- Moon () eliminates Buchman (), turning a king

Hand No. 272 -- Cada survives, spiking a set with pocket deuces versus Cada’s Q-Q

Hand No. 276 -- Saout eliminated with pocket eights versus Cada’s A-K after Cada rivers a king

Hand No. 277 -- Moon slowplays pocket queens in first hand of heads up; ends up winning a decently-sized pot versus Cada’s 9-9

Hand No. 288 -- Moon check-raises with air on flop, then turns a queen to make top pair, ends up getting Cada to call a big value bet on end

Hand No. 293 -- Cada turns top two pair with and forces Moon to fold his fourth-best pair on the river

Hand No. 323 -- Moon pushes Cada off of his A-Q with a preflop four-bet; Moon says “I had a monster,” but it was A-J

Hand No. 347 -- Moon and Cada both have J-9 offsuit, but Moon’s aggressive betting gets him the pot on the turn

Hand No. 356 -- With the board , Cada makes the big call with all of his chips with ; Moon has , and Cada’s hand holds up

Hand No. 364 -- Cada wins the bracelet when his pocket nines outlast Moon’s

So what was your impression? Or your impression of how other viewers might have seen the show? Does poker look like roulette, or chess?

(Photos courtesy the great FlipChip, natch.)

Comeback Kid Cada 2009 WSOP Main Event Champ

Sat up into the wee hours following online that there heads-up clash last night. Went much longer than most observers -- including yr humble gumshoe -- had guessed it would. Over three hours, I believe, with Joe Cada finally outlasting Darvin Moon in a genuinely compelling, hard fought battle for the bracelet.
(Photos in this post by the great FlipChip, natch.)

Had great fun following the coverage on PokerNews, reading all the tweets, and listening to the Bluff Magazine audio. Usually I’d first read insta-reports of each action on Twitter, then hear David Chicotsky, Phil Hellmuth, Joe Sebok, and a rotating group of others comment on the Bluff feed, then read the short hand narratives by FerricRamsium and Donnie Peters. I’d also occasionally skip over to Dr. Pauly’s live blog, the ESPN blog kept by Andrew Feldman, the PokerStars blog, and a few other sites, too, to help fill out the scene. (Oh, and while yr poking around those links, check out F-Train's “November Nine Errata” for a few more items of interest.)

Altogether gave a pretty good sense of what was happening, although I’ll certainly be intrigued to watch what ESPN puts together for tonight’s show, too.

As I say, the action last night was fairly gripping, I thought. Some high-drama hands in there, as well as enough back-and-forthing for some thought-provoking patterns to emerge.

It appeared on the very first hand that Moon had missed a great opportunity -- and perhaps displayed yet another example of awkward (or flat-out bad) play. Moon chose to limp in from the small blind/button, and we’d soon learn he held pocket queens. Cada then raised to 3.5 million from the big blind, and Moon called. The pair managed to put another 20 million each in the middle on the next two streets, but both checked the river, at which point Cada showed pocket nines. The two kings and one ace among the community cards surely kept all of Moon’s chips from going into the middle in that one, and it seemed clear that had he gone ahead and committed them preflop, Cada probably would’ve come along.

In other words, it looked like from the first hand that Moon should have doubled up and taken the chip lead away from Cada, but instead he’d only closed the gap to about 110 million to 85 million. It also looked like the night was going to be over quickly.

But that didn’t happen. For the next ten hands Moon chipped away, then took the lead in Hand No. 12 of heads up. Cada raised his button to 2.5 million for the sixth straight time, and Moon called. The flop came , Moon checked, Cada continued for 3.5 million, and Moon check-raised to 8.5 million. Cada called. Both checked the turn, then when the river came , Moon bet 7.25 million and Cada called him. Moon showed -- the flop check-raise had been with air, and he’d paired up on the turn -- and Cada mucked.

Was partly happenstance, but somehow Moon had gotten the lead without going all in. Not once had Moon been all in with his tourney life at risk for the entire WSOP Main Event. That streak was still alive! And would remain so until the very last hand of the tournament, in fact.

After those first dozen hands it had become clear that Moon (a) was not going to play a passive, easily exploitable game, and (b) was not appearing to be playing an orthodox or “standard” game, either. Won’t presume to judge how well either player played without seeing hole cards, but it certainly seemed that despite Moon’s own protestations that he’d had practically zero experience at heads up, he was providing Cada -- who plays mostly heads-up online -- a genuine challenge.

Cada would soon take the lead back, though. And by the time they took their first break of the night (after 52 hands played) they were essentially dead even. Over the next dozen hands Moon took several sizable pots, and suddenly he was sitting with a nearly 3-to-1 chip advantage with 145 million to Cada’s almost 50 million. Cada pushed all in before the flop on Hand No. 70 of heads up, but Moon declined. Then in Hand No. 80 came what was really the pivotal moment of the match.

The blinds at that point were 600,000/1.2 million (with a 200,000 ante). Cada raised to 3 million from the button, and Moon called. The flop came , and both checked. The turn brought the , and after Moon checked Cada bet 3 million. Moon check-raised all in, and after a long think Cada made the call with . Moon showed -- an open-ended straight draw. The river was the , and Cada had rebounded to take the lead once more.

An interesting play by Moon, and it sounded like Cada nearly let go of his hand, but he ultimately made the big call. There was a little break right after that hand, and one could hear the two players talking in the background of the Bluff Magazine audio broadcast. Cada could be heard sincerely complimenting Moon’s play, making reference to the fact that he plays a lot of heads up and that Moon compared favorably to his usual competition. Struck me as a pretty mature-sounding thing to say for the kid from Michigan who doesn’t turn 22 until later this month. Also humble, providing a stark contrast to the commentary by Hellmuth in the foreground.

Speaking of the Poker Brat, he was just 24 when he won the 1989 WSOP, holding pocket nines for the winning hand. And as it would turn out, Cada would also have pocket nines -- -- in Hand No. 88 of heads up, what would turn out to be the last hand of the night.

Again Cada raised to 3 million from the button, Moon reraised to 8 million, Cada pushed, and Moon called with . The board ran out , and Cada became the youngest Main Event champ ever.

After a wild Saturday night/Sunday morning full of surprising suckouts and some pretty obvious missteps, it seems that Monday’s denouement helped improve the reputations of both players as skillful competitors. While each surely benefited from good fortune, sometimes in highly dramatic fashion, both showed they can play Texas hold’em, and so in that battle between luck and skill I was alluding to yesterday, skill did (in a sense) perhaps “win out.”

I’m not alone, I don’t think, in liking both of these guys. Probably somewhat better for poker that the one who seems primed to join the professional circuit -- and not the fellow content to go back into the woods with his chainsaw (as amiable as he is) -- ended up on top.

Am thinking more and more that next year I might just have to angle a way to get back out to Vegas in November to witness this spectacle go down. As I mentioned already, in 2008 I didn’t really have much of a pull to be there once they finally resumed the sucker. But this year I did, and I don’t think it was just because of the prospect of being there to see a Phil Ivey victory.

Yeah, as fun as the online coverage was to follow, I think it would be fun to see the November Nine with my own peepers. And my peeps.

2009 WSOP Main Event Heads Up: Moon v. Cada and/or Luck v. Skill

One more day of play at the Rio, and the 40th World Series of Poker will at long last be completed. (Had to share that cool FlipChip pic from Saturday night there to the left.) What a lo-o-o-o-ong, strange trip it’s been.

Joe Cada and Darvin Moon are scheduled to begin their heads-up battle at 10 p.m. Vegas time, although if things go the way they usually do cards won’t be in the air until some time after that.

For those of us here on the east coast, then, that’s after 1 a.m. Would mean a late, late night, but I’m thinking I’ll probably follow along anyhow. Could be wrong, but I am encouraged to stay up by the belief that the match might well be a short one. Gotta couple of reasons for thinking that.

When play resumes, Cada will have 135,950,000 chips and Moon 58,850,000. (Interestingly, Moon has almost exactly the same stack as he had when the final table began, when his 58,930,000 gave him a huge lead over his eight opponents.) They are in the middle of Level 39, with blinds of 500,000/1,000,000 and 150,000 antes. Not sure exactly, but it looks as though they have about a half-hour or so left at this level, after which the price to play Level 40 will be 600,000/1.2 million blinds and 200,000 antes.

Last year Peter Eastgate and Ivan Demidov came back on Monday night to Level 37 (300,000/600,000/75,000), so they are a little farther along in the schedule this time around. Last year players in the Main Event began with 20,000 chips, as opposed to 30,000 in 2009. There were 6,844 entrants in 2008, meaning the final two players had a little over 137 million between them. A total of 6,494 came out in 2009, and so Cada and Moon have just under 195 million on the table.

Was fussing over this some last year -- this business of calculating the “M” of each player here at the start of heads-up play. Remember, a player’s “M” (from Dan Harrington’s Harrington on Hold’em books) is the total “cost” to play one orbit, i.e., the blinds and antes. So here we’re talking about the small blind + the big blind + two antes. Harrington’s “M” figure doesn’t really have the same significance for heads up as it does in full-ring play, of course, although it does provide a way to talk about relative stack sizes between tourneys.

Last year Eastgate had an “M” of approximately 76 and Demidov about 55 when they began, and those two went for 105 more hands. Over at the WSOPE Main Event in 2008, John Juanda had an “M” of around 63 and Stanislav Alekhin of close to 41 when they began heads up, and those two went on for an epic 242 hands (like seven hours or something). That difference proves that “M” doesn’t necessarily help us predict how long heads up will go, since when the “M” is above a certain point how long they play mostly depends on players’ styles and their approach to the endgame.

For comparison’s sake, when they return tonight Cada will have an “M” of just over 75 and Moon just under 33. So theoretically, these guys could go on for a hundred or even two hundred hands, but I ain’t seeing that happening.

One difference from the 2008 WSOP and WSOPE Main Events is the fact that Cada has a more than two-to-one chip advantage here. That alone decreases the likelihood that we’ll see the sort of patience demonstrated in the other examples, although again -- theoretically -- it doesn’t mean they can’t be patient.

However, here I think it is clear that the amateur Moon is not interested in trying to outplay Cada after the flop very much, and so will be encouraged both by his chip disadvantage and skill disadvantage to start shoving right away. In fact, I’d be very surprised if Moon did not begin moving all in from the very first hands tonight. (That said, we’ve been surprised by Moon before!)

Cada certainly improves his chances if he shows some patience and waits for a decent hand with which to accept that first invitation to an all-in challenge, although if Moon does force the issue this way and try to negate (or at least mute) Cada’s skill advantage, the kid is still going to have to have a hand hold up to win the sucker.

We might well see some post-flop poker tonight, but it appears more likely it’s gonna be flipping coins. Moon’ll have to win that first one in order to have a second go. If he does, then Cada will have to win the next one in order to survive. Both made it this far via a combination of skill and luck, but it sure seems that luck will prevail tonight.

Or not. Which is why I’ll be staying up to see what happens. Will be truckin’ over to PokerNews’ live reporting page as usual, where FerricRamsium and Donnie Peters will chronicle the hands, and Gloria Balding will interview the players.

See you there!

2009 WSOP Main Event: Cada Can Do, But Moon Has Shot

Wild finish this morning at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event, with the Michigan youngster Joe Cada hitting hands at the right time and the Maryland logger Darvin Moon likewise running good and surviving some sketchy plays to make it to heads up.

Looked for a while like Antoine Saout and Eric Buchman -- who finished third and fourth, respectively -- were both poised to be there for the tourney’s conclusion on Monday night. But both suffered some misfortune, thereby paving the way for Cada and Moon.

Much will be made of how Cada, whose whopping stack of almost 136 million means he presently has over two-thirds of the chips, survived not one but two all-in confrontations in which he had the worst pocket pair and flopped a set. The first came in Hand No. 195 versus Jeff Shulman. Cada, the table’s short stack at the time with less than 11 million, open-shoved from the small blind with pocket treys only to get instacalled by Shulman who had pocket jacks in the BB. A trey flopped, and Cada stuck around.

Then, once they were down to three-handed, Cada survived in similar fashion in one of the last hands of the night-slash-morning. After Moon folded his button, Cada opened with a raise to 2.55 million from the SB (blinds 500,000/1,000,000). Saout reraised to 7.3 million, Cada thought for a while then announced he was all in, committing his entire 39 million or so. Saout quickly called, showing pocket queens to Cada’s lowly pair of deuces. But a third deuce flopped, Cada’s hand held up, and a little later he’d finish Saout off when his A-K outraced the Frenchman’s pocket eights.

Sometime earlier in the night Cada had survived yet another all in with pocket fours against Phil Ivey’s A-8. So them baby pairs served the baby-faced Cada quite well.

Meanwhile, the not-so-baby faced Moon made several strange plays during the course of the 276 hands played -- already a new record for the longest WSOP Main Event final table in history. (Photo via Katkin for Pokerati.) The forums have already seized upon some of those early hands, such as the early one in which he stumbled into doubling Saout up while holding A-4, or the bizarre one versus Steven Begleiter when he check-raised the former Bear Stearns exec for almost all his chips, then amazingly folded after Begleiter pushed.

(Incidentally, check out this silly article over on Bloomberg about Begleiter’s sixth-place finish. As Change100 noted on Twitter, the author seems to believe the dollar-value of the chips are equivalent to cash!)

As play wound down, there was an eight-hand sequence in which Moon shoved all in three times (Hands No. 249-256), appearing perhaps to be ready to gamble it up once and for all. He wasn’t called on any of those occasions, however. He’d then sit back and watch as Buchman lost most of his stack to Saout in an A-Q vs. A-K hand. Moon would then double Buchman up once, but knocked him out in the next hand (Hand No. 271). That would be the last big one Moon would play, as Cada and Saout’s two big hands shortly followed, and Moon had survived to play Monday with just under 59 million.

If I’m not mistaken, then, Darvin Moon was the only player at the final table never to have had all of his chips at risk -- i.e., not once did he find himself all in and called by an opponent who had him covered. And, in fact, in that interview from July with The Poker Edge, he noted that he’d never once faced that situation during the eight days of play this summer, either.

So out of 6,494 players who entered this sucker, just one can (still) say he’s never been all in with his tourney life on the line.

Have to doubt Moon will be able to continue that streak, though, once he and Cada begin play on Monday. It is possible he could chip up and take the lead without going all in, but it doesn’t seem like that is going to happen. Cada has the edge in both skill and chips, and Moon seems as though he is ready to make it a gambling game, if he can, in order to increase his chances.

Last year heads up lasted over 100 hands, and there were many complaints that ESPN only ultimately showed two of them. This year, there may be only two hands to show. Or just one!

How ever many it is, I know I’ll be watching.

Wakey Wakey... 2009 WSOP Main Event Final Table Continues

Vera’s mother visited this weekend, and she brought us some snacks and this big ol’ bag of coffee. Good thing, too, ’cos they are still goin’ over at the Rio. Time to drink up.

Spoilers here, y’all. But I imagine anyone landing here should know that.

At the moment, four players remain -- Antoine Saout, Eric Buchman, Darvin Moon, and Joe Cada -- all of whom are just above or below the 50-million chip mark. (Average with four players left is a little under 49 mil.) Has been 16 hours or so since the first hand of the final table was dealt, and with the blinds currently 400,000/800,000 (with a 100,000 ante), it might be a while longer before they get down to the final two.

Some time ago, Ivey got short and in Hand No. 175 pushed his last 6.5 million or so with A-K and was called by Darvin Moon who held A-Q. A queen flopped, no king came for Ivey, and the player with seven WSOP bracelets was out in seventh. A dozen hands later, Steve Begleiter hit the rail in sixth, again victimized by Moon. “Begs” was all in with pocket queens, Moon again had A-Q, and they made it to the river before the ace popped out. Then in Hand No. 236, a short-stacked Jeff Shulman lost a race with pocket sevens against Saout’s A-Q to go out in fifth.

F-Train and FerricRamsium still continue to trade off the reporting of hands over at PokerNews, and they’re killin’ it. As B.J. Nemeth once noted with regard to poker tourney reporting, these guys are writing the “first draft of history,” and they’re doing a helluva a job.

Oh, and Phil Hellmuth is still talking about how great of a player he is over on the Bluff Magazine audio broadcast. Actually I like Hellmuth’s commentary for the most part, and have enjoyed what I’ve heard over there when I’ve been tuning in.

Sounds like what they are experiencing at the Penn & Teller Theater is a lot like what we thought would happen back in July on Day 8 -- when the last 27 players returned to those deep, deep stacks and everyone said it’d be the morning before play was concluded. Chips went a-flyin’, though, and the final nine were determined before 11 p.m.

So these nine returned to even deeper stacks. And day moved into night. And now night into day.

Okay, got a fresh cup here. Let’s all head back over to PokerNews’ live reporting page to see which two from these four make it through to Monday night. And we should remember also to trip over to Dr. Pauly’s live blog of the proceedings, too.

Moon Begs the Question... WTF?

They are on dinner break at the 2009 November Nine. James Akenhead is out in ninth, followed by Kevin Schaffel in eighth. Of the seven who remain, Eric Buchman is on top, Phil Ivey is starting to gather chips, and Jeff Shulman the short stack. An interesting first 112 hands to follow thus far, with a couple of pocket aces-vs.-pocket kings situations and some other drama here and there.

Not much doubt, though, what hand most of the poker world is talking about over dinner. That would be Hand No. 90, designated by our buddy FerricRamsium on the PokerNews live blog as “Begleiter Shoots the Moon.”

With seven players left, the blinds were 200,000/400,000 and antes 50,000. That means there was 950,000 in the middle when then chip leader Darvin Moon (with a little over 61 million when the hand began) opened with a raise to 1.3 million from UTG. Ivey folded, then Steven Begleiter (who had 24.3 million at the start of the hand) reraised to 3.9 million from the hijack seat. It folded back around to Moon who called. Pot a little over 7.5 million at this point.

The flop came . Moon checked quickly, then “Begs” bet 5.35 million. Was listening to the audio play-by-play over at Bluff Magazine at the time. Joe Sebok, David Chicotsky, and (I believe) Mark Kroon were at the microphones, and they started getting excited as it appeared Moon was carving out chips to make a check-raise. That he did, to a whopping 15 million.

Then after a bit of a think Begleiter said he was all in. The pot was now over 44 million, and if my math is correct Moon was only looking at something like 5.4 million to make the call. On the broadcast, Sebok and company began to become increasingly incredulous as Moon somehow did not snap-call. Then, amazingly, it began to look like he was even contemplating folding!

And then he did! Andrew Feldman reported a little later via Twitter that Moon held K-Q offsuit -- not sure where he got that, but apparently Moon was doing a lot of talking afterwards, attempting to explain why he gave up on the hand despite facing something like 8-to-1 pot odds to make the call. When the hand was over, “Begs” had a little over 44 million, Moon had slipped to 42 million, and Eric Buchman had become the new chip leader with 51 million.

The hand most obviously recalls the big one between Dennis Phillips and Ivan Demidov from last year’s final table (Hand No. 18) -- you can read details of that one here. You recall that hand, in which some preflop back-and-forthing between Phillips and Demidov created a bloated pot preflop, then after leading with a smallish flop bet Phillips folded to Demidov’s shove, thereby losing half of his stack.

In that hand, Phillips had gotten himself into a tricky spot from out of position, and so ultimately found it necessary to abandon ship. Additionally, since Demidov had a slight chip lead over Phillips when the hand began, Phillips was in danger of being the first elimination from the final table after beginning the night with the chip lead. So he folded, staying alive in the tourney, and while he’d lose some more chips soon after that he’d rebound well enough to finish third.

Phillips most certainly made mistakes in that one, but even so, there was nothing especially bizarre about the hand. Even if he’d misplayed the hand, it wasn’t that difficult to see how he’d gotten himself into an uncomfortable spot by making what could be called “poker decisions” -- in other words, there was a way to follow his thinking that fit within the normal parameters of how hands tend to be played.

But Moon’s fold tonight. That was... well, like out of this world, man.

As Joe Sebok said on the broadcast, Moon could have a Tarot card and a Snickers wrapper and he should still be calling in that spot.

We’ll see on Tuesday whether or not Moon indeed had K-Q offsuit there, but really, it doesn’t matter. Of course the Maryland logger had so many chips prior to that blunder he still is in great shape with 41 million (second behind Buchman’s 51 million). Will be most intriguing to see what Moon is holding the next time he gets involved in a big hand.

Indeed, my main rooting interest at this juncture is to hope both Moon and Ivey stay alive as long as possible, as the tournament will necessarily remain especially interesting as long as one or both are there. ’Cos really, while Moon and Ivey may have almost nothing in common as players, there is one characteristic both share -- you never know what either might do.

Whatever happens, be assured that FerricRamsium and F-Train will be reporting it over at PokerNews.

2009 WSOP Main Event Final Table: Welcome Back, November Nine

The final table of the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event is set to begin about six hours from now. Have other, life stuff going on, and so I will be coming and going throughout the afternoon and evening (and maybe early morning) as far as following the coverage goes.

I will definitely be checking in on the coverage over on PokerNews, where I expect we’ll be seeing every hand reported in the live blog. I’ll also be tuning in over at Bluff Magazine to their audio play-by-play, which depending on who is doing the commentating can add a lot to one’s enjoyment when following tourneys from afar.

Am not going to try to make any predictions, but did decide to share a few thoughts regarding each of the nine players. (All them pics courtesy the great Flipchip.)

1. Darvin Moon (Seat 1) -- 58,930,000

In interviews Moon insists he’s the worst player of the final nine. He also suggests he’s intending to sit tight rather than be the big stack bully early on, waiting for good cards/spots and not giving courtesy double-ups. Many have expressed doubts about both claims. I’m going to guess that Moon does, for the most part, sit tight early on, though I expect he’ll still open pots from late position and/or when picking up big hands. Sure, he can fold his way to third or fourth, but I don’t really see that happening. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a relatively early confrontation or two versus a short-stacked opponent, whether or not he desires such. How those go will likely dictate how Moon’s endgame goes -- if he were to slip back to the middle of the pack, I wouldn’t be at all surprised for him to turtle up big time.

2. Eric Buchman (Seat 6) -- 34,800,000

A ten-year pro, Buchman really only became a big stack near the very end of the eight days in July. As an experienced tourney player who already had about $1 million in tourney winnings prior to making this deep run, Buchman is a favored pick among many. The fact that he’ll get to act directly after Begleiter on most hands early on is probably a big plus as well. Many expect Begleiter to be a somewhat unpredictable element, given his amateur status and big stack, so Buchman is in good shape to choose when and where he wants to try to outplay the amateur. Of course, the short stacks on his right (Cada and Saout) may force him to abandon some hands, too. Gotta believe he’s in a good spot here and so can’t really disagree with those picking him.

3. Steven Begleiter (Seat 5) -- 29,885,000

The former bank executive is considered by most to be the one player with an above-average stack who is most likely to get himself into trouble in the early going. His amateur status, coupled with the memory of certain hands aired on ESPN in which he appeared more fortunate than skillful, has led most to view Begleiter as a target, especially for the short stacks seeking double-ups in favorable circumstances. That said, I think Begleiter -- who apparently hired Jonathan Little as a coach -- is probably aware of how he is perceived, and may well use his image to an advantage. Can’t really imagine “Begs” making it to heads-up, though stranger things have happened.

4. Jeff Shulman (Seat 9) -- 19,580,000

You’re hearing a lot of references to this being Shulman’s second WSOP Main Event final table, although technically his seventh-place finish at the 2000 WSOP ME landed him just shy of the then six-handed FT. Even so, he and Ivey obviously are the only players among this year’s November Nine who have ever gotten anywhere near capturing the ME event bracelet before. Yesterday I mentioned that interview with Phil Hellmuth on ESPN’s podcast, The Poker Edge (11/5/09). Hellmuth, whom Shulman hired to coach him for this final table, spoke of their extensive study of the other players’ styles and tendencies. With or without any guidance from others, Shulman is a crafty player who is capable of a variety of moves and who gives off little in the way of tells. He’s also smart enough to avoid unnecessary risks, as shown more than once in the ESPN coverage. Don’t know if Shulman can actually win here, but I would be very surprised not to see him part of the final five.

5. Joe Cada (Seat 7) -- 13,215,000

According to the media guide, the 21-year-old from Michigan accumulated some nice online scores prior to making his live tourney debut, earning over half a million clams, buying a house at 19, and (understandably) quitting community college. The hands shown on ESPN involving Cada mostly cast him in a favorable light, and some are quite high on his chances to break Eastgate’s record as youngest-ever ME winner. It will be interesting to see how he appears to view his 13 million-plus chip stack -- technically, he’s below average, and after just a few minutes of play when they move into Level 34, he’ll be sitting there with an “M” of less than 20. Will he feel urgency at that point or will he be sitting back while those with even fewer chips push the action?

6. Kevin Schaffel (Seat 4) -- 12,390,000

Interestingly -- though perhaps not surprisingly -- the three players at the final table whom everyone agrees should be designated “amateurs” are the three oldest players at the table: Moon (46), Begleiter (47), and Schaffel, who at 52 is the November Nine’s elder statesman. Schaffel does appear to have a lot more experience to draw from than the other two amateurs, though, having earned more than half a million in tourney winnings even before this event. He’s also made a couple of impressive runs in the Main Event before, finishing 42nd in 2004 and 324th in 2008. Of the nine, Schaffel was probably the least covered player by ESPN, and I also don’t remember reporting many (if any) hands of his when I was there this summer. So, like many -- perhaps including, most importantly, the other eight players -- I haven’t a lot to go on when assessing his chances.

7. Phil Ivey (Seat 3) -- 9,765,000

As was the case at the end of the summer, all eyes will be on poker’s “Tiger Woods.” Was listening to the Casino City Gang’s podcast from this week -- a new one I’ve started following and regularly enjoy -- and they noted with fascination how according to some sites Ivey had actually become the favorite to win it all thanks to the bets placed thus far. Obviously with Ivey -- as with Saout and Akenhead -- there’s little chance he gets anywhere today without successfully finding an early double-up. Then, who knows. Ivey becomes a true terror if he has the chips to make others abandon their hands, which -- as we saw over and over again this summer -- they will do. I’d love to see Ivey last as long as possible, but have to believe it is going to be a difficult afternoon for him.

8. Antoine Saout (Seat 8) -- 9,500,000

The Frenchman only received a bit more coverage than Schaffel on ESPN. He folded the better hand versus Ivey once. On another occasion he boldly bluffed Begleiter out of a pot with the worse hand and no draw. And he did make the WSOPE final table, too, where he finished seventh. Saout did a lot of folding near the end to survive to November, although I think now it is most likely we’ll see him (like Ivey and Akenhead) trying to make an early move to get back into contention. Remember with these short stacks that the differences in payouts among these bottom spots aren’t terribly huge: e.g., it is just a $40,000 jump from ninth to eighth, and just $104,000 from eighth to seventh. So unlike last year, when getting to eighth meant Kelly Kim won $1.28 million rather than $900K, there won’t be much incentive for the shorties to wait around in the early going.

9. James Akenhead (Seat 2) -- 6,800,000

The British pro is probably the second-most respected player at the table besides Ivey, having a number of significant cashes over the last two years, including that runner-up in a 2008 WSOP $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em event (in which 3,929 entered) and a ninth-place finish at the 2009 WSOPE Main Event. Will be very dangerous should he get that double-up, and could well upset all sorts of imagined scenarios if he manages to accumulate a stack that allows him to play poker.

(EDIT [added 11/9/09]: Incidentally, if you happened to come to this post via that YouTube video with “Hard-Boiled Poker” in the title, I have no idea what the vid is or why it references “Hard-Boiled Poker.” Looks like some sort of content-grabbing thing?)