Thursday, November 05, 2015

Compiling the November Niners’ Hands Shown on ESPN

Okay, folks... this is going to seem a little obsessive. But I took all these notes and ended up deciding not to use them for anything else, and so I’m going to share it all here rather than just keep them to myself.

A couple of days ago I mentioned again how I’d been watching the ESPN coverage of the WSOP Main Event fairly closely this year, pulling out interesting hands for “what-would-you-do?”-type strategy articles over on PokerNews. That meant I watched every hand from all 16 episodes, taking notes as I did.

I had an idea this week that it might be interesting to pull out the hands involving the November Niners -- Joseph McKeehen, Zvi Stern, Neil Blumenfield, Pierre Neuville, Max Steinberg, Tom Cannuli, Josh Beckley, Patrick Chan, and Federico Butteroni -- and find out what perhaps could be gleaned from the hands that were shown. I already had notes from each episode which to work, and so initially thought it might be a reasonable task, but eventually I got kind of bogged down with it all and the idea got aborted.

There were 284 hands (including partial hands) shown in the coverage. Of those about half of them involved November Niners, although about 20 or so of those hands were just them folding preflop. Still that left 121 hands in which we could actually talk about meaningful strategic decisions involving these players. These would be the hands, I’d imagine, that the players themselves focused on if they chose to study the ESPN shows at all when preparing for the final table.

Like I say, I didn’t want to do all of this and just toss it in the circular file, so I’m going to leave it here if only to remind me not to give myself such a ridiculous task again. What follows are short-hand notes of those 121 hands -- my actual notes for each hand are much, much more detailed, but they are also very messy and inconsistent. That’s not to say what appears below isn’t also messy and inconsistent, but at least the entries are short and easy enough to scan.

The numbers represent the episode (1 through 16) and the hand on that episode, so “1.10” means show #1, hand #10. An asterisk before the number means a November Niner was at risk of elimination in the hand. Most of them were shown in that spot at least once (including McKeehen with 46 left), Chan was twice, Butteroni three times, Blumenfield five times, and Beckley six times. In fact the only remaining player not shown all in and at risk at least once is Pierre Neuville.

McKeehen unsurprisingly got the most exposure in these hands among the nine (30 hands total, I believe), while Chan got the least by far (just five hands).

Tomorrow I’ll come back with a short post summarizing some thoughts about what I got from these hands insofar as they suggest anything meaningful about each player. Meanwhile I hope the list is understandable enough, for those who are curious.

1.10 McKeehen -- 535 left, gets Costello to make bad river call (knocks out Costello)

2.11 Butteroni -- 428 left, successfully bluffs Ron Ilani

4.13 Beckley -- ~285 left, successfully bluffs Schwartz

5.13 Steinberg -- 186 left, wins three-way hand with Bonomo (overcalls)
5.16 Steinberg -- 171 left, wins J-J vs. A-Q to knock out Jae Kim
5.19 Blumenfield -- 168 left, wins A-A vs. K-K to knock out Esfandiari

6.1 McKeehen -- 162 left, wins A-K vs. Q-Q to knock out Racener
6.6 McKeehen-Stern -- ~160 left, Stern bluffs river with air vs. McKeehen’s full house
6.8 Butteroni -- 138 left, wins A-A vs. 8-8 to knock out Lily Newhouse

7.3 Neuville -- 109 left, gets shoved on river, calls w/flush, knocks out Divella
7.10 Blumenfield -- ~100 left, wins with A-A w/o showdown vs. De Silva
7.11 Steinberg -- ~100 left, wins w/K-K w/o a showdown (gets value) vs. Bonomo (A-K)
7.15 Blumenfield -- ~100 left, wins multi-way hand calling down with flopped top pair
*7.20 Stern -- ~100 left, luckily survives AI Ac-9c vs. Diveglia’s Qs-Qc (rivers straight)
*7.21 Butteroni -- ~90 left, wins AI with K-K vs. Bonomo’s 10-10

8.1 Neuville -- ~90 left, wins with A-A vs. K-Q, knocks out Barabino
8.3 Blumenfield -- ~85 left, loses with J-J vs. Negreanu’s A-A (perhaps lucky to survive)
8.7 Neuville -- ~85 left, wins w/Q-7 vs. Morgenstern’s J-9 latter double-barrels, folds
8.8 Cannuli -- 83 left, wins with A-A vs. A-10, knocks out Diana Svensk
8.16 Blumenfield -- ~80 left, loses big (73% stack) w/K-K vs. Jarvis’s 6-6 (set)

*9.3 Beckley -- 69 left, gets AI after flopping set (three-way hand), survives
*9.4 Blumenfield -- ~69 left, luckily survives with K-J vs. Hastings’s A-3
9.6 Cannuli -- 63 left, wins A-K vs. KK, knocks out Mackoff
9.7 Steinberg -- ~63 left, 3-way vs. Negreanu/Anand; flops middle pair, c-r, wins
9.10 Beckley -- ~60 left, gets value vs. Jarvis calling down, then rivering flush
9.15 Butteroni-Neuville -- ~60 left, b-v.-b hand, Butteroni turns two pair, gets value
9.16 Cannuli -- ~60 left, wins smallish hand vs. Toole (and Berman who folds flop)
9.18 Beckley -- 58 left, tries to bluff Morfe and Morfe calls him down
*9.19 Blumenfield -- 58 left, AI on turn w/queen-high, luckily draws out vs. Hastings
9.20 Neuville-Butteroni -- ~58 left, 3-way hand, Neuville successfully bluffs pot
9.21 Cannuli-Steinberg -- ~58 left, four-way hand, smallish pot
9.25 Cannuli -- ~57 left, 3-way small hand with Minkin and Negreanu

10.3 Steinberg -- ~55 left, 3-way, Steinberg folds top pair to Schwartz turn bluff
*10.5 Beckley-Chan -- huge 3-way hand in which both Beckley & Chan AI, Chan wins
10.6 Beckley -- 53 left, knocks out Lewis after making tough call on turn
10.7 Cannuli -- ~52 left, 3-bets Schwartz from BB w/Q-7, flops two pair/folds to S flush
10.8 Steinberg -- ~50 left, wins small pot with J-J
10.12 Cannuli -- 49 left, wins one vs. Schwartz after drawing out two pair
10.15 Stern -- ~49 left, raises river w/second pair after Power’s bluff, gets fold
*10.16 Beckley -- ~46 left, 4 limp, Beckley r BB w/A-A, wins vs. Buckenmayer AI w/K-Q

*11.1 McKeehen-Beckley -- 46 left, M luckily wins AI A-Q vs. B’s A-K; rivers straight
11.4 Butteroni -- 44 left, loses hand to Clinger
11.5 Cannuli -- 43 left, raises over Steinberg/Schwartz limp w/Q-J, flops straight
11.8 Steinberg-Cannuli -- 41 left, multi-way pot; Cannuli loses to Negreanu w/trip J
11.9 Butteroni -- ~40 left, raises, then folds 9-9 after Turyansky AI
11.10 Chan-McKeehen -- 39 left, 3-way, M AI Q-Q, Chan f A-Q, Buckenmayer out A-K
11.13 Cannuli-Blumenfield -- 36 left, C raises K-6, Blum calls BB 10-9; Blum wins
11.15 Cannuli -- 35 left, loses small three-way pot
*11.17 Butteroni -- 34 left, luckily doubles with 6-6 vs. Brand’s 10-10 (flops quads)
11.18 Steinberg-Cannuli -- 34 left, S r K-K, C calls 9-9; C folds flop, S KOs Toole
11.20 Blumenfield -- ~34 left, makes ballsy AI bluff w/queen-high on river v. Ahmar
11.21 Stern -- 33 left, folds pocket nines after raise, call, reraise

12.2 Steinberg -- 31 left, opens w/9-9 and ends up getting value vs. Ahmar
12.3 Blumenfield -- 31 left, loses big to DNegs w/A-K vs. DN 6-3 (DN better str8)
12.4 Neuville -- 31 left, raises 5-5 then folds to a three-bet
12.5 Beckley-Neuville -- 31 left, Beckley triple-barrels, gets PN to fold better
12.8 Blumenfield -- 31 left, raises with J-J, AI on six-high flop, wins
12.9 Steinberg-Blumenfield -- 31 left, 3-way, Blum calls raise, wins decent pot (DN)
12.11 Blumenfield-Steinberg -- 31 left, Blum folds 9-9 to AI, Stein calls/loses w/7-7
12.14 Blumenfield -- 30 left, Blum calls BB w/Q-9, lets Schwartz bluff him out
12.15 Stern -- ~30 left, four-bets with 10-10, then folds to a big shove
12.16 Cannuli-Steinberg -- 30 left, C calls r w/J-J, S calls w/K-7, DN rr, both fold
12.17 Butteroni -- 29 left, limps SB with Q-10, flops trip 10s and knocks out Minkin
12.19 McKeehen -- 28 left, wins with A-Q vs. A-10, knocks out Moreno

*13.2 Butteroni -- 27 left, luckily wins with Q-Q vs. A-K, ace on flop, queen on turn
13.5 Butteroni -- 27 left, calls raise w/A-5, bluffs at flop, gives up on river (vs. DN)
13.4 Blumenfield -- 27 left, ends up earning some value vs. a bluffy Morgenstern
13.5 Neuville-Beckley -- 27 left, B flops top pair, but N runner-runner deuces
*13.6 Steinberg -- 27 left, doubles up with A-A vs. Negreanu’s 8-8
13.7 Neuville -- 27 left, calls raise with 5-4 suited, then folds to an all-in
*13.8 Chan-Beckley -- 27 left, Beckley (J-J) doubles through Chan (6-6)
13.12 Cannuli -- 24 left, wins with 10-8 vs. 3-3 to knock out Brand
13.13 Cannuli -- 23 left, DN raises, B folds 6-6, C reraises A-K, DN calls; C wins
13.16 Blumenfield -- 23 left, loses a lot with A-A vs. Hinds who rivers nut flush
13.17 McKeehen -- 23 left, wins big pot with K-K vs. Kearney’s 10-10, takes lead again
*13.18 Beckley -- 22 left, triples up with K-K (Neuville c/f K-Q pre)
13.19 Butteroni-Steinberg -- 22 left, table talk, Stein bluffs Butteroni out on river
*13.20 Blumenfield -- 21 left, AI with K-K and doubles through Hinds’s A-K
*13.21 Blumenfield -- 21 left, very next hand AI w/A-A, doubles through Hinds’s 10-10
13.22 Neuville -- 21 left, knocks out Sequiera in very interesting K-6 vs. Q-Q hand

14.1 Cannuli -- 19 left, battles with DNegs over small pot
14.2 Steinberg -- 19 left, a nothing hand
14.3 Butteroni -- 19 left, has J-J, to river w/Schwartz before S bluffs him out
14.7 McKeehen -- 18 left, battles with DNegs
14.8 Steinberg -- 18 left, wins with A-K vs. A-Q, knocks out Kramer
14.10 McKeehen -- 16 left, has A-A and five-bets DNegs who tank-folds A-K
14.11 McKeehen -- 16 left, calls Guan raise w/6-6, makes set, then quads, value
14.12 Neuville -- 16 left, wins with 8-8 vs. A-K, knocks out Stefanski
*14.13 Neuville-Cannuli -- 15 left, Cannuli (A-K) doubles through Neuville (A-9)

*15.1 Beckley -- 15 left, B calls BB 10-8 flops str8, AI flop/doubles thru Turyansky
15.2 McKeehen-Butteroni -- 15 left, both battle DNegs for pot, McKeehen wins
15.3 Cannuli -- 15 left, wins with A-10 vs. Q-Q, knocks out Kearney
15.4 Butteroni -- 14 left, calls BB w/8-5 suited, c-r flop w/mid-pair, Schwartz folds
15.5 McKeehen -- 14 left, set over set to knock out Schwartz
15.6 McKeehen -- 13 left, K-K gets value vs. DNegs with Q-J and top pair on flop
15.7 Cannuli-Chan -- 13 left, Cannuli 4-bets AI w/Q-Q, Chan folds J-7 after 3-bet
15.8 Cannuli-Stern -- 13 left, C (7-6) beats Stern (A-K); turns trips, Stern kings
15.9 Cannuli-Neuville -- 13 left, C raises with 10-5, bluffs N off hand on turn
15.10 McKeehen -- 13 left, DNegs doubles through with 4-4 vs. M’s A-7
15.11 Steinberg-Stern -- 13 left, Stein wins w/K-J vs. Stern A-Q; Stern b-f river
15.12 McKeehen-Beckley -- small hand
*15.13 Chan-Neuville -- 13 left, Chan survives with A-Q v. N’s J-J (flops flush)
15.14 Stern-Cannuli -- 13 left, Stern r/c 3-bet (A-K) w/Q-8; raise flop w/air, wins
15.16 McKeehen-Butteroni -- 13 left, w/Turyansky... Butteroni wins
15.17 McKeehen -- 13 left, raises with 8-7, then folds to a DNegs AI
15.18 McKeehen-Butteroni -- Butteroni wins with A-A vs. Q-Q, KOs Guan out 13th
15.19 Stern -- 12 left, raises w/10s8s, 4-bets AI, wins vs. Q-Q, McDonald 12th

16.1 McKeehen-Beckley -- 11 left, McK raise 6-6, Beck 3-bets A-J, McKeehen fold
16.2 McKeehen -- 11 left, raises/folds to a DN AI
16.3 Blumenfield-Stern -- 11 left, Stern AI on turn w/air v. Blum flush/doubles
16.4 Beckley-McKeehen-Butteroni -- 11 left, M 3-bets 7-6, Bu folds 8-8; Be folds pair
16.5 McKeehen -- 11 left, loses small one to DNegs
16.6 McKeehen -- 11 left, loses another small one to DNegs
16.7 McKeehen-Beckley -- 11 left, M rivers straight, goes AI, Beckley folds top pair
16.9 McKeehen -- 11 left, KOs DN after raising with J-3, DN just call BB w/A-4
16.10 Steinberg-McKeehen -- 10 left, S raise A-K, M 3-bets w/7-6, S 4-bets, M folds
*16.11 Beckley-McKeehen -- 10 left, B doubles w/A-Q vs. M’s 9-9 (Cannuli folded 9-9)
16.12 McKeehen -- 10 left, Turyansky luckily survives with A-J vs. M’s A-K
16.13 McKeehen-Neuville -- 10 left, Neuville flops set with J-J & wins big one vs. McK
16.14 Blumenfield-Neuville -- 10 left, Neuv wins 9-9 vs. Blum’s 8-8, Blum folds river
16.15 McKeehen -- 10 left, wins with Q-Q vs. A-K, knocks out Turyansky in 10th

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