Almost Live Blog: 2011 WSOP Main Event Final Table (November Nine), Day 1

Today is the day. After 108 days plus an extra hour last night thanks to Daylight Savings Time ending, the nine players still with chips in the 2011 World Series of Poker Main Event -- a.k.a. the “November Nine” -- will finally begin their battle later this afternoon.

Could it be the last November Nine? Who knows? With the advent of “almost live” coverage of the event, one wonders whether the WSOP will bother to continue with its routine of delaying the final table months and months in order to allow televised coverage to catch up with the tournament.

Nor has the whole use-the-extra-time-to-grab-some-sponsorship-dollars thing panned out much at all for players, particularly post-Black Friday. Think about how much of the November Nine talk during the past three years revolved around who PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UltimateBet had patched up. Not anymore.

Today viewers will be able to watch every hand of the 2011 WSOP ME final table on a 15-minute delay with hole cards. (Cards will be shown after hands complete. See the section “Going ‘almost live’” in this post for more details.

The show will be available via a variety of outlets. In the U.S., we’ll be able to watch on ESPN2 starting at 12:30 p.m. Vegas time (3:30 p.m. ET) -- just a little while after the first hand is dealt. The show is scheduled to go straight through to 7:00 p.m., then take a 90-minute break when the remaining players go to dinner, then resume at 8:30 p.m.

Everything will also be streamed online on ESPN3.com here in the U.S. (for those who have access). Outside the U.S., some viewers will be able to watch on some ESPN’s international networks. Non-U.S. folks can also watch online over at the WSOP.com site where they will have full access.

Here is the full schedule for today, per the media guide (all times Pacific):

12:17 p.m. -- Final instructions and “Shuffle up and deal” announcement

12:19 p.m. -- Cards in the air, first hand dealt; resume Level 36 (50k/250k/500k); 34 minutes, 57 seconds left in level

12:53 p.m. -- 10-minute break

1:04 p.m. -- Play resumes with Level 37 (75k/300k/600k)

3:04 p.m. -- 15-minute break

3:20 p.m. -- Play resumes with Level 38 (100k/400k/800k)

5:20 p.m. -- 15-minute break

5:35 p.m. -- Play resumes with Level 39 (100k/500k/1m)

6:45 p.m. -- Dinner break begins in middle of level (hard stop)

8:15 p.m. -- Play resumes, continuing Level 39

9:05 p.m. -- 10-minute break; scheduled color-up 25k chips

9:15 p.m. -- Play resumes with Level 40 (200k/600k/1.2m)

11:15 p.m. -- 15-minute break

11:30 p.m. -- Play resumes with Level 41 (200k/800k/1.6m)

1:30 a.m. -- 15-minute break

1:45 a.m. -- Play resumes with Level 42 (300k/1m/2m)

The plan is to stop tonight when they get down to three players, meaning it is unlikely they’ll get all of the way to those last levels. Indeed, last year the Main Event was all over with by Level 41, and the year before it ended during Level 40. It’s also unlikely they’ll be able to keep everything to the minute as planned, although with ESPN directing things, perhaps they will.

Here are the starting stacks and seating assignments for the final table:

Seat 1: Matt Giannetti (U.S.) -- 24,750,000
Seat 2: Badih “Bob” Bounahra (Belize) -- 19,700,000
Seat 3: Eoghan O'Dea (Ireland) -- 33,925,000
Seat 4: Phil Collins (U.S.) -- 23,875,000
Seat 5: Anton Makiievskyi (Ukraine) -- 13,825,000
Seat 6: Sam Holden (U.K.) -- 12,375,000
Seat 7: Pius Heinz (Germany) -- 16,425,000
Seat 8: Ben Lamb (U.S.) -- 20,875,000
Seat 9: Martin Staszko (Czech Republic) -- 40,175,000

I’ll be watching today, and will come back here from time to time today to add thoughts to this post as the sucker plays out. Call it an “almost live” blog.

Meanwhile, Dr. Pauly handicapped the final table earlier in the week, so if you’re looking for some more poker pregame to peruse, check out his “Betting Guide to the 2011 November Nine.” I also wrote up a final table preview for Betfair poker that includes various info about the final nine.

Also, for a more comprehensive blog on this here Main Event final table, be sure to follow Jesse May’s post over on The Poker Farm where he has already managed to share a few thousand words’ worth of insight several hours before the first hand.

See you back here in a while.

10:30 a.m. (Vegas time)
A little less than two hours away from the first hand. Even though I am on the east coast, I’m gonna use PST for the time stamps.

Here is a photo just snapped and tweeted by my buddy Jonathan Boncek (@boncekImages). Jon-Bon is there at the Penn & Teller Theater today to shoot photos for PokerNews.

Was just listening to Andrew Feldman, Lon McEachern, and Bernard Lee breaking down the final nine on the most recent episode of The Poker Edge, a good way to get reintroduced to the final nine players. Check that Jesse May blog as well as he’s offering thoughts about each of the nine, too.

Also, I mentioned that non-U.S. folks will be able to watch everything on WSOP.com. For viewers looking for information about ESPN’s international networks, those in Latin America can check Espnplay.com, if you are in Australia look at Espn3.com.au, and those in New Zealand can check out Espn3.co.nz. Seems like they’ve got everything pretty well covered so that everyone who wants to will have some way to watch.

11:30 a.m.
Dr. Pauly has made the scene there at the Penn & Teller Theater at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino and has himself a live blog up and running. Check it.

12:15 p.m.
You know the PokerNews guys are going to blog it all today. So, too, will there be frequent posts over at BLUFF and elsewhere. In fact, the WSOP has lifted that rule about posting once per hour that normally applies during the WSOP Main Event, so there should be no lack of info about what is happening at the Rio all over the interwebs today. Looks as though the player introductions are already underway.

I’m wondering whether the combination of being able to bet on the November Nine right there at the Rio -- something new this year -- and this 15-minute delayed broadcast (with hole cards) might potentially combine to create some issues.

You’ve got people there watching the action who have bet their own money on the outcome. Those folks are no doubt going to be wired enough to know pretty much as soon as the rest of the world does what players were holding in recently played hands. (As will the players themselves, too, of course, once they consult with their respective rails, actual and virtual).

I’m not saying anything untoward is necessarily going to happen. I assume any spectators who become inappropriate with their encouragement -- i.e., who start advising players how to play a bit too specifically from their seats there in the Penn & Teller Theater -- will be dealt with as necessary. But it seems more likely that not that we’ll see some incident that throws an integrity-threatening wrinkle into the proceedings.

It’s an entirely unique situation for the WSOP Main Event. As Jesse May has noted already today in his live blog, these guys “are about to become the world’s most expensive guinea pigs.”

12:45 p.m.
Yachting has concluded on ESPN2 and the show is finally underway. Lon McEachern and Antonio Esfandiari quickly introduced the scene and the “unprecedented” plan to provide comprehensive “same day coverage on a 15-minute delay to protect the integrity of the game.” The nine players were then shown all introducing themselves in prepackaged intros.

“This is truly the world’s game... you can get whamboozled anywhere on the globe,” said Norman Chad before rattling off the various places -- from seven different nations -- from which the nine players hail. He then delivered the “shuffle up and deal” and at 12:38 p.m. we’re seeing the first hand being dealt amid a lot of hoots and hollers among the crowd.

On the first hand, Phil Collins limped in from early position and all folded back to Bob Bounahra in the big blind. A jack flopped, and Bounahra check-folded to Collins’ bet. After the hand was over, we saw Collins had and so had hit the flop, and Bounahra had and had not. In fact, “queen-jack suited” was the first holding Esfandiari suggested Collins might have had when he limped.

Time to settle in.

12:55 p.m.
As was the case back in July, not seeing the hole cards during the hand (but only afterwards) makes for a lot more interesting analysis. All of the action is very clear thus far and the graphics work well. Cannot really hear any table talk, but it doesn’t appear there has been much, anyway. Would be nice to see stack sizes during hands (as they’ve begun doing over on the Epic Poker League broadcasts), but all in all everything is very clear and easy to follow.

I also like how the actual time of play -- always exactly 15 minutes behind thus far -- is shown up in the right-hand corner. I can tell already I’m probably going to be focusing more on the ESPN2 show than the updates on PokerNews or Twitter.

Play pretty tight during the first orbit. After nearly four months of waiting, it is no surprise to see no one in any special hurry here at the start.

1:15 p.m.
They have made it to the first break on the broadcast. We just saw Hand #11 in which O’Dea took a few chips off of Heinz. The board ran out and afterwards we saw that O’Dea had flopped a monster with . Heinz had but K-Q -- he check-called the flop bet, both checked the turn, then Heinz folded to O’Dea’s river bet.

Martin Staszko still leads with about 40 million, but O’Dea is edging closer, up to 38.7 million. Meanwhile, Heinz has slipped to ninth just behind Holden with right at 12 million.

1:35 p.m.
They have begun Level 37 (75k/300k/600k). On Hand #14, you could clearly see Pius Heinz’s right hand shaking as he put out the stack of lavender chips on the river with the board showing -- a bet of 2.3 million into the 6.825 million pot. His lone opponent, O’Dea, thought for a while, looking over a couple of times, before folding.

The hands? Heinz had two red aces, and O’Dea 9-9. (Heinz had actually checked the turn there with the overpair and nut flush draw and O’Dea checked behind.) That one pulls Heinz up out of the cellar and to about 16 million.

2:05 p.m.
Phil Hellmuth has joined McEachern and Esfandiari in the booth. His first comment is to say he’d predicted play would be tight early on, and that has certainly been the case.

Hellmuth is suggesting that the 15-minute delay is actually keeping players in line even more, avoiding too many “creative” plays (e.g., a loose three-bet with a mediocre hand) since such plays will become known by their opponents in such short order. Esfandiari agrees, and it does seem like a reasonable point to help explain the relatively tight play thus far.

Other factors are keeping ’em tight, too, of course. Indeed, as they are pointing out, all nine have essentially established tight images for themselves during the first hour-and-a-half.

They are starting now to show chip counts during hands. Occasionally they’ll stream across the top of the screen in a way that resembles what the positions of cars during a NASCAR race. (In fact, they are also streaming NFL scores at the bottom of the screen and other sports news, including what is happening at today’s race, thereby furthering the impression of that similarity.) During hands they’ll sometimes show how much players have behind, such as in this one (Hand #22) between Bounahra and Staszko.

2:15 p.m.
Within moments of Hellmuth making that observation about the tight play, both Makiievskyi and Holden shoved their short stacks, getting no callers. Then both Heinz and Lamb three-bet opponents off of hands preflop with holdings that were weaker than those they were up against.

2:55 p.m.
Vanessa Rousso has replaced Hellmuth in the booth.

After checking Twitter and PokerNews during the commercial, I was curious to see what Heinz and O’Dea held during the huge Hand #39 that ended without a a showdown. Heinz opened, Lamb called, O’Dea four-bet from the small blind, and Heinz called, forcing a fold from Lamb. Pot 10.775 million.

The flop came . O’Dea leads with a bet of 4.6 million, and Rousso is saying O’Dea’s body language suggests he’s strong. After some thought, Heinz calls, making the pot almost 20 million.

The turn brings the -- a third club. The commentators all think we’re looking at two big pocket pairs. O’Dea again leads, this time for 8.2 million. The hoody-wearing Heinz riffles chips for several minutes. The longer Heinz tanks, the more the commentators are convinced that O’Dea is feeling comfortable and Heinz much less so.

At the four-minute mark, Heinz makes what Rousso calls the “muck face” -- i.e., he looks like he’s going to fold. Then, boom... he’s all in! For 16 million. O’Dea folds immediately! The hands...

Heinz:
O’Dea:

Wow. Heinz up to 44 million-plus, edging close to the leader Staszko. O’Dea way down to 11 million-ish; only Holden has less. What a hand.

3:10 p.m.
Heinz -- considered by many the most aggressive player of the final nine -- has climbed from seventh to the chip lead after just 45 hands. He is closing in on 50 million.

3:30 p.m.
They have reached the end of the level and the next 15-minute break. After exactly 50 hands, all nine players still alive. Here are the counts heading into Level 38 (100k/400k/800k):

Pius Heinz -- 49,950,000
Martin Staszko -- 43,525,000
Matt Giannetti -- 26,525,000
Ben Lamb -- 21,675,000
Phil Collins -- 15,775,000
Badih "Bob" Bounahra -- 14,025,000
Eoghan O'Dea -- 13,025,000
Sam Holden -- 11,225,000
Anton Makiievskyi -- 10,200,000

3:45 p.m.
Sam Holden is out in ninth, KO'd in the first hand back from the break. He three-bet shoved with and Lamb quickly called with . The first four community cards were clubs, and that was that.

“I think I’m happy with how I played for the most part,” said the curly-headed Holden to Kara Scott afterwards. “I had a really good time.... Things didn’t quite work out for me at the final table, but I’m very pleased with the experience.”

Chips for “Benba” (as you can hear his fans calling). He’s up over 34 million now, good for third.

4:05 p.m.
Relatively big hand just now between Matt Giannetti and Bob Bounahra. Bounahra opened from UTG and it folded around to Giannetti who after a long pause called from the big blind. Both checked the jack-high flop, then Giannetti led both the turn and river, with the cigar-chomping man from Belize calling him on both streets.

By the end the board read 3-J-6-5-5 (no flush possible), and while Bounahra thought about whether to call the river Esfandiari put him on a middle pair. “If he can beat a jack, I'm quitting poker,” Esfandiari added.

After another minute the Magician then surmised that Bounahra probably wanted to make a hero call -- and he was right. Bounahra did call, and had to muck his pocket tens after seeing Giannetti's J-8.

That one dropped Bounahra to the bottom, eighth of eight with a little over 8.5 million. Meanwhile, Giannetti climbed a touch over Lamb and back into third with about 35.5 million.

4:20 p.m.
Down to seven now. Makiievskyi open-shoved his short stack of 10.5 million with K-Q and leader Heinz quickly called from the big blind with pocket nines. The flop was good for the Ukrainian, coming , but the turn cruelly brought the .

Makiievskyi looked upwards in disbelief, then could only smile as a red seven on the river sent him out in eighth.

In his exit interview with Scott he was obviously disappointed, but in reasonably good spirits. She asked him about the crowd and whether it affected him, and he said it didn’t really although the noise during hands wasn’t necessarily ideal.

Heinz is up over 61 million now. Shortly after that one they showed that lucky hand from Day 8 in which Heinz sucked out with K-J against John Hewitt’s A-K with 11 players left.

4:45 p.m.
Hellmuth is back in the booth and making more observations about how the 15-minute delay is affecting the play. For example, that hand in which O’Dea tried to push Heinz off the queens (see 2:55 p.m.) came about 30 minutes after one in which Heinz had three-bet preflop with a so-so hand and gotten a fold. Hellmuth's point is that O’Dea knew about the earlier hand when he got aggressive against Heinz in the later one. It's possible, I suppose, although the way that one played out I can't really buy O'Dea making his move strictly based on that one sorta-bluffy preflop three-bet from before.

Meanwhile, Belize Bob has been eliminated in seventh. Down to less than 4.5 million (less than six big blinds), he reraise-pushed with A-5 and was called by Staszko who held A-9. The board blanked, and Bounahra is out.

In his exit interview, Scott asked him about the hand with Giannetti (see 4:05 p.m.), and Bounahra said he “put him on an ace-king or ace-queen or an underpair” and not jack-eight. You get the feeling he isn't too disappointed with seventh, though. “I came here to have fun, and I will have fun tonight, no matter what” he said with a wide grin.

Six left. Half are American.

Pius Heinz -- 52,500,000
Matt Giannetti -- 49,075,000
Martin Staszko -- 45,750,000
Ben Lamb -- 31,600,000
Phil Collins -- 15,375,000
Eoghan O'Dea -- 11,625,000

5:00 p.m.
Kind of an epic suckout just now as Phil Collins survived with against Lamb's . (See details here.) He and Lamb essentially switch stacks there, with Collins up close to 30 million and Lamb back down to about half that.

“Sorry bud,” said a very reserved and cool Collins to Lamb afterwards. Lamb was also pretty stoic-looking following the hand. You can tell he was disappointed not to win the hand and knock out a tough opponent, but only barely. Both these guys -- really all of the November Niners -- have been nothing but professional from the get-go.

You could also make out Collins saying one other thing after the hand -- “First time all in.” He’s referring to the entire Main Event (no shinola).

5:50 p.m.
The last hand of Level 38 saw a preflop all-in confrontation between the two short stacks, Ben Lamb and Eoghan O’Dea.

O’Dea opened with a raise, Lamb shoved, and O’Dea thought for almost three full minutes before making the call. Lamb had and was the one at risk versus O’Dea who held .

Decent flop for Lamb, the board bringing him a flush draw and in fact making him a slight favorite with two cards to come. The turn was a black four, but the hit on the river to save Lamb. He bumps back up over 29 million while O’Dea goes to the break with less than 3 million.

The Irishman will have less than 3 big blinds when Level 39 begins. They’ll be playing about half of this next two-hour level, then the remaining players will go on a 90-minute dinner break.

Pius Heinz -- 65,200,000
Matt Giannetti -- 51,675,000
Martin Staszko -- 38,250,000
Ben Lamb -- 29,450,000
Phil Collins -- 18,750,000
Eoghan O'Dea -- 2,600,000

6:15 p.m.
During the break, ESPN2 showed a quick report that largely focused on Black Friday and its various effects while also mentioning a few other “year in review”-type stories.

Also during the break, Oskar Garcia tweeted this picture of the 500,000 chip, which is being put into play here in Level 39. Meanwhile, my buddy Eric Ramsey -- there at the Rio reporting for PokerNews -- also sent a tweet in which he posed a question: “Dinner break coming in 50 minutes. Anyone care to set odds on us being three-handed before then?”

After two hands of Level 39, Eric’s question appeared especially prescient. That’s because players busted on each of those two hands -- Nos. 99 and 100 of the final table.

First O’Dea was dispatched by Staszko when his Q-6 couldn’t catch up to the Czech player's pocket eights. Then Collins was knocked out by Heinz when his couldn’t outdraw the German’s pocket nines.

Boom, boom. Four remain. Might not even get to that dinner break.

7:00 p.m.
Well, they did make it to dinner, meaning a later night for us here on the east coast. During the 20 hands played since Collins was eliminated, Lamb became especially active, winning nearly half the hands.

In one of the last just before the break, Staszko limped in from UTG/the cutoff and it folded around to Lamb in the BB who checked. The flop came 8-8-K rainbow and Lamb checked. Staszko quickly bet 1.2 million (just under half the pot), and with some deliberation Lamb check-raised to 2.6 million. Staszko collected chips, then made it 5.2 million to go, something Esfandiari said looked very suspicious. Lamb unhesitatingly made it 8 million, and the Czech folded instantly.

The cards? Staszko , and Lamb !

Here are the stacks going to break:

Pius Heinz -- 85,500,000
Matt Giannetti -- 50,325,000
Ben Lamb -- 46,300,000
Martin Staszko -- 23,900,000

Back on the other side.

8:40 p.m.
The remaning four players are back in action and coverage has resumed on ESPN2.

David Tuchman has stepped into the booth now, joining Hellmuth and Esfandiari. Tuchman is saying it is Level 40, but they’ve actually still nearly another hour of Level 39 to go.

Each of the four players won a hand apiece during the first orbit, none of which saw a flop. Staszko is now down under 22 million (i.e., under 22 BBs).

9:15 p.m.
All four of these players are clearly tough -- adjusting constantly, using aggression when appropriate, picking spots well. In other words, I think it is safe to say that whoever wins, there will be marginally less talk of the winner having luckboxed his way to the bracelet than tends to have come up during the post-"boom" era. Unless Benba wins, I guess, although amid all of his run-good the 2011 WSOP Player of the Year has certainly proven himself among the most skillful.

Kind of an interesting hand just now between Heinz and Lamb. Heinz completed from the SB, Lamb made it 2.7 million from the BB, and Heinz called. Heinz then led for 3.1 million following a flop, and Lamb called. Heinz bet again after the fell -- 6.3 million this time -- and Lamb let it go without much hesitation.

Heinz had and Lamb .

Shortly after that (Hand #146), Heinz four-bet Lamb before the flop (to 14 million), forcing a fold. In that one, Heinz had Q-8-off (better than Lamb’s 10-5-off).

9:35 p.m.
Big double-up for Staszko, all in for 21.52 million with A-8 versus the 6-6 of leader Heinz.

As Heinz thought about the call, Esfandiari and Hellmuth agreed Heinz would be calling with a hand like pocket sevens or A-10 or A-9.

Two eights flopped, and the Czech's hand held. He's up over 44 million, while Heinz still leads with just under 75 million. Giannetti remains in second with about 56 million -- he's been second or third pretty much all day -- and Lamb is now the short stack with a little under 30 million.


9:50 p.m.
Okay, now they are starting Level 40 (200k/800k/1.6m).

Pius Heinz -- 73,800,000
Matt Giannetti -- 56,000,000
Martin Staszko -- 44,500,000
Ben Lamb -- 31,600,000

10:05 p.m.
Sounds like they are indeed frequently telling the crowd to keep quiet during hands. Was wondering way back this morning whether or not that would be the case, particularly considering many of those in attendance not only are following coverage online, too, but have bet on the outcome. (EDIT [added 11/8/11]: Vin Narayanan of Casino City Times kept a live blog on Sunday as well, and he comments frequently on the rowdy crowd and the efforts to shush them. See his 11/7 article, “Shhh. We’re trying to play a poker tournament.”)

In hand #158, Heinz and Giannetti built a pot of exactly 30 million by the turn, then checked both of the last two streets. Final board K-K-7-Q-9. Heinz showed Q-8 suited -- a lot of chips for him to get in before pairing up on the turn. Giannetti mucked his hand, which we got to see -- 8-8.

10:25 p.m.
Esfandiari has taken off, with Norman Chad joining Tuchman and Hellmuth. Meanwhile, Staszko has now moved into second place after winning a huge one versus Heinz.

Staszko opened from the button for 2.5 million and Heinz called from the BB. The flop came , and Heinz check-called Staszko's 2.5 million c-bet. He'd check-call a bigger bet -- 7.5 million -- after the turn.

The river was the and Heinz checked once more. This time Staszko bet 13.75 million, pushing the total pot up over 40 million. Heinz tanked for about four minutes, during which time Hellmuth put him on A-9 or A-8.

“All Heinz is thinking is ‘Does Staszko have it or not?’ and ‘Can I make this thin call on the river or not?’”

Finally Heinz decided he could not make the call and let his hand go. We see he had . Third pair, ultimately. But Staszko hadn't gotten there until the river, which as it turned out gave him the nuts -- he had .

Heinz slipped to about 79 million on that one, while Staszko moved up over 58 million. Giannetti remained just under 40 million, and Lamb a bit below 30 million.

11:05 p.m.
It’s fashionable to joke about Ben Lamb running good, being a luckbox, having a horseshoe up his ass, what have you. He certainly has experienced some good fortune today, including an opportune river card to avoid being eliminated in sixth (see 5:50 p.m.). And in the past as well. But he’s also pretty obviously a helluva player.

That said, the night has ended with Lamb scoring a couple of hands off of Matt Giannetti in which skill didn’t matter all that much.

In the first, Lamb four-bet shoved for 26.8 million with and was insta-called by Giannetti who held -- the hand that he’d doubled up with twice at that ten-handed final table back in July. But here two hearts flopped, a third came on the turn, and the river was no matter. Lamb was up over 55 million, and Giannetti was in the danger zone.

Giannetti would double through Staszko on the next hand. Then Lamb called off more than 10 million chips’ worth in a hand versus Heinz before folding the river, enabling the German to move up over 100 million.

Then, in Hand #178 of the final table, there arose another preflop all-in confrontation between Giannetti and Lamb. The former was risking his last 12 million with . But there was Lamb, running good, and tabling .

The flop brought not one but both of the other kings, and that was that.

Here’s how the payouts went today:

4th -- Matt Giannetti ($3,012,700)
5th -- Phil Collins ($2,269,599)
6th -- Eoghan O’Dea ($1,720,831)
7th -- Badih “Bob” Bounahra ($1,314,097)
8th -- Anton Makiievskyi ($1,010,015)
9th -- Sam Holden ($782,115)

And here are the counts of the remaining three:

Pius Heinz -- 107,800,000
Ben Lamb -- 55,400,000
Martin Staszko -- 42,700,000

It’s late, so I’m going to wrap it up here quickly and save further musing for tomorrow. In the end we saw more than nine hours’ worth of “almost live” poker on ESPN2 today, and the show was terrific from beginning to end.

And the sequel comes Tuesday.

Post No. 1,500: When Will It End? Or, the Story of ElkY’s Uncle

Post No. 1,500 today. Bertrand “ElkY” Grospellier’s favorite Twitter hashtag “#whenwillitend” comes to mind.

The 2011 World Series of Poker Main Event final table cranks up just a little over 24 hours from now. I may have to come back here tomorrow and post a bit while watching it all “almost live” on ESPN2. Then again, I can see being too distracted to do so. Besides, after this many posts I should probably think about taking a day off.

Meanwhile, I thought I’d use this milestone post to point back to what I wrote here on Hard-Boiled Poker while helping cover the Main Event for PokerNews back in July. Here are those posts:

Day 1a: Mirror, Mirror on the Wall
The Main Event begins, and a player dressed as Snow White plays, as does the Poker Grump (not a dwarf).

Day 1b: KK vs. AA
Having a day off, I play a “deepstack” event at the Rio and run kings into aces relatively early, thereby allowing me to get away from poker for much of the day and evening.

Day 1c: The Utility Player
Back to work at the Main Event, I spend Day 1c running around to various sections of the Amazon, filling in wherever needed.

Day 1d: The Lottery
Reporting from the super busy Day 1d of the Main Event, my favorite story involves a player who won his seat via the North Carolina lottery, and played like it.

Day 2a: 6,865 & Other Numbers
Crunching a few of the numbers regarding Main Event entrants, the total way over most folks’ expectations.

Day 2b: A Glimpse
I’m back at the Main Event, helping cover Day 2b, and am moved to remark on how fast it is all going, and how hard -- or impossible -- it is to keep up with it all.

Off-day: Unwind
The WSOP takes a day off, I play in the media tournament, then join up with others to play some pub trivia.

Day 3: Places, Everyone!
Day 3 of the Main Event, and the ESPN cameras are all around us, shooting everything. Starting to feel a bit like we are all -- staff, media, players -- actors on a set, with the directors guiding our every move.

Day 4: A Short-Stacked Story
We’re already up to Day 4 of the Main Event and the money bubble bursts. Moments before, I find myself becoming most interested in the shortest stack in the room, wondering whether he’s gonna make it or not.

Day 5: Thinking Poker
Moving on to Day 5, highlighted by dinner with Andrew “Foucault” Brokos and Nate Meyvis, both of whom would crack the top 100 of the ME.

Day 6: Access
By the time we reach Day 6, the number of people covering the Main Event well exceeds the number playing it, and space becomes limited.

Day 7: In the Thick of It
Getting down to just three tables on Day 7 of the Main Event, and my friggin’ laptop won’t seem to fire up.

Day 8: Smile
The November Nine is set. And they are all smiles. And so is everyone else, it seems.

Speaking of Grospellier, there was one story from the WSOP Main Event I don’t believe I shared here during the summer.

It was near the end of the Main Event, somewhere around Day 6 or so, I believe. Most of the tables had been moved out, and the WSOP staff had reoriented the ropes to surround the remaining three or four outer tables there in the center of the Amazon room. I was stationed some distance away, but would frequently come over and duck inside the ropes to check on the action.

Sometimes, though, when I walked over I’d remain outside the ropes if we had plenty of reporters already by the tables. There were a number of spectators gathered about the outer tables -- not a huge number, but enough to make the scene a touch more festive. Most of those watching had wandered over from elsewhere in the Rio, many having carried various adult beverages with them from wherever they had come.

I had just walked over and was standing by the ropes when a dude with a beer in hand looked up at me and with a laugh asked me the following, wholly unexpected question:

“Are you ElkY’s uncle?”

I am not making this up. Otis (whom I mentioned yesterday) was nearby, and can confirm the story as true. The question inspired laughter from both the asker and his buddy, and an uncertain “Um... no?” from your humble scribbler.

Soon the inquisitive reveler wandered off and out of our lives, thus sparing me from having to make additional denials that I was related to the PokerStars pro. Who, by the way, wasn’t anywhere in sight at the time of this here applesauce, having busted on Day 1d. (That photo from the PokerStars blog, taken about 10 days prior to this little story takes place, shows Grospellier exiting the 2011 WSOP ME.)

Not that being ElkY’s uncle would be a bad thing. I’m sure he’s a great nephew to have, probably full of interesting stories at Christmas. And the gifts he gives are probably so seeek!

Do I look like Grospellier? Nah. Not that uncles necessarily resemble their nephews. I am an uncle, and I suppose look like I could be one to people who don’t know me. But all in all, just an absurd anecdote....

Did get me a cool nickname, tho’.

Thanks as always to everyone for reading all of my stories, including the absurd ones.

A Glance Back While Driving Ahead

Been spending today thinking some about the near future -- specifically that November Nine which finally kicks off on Sunday afternoon -- as well as the recent past.

By the recent past I’m referring to the last four years or so, the period comprising my having surprisingly transitioned into this life of poker writing and tourney reporting. I guess there are a few reasons why my anticipation of watching the WSOP Main Event finale this weekend is being mixed a bit with the retrospective stuff.

The event itself is bringing on some of the looking back. Seems like I was just there, helping PokerNews report on the eighth and final day of action at the ME back in July. I won’t be there for this weekend’s restart, but will certainly be following the reporting coming from my several buds who will be.

Speaking of buds, posts by a couple of them have also got me thinking back even further than the last few months.

My friend Change100 yesterday penned a piece called “The Last November Nine?” in which she shared her thoughts about the possibility that this ME final-table-delay experiment may well have “run its course.” (Talked about that a little at the start of yesterday’s post.)

The possibility that the November Nine might be on the way out was the occasion for Change’s post, but along the way she shares a lot of insight both about the way this whole “poker media” thing has evolved and about where it might be headed. She also connects the current, wildly uncertain state of online poker in the U.S. to larger cultural contexts in ways that are worth considering.

One observation in particular that stands out for me from Change’s post is her point about how televised poker’s greatest “hook” has always been the viewer getting to enjoy the idea -- even if it were largely fantastic -- that he or she could be among those playing for the bracelets or bundles of cash one day. That connection between viewers and participants is incredibly meaningful, I think, even if it is mostly imaginary. And without online poker or even a faint hope of winning our way into the events being shown on our teevee screens, it’s hard for many to care much about watching them.

I’m not going to rehearse all of Change’s other points here about where poker has come from, where it might be going, and the ever-evolving status of those who write about poker within the overall scheme of things. Go read for yourself.

Meanwhile, another friend, Brad “Otis” Willis, has today posted a brief history of the PokerStars blog that similarly reflects on the whole idea of “poker media” as a relatively recent phenomenon. His post is titled “PokerStars 10th Anniversary: How the PokerStars Blog Got Its Start.”

Brad had told me before how the PS blog first came about in 2005 and how things grew from there, but his write-up adds further depth and color to the story that makes it especially fun to relive. It also illustrates -- like Change’s post -- the inherent value of thoughtful, reflective prose, something both Brad and Change have brought to poker writing in ways that have influenced others of us who’ve tried our hands at such.

Anyhow, check it out. It really is a cool story, bro’.

Oh, crap. Am noticing the next post is No. 1,500 for me here. Will be another temptation to wax nostalgic, although I think I’m sufficiently distracted what’s coming up to get too carried away with too much more looking back just now.

Talkin’ 2011 WSOP Main Event Final Table on ESPN

Yesterday afternoon I participated along with about a dozen other poker media in a conference call conducted by ESPN concerning this weekend’s resuming of the 2011 World Series of Poker Main Event final table. On the call were Doug White, Senior Director of Programming and Acquisitions for ESPN, Dan Gati of Poker PROductions (who took over the WSOP coverage for ESPN this year), and co-hosts Lon McEachern and Norman Chad.

As you’ve no doubt heard by now, we’ll be getting “almost live” coverage of every hand from this year’s ME FT on our teevees (on ESPN2) as well as streaming online. I’ll admit I’m much more intrigued about this year’s November Nine than I would’ve been otherwise thanks to ESPN’s change in plans to offer more comprehensive coverage.

Here’s an overview of most of the topics covered in the call.

The last November Nine?

Of course, with this move toward “almost live” coverage, the whole idea behind the November Nine -- i.e., to delay the final table four months in order to show the prepackaged, edited shows and build some audience interest before it plays out -- has been thrown into question.

On Tuesday there appeared an article over on PokerListings in which WSOP Communications Director Seth Palansky was quoted saying that the move toward “almost live” coverage was making it less needful to continue with the final table delay.

“If you’re doing something live do you really need to delay it four months and try to build this anticipation to get people to watch?” was the question posed by Palansky, who added that the November Nine idea -- first instituted in 2008 -- “doesn’t quite work” anymore. Thus Palansky says the WSOP is “going to have to revisit the concept after this November.”

We’d all seen that piece, so when Kevin Mathers kicked off the conference call with a question about it, we were all interested to hear what the response would be. Unfortunately -- unlike past years -- there were no WSOP representatives on the call this time, and so none of the ESPN guys could really address the question other than to say they hadn’t heard anything as yet from the WSOP about any changes in the works.

Later Matt Showell of PokerListings asked again if the format made sense anymore with the (almost) live shows, and Doug White said he thought it still did. He referred to the “the pomp and circumstance that you get around the final table in November,” and the “electricity and the excitement” there in the Penn & Teller Theater, noting how he didn’t “think you'd get that same kind of feel if you held the final table in July with the rest of the event.”

Going “almost live”

Kevin followed up with a question about the 15-minute delay and whether having such a short amount of time between the hands’ completion and the world learning what players held might pose any problems.

“Not concerned about the 15-minute delay,” chimed in Gati, who said he believed shortening the delay “makes it that much more exciting while not really impacting anything that’s going on at the table.”

When I had my chance to ask questions, I got Gati to say a little more about what exactly we’ll be seeing come Sunday. He explained that like this summer they will only be showing hole cards after a hand is over (unlike, say, what we saw on that WPT live stream this week when we saw the hole cards from the start of the hand). However, unlike in July they will additionally be showing hole cards in hands that don’t go to a flop, too, essentially focusing on players who are involved in the preflop action.

Gati gave a few examples to clarify. Say it folds around to the small blind who raises and the big blind folds -- we’ll see both of the blinds’ hands afterwards. Same goes for a mid-position open that doesn’t get called -- we’ll see the raiser’s hand as well as the big blind’s hand (the last player to act).

Later Mark Mayer of Gaming Today asked about the difference between showing hands preflop and waiting to show hole cards after the conclusion of hands. Doug White noted how doing the former requires sequestering players, which would negatively affect the atmosphere by taking the crowd out of the equation. (Of course, as we saw with the WPT coverage this week, they were able to show hole cards preflop on a 30-minute delay while still having a crowd in attendance.)

What to expect Sunday and Tuesday

Several asked about the logistics of the Sunday and Tuesday shows. It sounds like on Sunday we’ll mostly have McEachern and Antonio Esfandiari in the booth with Chad coming and going. Then on Tuesday -- when the final three players return to play it out -- they’ll have all of them in place as a three-man commentating team.

Why play down to three instead of two (as in past years)? So asked Howard Stutz of the Las Vegas Review Journal. Doug White referred to the “excitement factor,” but it sounds like the change was made mostly to ensure they’d be able to show more than just a short heads-up match on Tuesday.

Kara Scott will be there to interview players when they bust as well as others in attendance. There will probably be a number of guests in the booth (especially on Sunday, I imagine). And they may at times show hands from earlier in the 2011 WSOP ME and abridged versions of player profiles, although Dan Gati said they will “focus really on the competition.”

As far as what to expect from the players go, the general sentiment was that all nine have a reasonable shot at winning the sucker. As Lon McEachern said in response to my invitation to handicap the final table, “anyone is dangerous.”

What to expect in the future

Jesse May (The Poker Farm) asked about whether any of the players have voiced concerns about the quick turnaround and showing of hole cards.

McEachern noted he’d heard an interview with Matt Giannetti in which he had said “as long as it's a level playing field, it is what it is.” It sounds like the players are mostly accepting the fact that this extra info -- including what they will no doubt gather from friends during breaks about opponents’ hands -- is now part of the game.

May then asked a logical follow-up: Why not just remove the delay altogether and show the players the cards right after each hand, too? Doug White said that was certainly a genuine goal for ESPN. “We would love to get to that point,” said White, “to be able to show this ‘live-live’ to the fans.”

As May has written about before, he believes this is a direction we are headed with poker on television, a move toward a “perfect information” game that becomes a true “spectator sport” (see here for more).

Rating the ratings

Pokerati Dan asked Doug White about the ratings for the shows leading up to the final table. Without going into specifics White admitted they “haven't been as strong as they were last year," adding that “there could be several reasons” for the drop that they were “looking into.” (I wrote a bit “On the WSOP Ratings” last week.)

White is “optimistic and bullish” about the final table, though, for which they are expecting a “good final rating.”

Dan then asked Dan Gati of Poker PROductions to address the drop in ratings, though couched his question in a judgment that “with all due respect... the non-live shows leading up to this November Nine have kind of sucked this year, in my humble opinion.” In other words, the question wasn’t really about the ratings, but rather to explain why the shows weren’t as good -- was it because this was a “first go” for Poker PROductions, or perhaps was poker TV “evolving” and “needing to be reassessed” in order to satisfy viewers’ expectations?

With a chuckle Gati noted he couldn’t accept Dan’s premise -- and so couldn’t really answer his question (i.e., why the shows “sucked”) -- but did nonetheless address the challenge of satisfying various types of viewers, e.g., both casual and “hardcore” poker fans. He also noted how some who watched the live shows in July found their enjoyment of the prepackaged shows lessened somewhat since they’d seen hands previously.

Doug White jumped in as well to compliment Poker PROductions and to say how they’d addressed various viewer concerns this year, including showing more hands as well as the whole move toward the “almost live” coverage.

International feel

The fact that among these nine players no less than seven nations are being represented was brought up more than once Wednesday afternoon. That’s a record for a WSOP ME final table, and Dan Gati suggested it will probably translate into some “rowdy crowds” from all the different countries there at the Penn & Teller Theater.

McEachern and Chad noted how the final table’s “international flavor” (as one questioner put it) indicates how the game has progressed over recent years.

“We’ve got poker’s United Nations happening this coming week,” said McEachern.

“It's where's poker's going,” added Chad, conceding that it was certainly a good thing unless you were an American who didn’t like seeing the U.S. “export” its favorite card game. “If we did this with the space program I don't think we would have been the first on the moon,” he cracked, though added that it was “great to see” so many countries represented among the final nine.

Relatedly, ESPN will be airing the coverage on several of its international networks, apparently, so those folks can watch, too. Also, those outside of the U.S. will be able to watch the coverage streaming on WSOP.com as well, which is great news for them. Unfortunately here in the U.S. the only way we can see the coverage online will be via ESPN3, which a lot of us (myself included) cannot access. Thankfully I do receive ESPN2 and so will be watching there.

Other items

There were a few other items discussed during the call.

When asked what moments stood out for them at this summer’s ME, McEachern cited that wild A-6-versus-A-A hand between Max Heinzelmann and Shaun Deeb from Day 3. (Read about that one here.) Meanwhile Chad, a big fan of the “everyman,” liked the hand from Day 6 in which Bob Bounahra survived with 8-7 suited versus pocket kings. Bounahra “embodies what we love about the Main Event,” said Chad, who believes having “a guy like him at the final table it just adds so much life and color to it.”

A question came up near the end asking how close we were to seeing a woman make an ME final table, and the response focused on the continued low percentage of women who enter, holding steady at around 3.5%. McEachern noted Linda Johnson’s recent induction into the Poker Hall of Fame and how that might inspire more women to play.

James Guill (of Poker Junkie) then asked if there would be any coverage of Tuesday’s PHOF induction ceremony (scheduled a couple of hours prior to the restart of play that night), and apparently there will be a brief reference and perhaps a short clip.

As I say, I’m intrigued to see how it all plays out. It almost feels like the decision to show “almost live,” comprehensive coverage of the final table is a bigger story than the event itself.

In fact, without having a favorite player or any especially compelling story regarding a player going in, I’m probably more interested in seeing how the coverage is handled, its possible affect on the play, and how it is received than I am in finding out who wins.

On the “Almost Live” Feed (with Hole Cards)

Was in full-on poker fan mode last night, following the live stream of the WPT Foxwoods final table on the laptop while watching the WSOP Main Event coverage on ESPN. In a way, the WPT stream -- in which we had commentary along with players’ hole cards shown on a 30-minute delay -- was kind of a preview of what we’ll be seeing this Sunday with the WSOP ME’s final table, where we’ll also get to see all of the hands (with hole cards) on just a 15-minute delay. The first “almost live” WSOP final table (with hole cards) ever! (See here for details.)

Some are starting to debate how showing players’ hole cards with such a short delay might significantly affect action at the table. After all, there was a single hand shown on last night’s WSOP coverage -- one involving Matt Giannetti and Ben Lamb -- that thanks to a long river tank by Giannetti took something like 13 minutes! (That hand was abridged to just a couple of minutes on last night’s edited show on ESPN.)

As it happened, the WPT live stream actually presented a concrete example of how showing players’ cards on a short delay could theoretically affect the tourney.

The final table rapidly played down from six- to three-handed, at which point one of the players -- the 60-something Bob Carbone -- had what appeared to be a fairly clear disadvantage skill-wise versus the two young pros, Daniel Santoro and Christian Harder. Although short-stacked, Carbone managed to hang on for a good while largely thanks to picking up a number of big hands (although he often failed to get paid much with them). Finally he was ousted in third, however.

The commentators -- Tony Dunst, Jonathan Little, and Nick Brancato -- were quite good, in my opinion, with their on-the-spot discussions of strategy. They definitely made watching the feed enjoyable, as did our buds B.J. Nemeth and Jess Welman with their appearances during the breaks. The fact that Carbone had less experience than the two pros made for an interesting dynamic, too, that enabled the commentators to highlight some of Carbone’s missed opportunities in ways that were genuinely instructive. Especially for those of us who are probably more like Carbone than like Santoro or Harder in our play.

After a while, the commentators began to talk about an apparent tell Carbone had having to do with how he arranged his chips. If he picked up a big hand like A-A, A-K, or Q-Q (which he did with higher-than-expected frequency, actually), he’d place stacks of chips on his cards. Meanwhile, if he picked up something less sexy like A-4 or K-8 or the like, he’d place only a single chip on each of his two hole cards.

See, for example, that picture above, a hand in which Carbone picked up and opened with a smallish raise. Notice how he’s only got a single chip on each of his face-down hole cards? (Here is a detail to the left.) That was the tell the commentators made a lot of in their commentary.

“It's like the most absurd tell I’ve ever seen in my life,” said Little. Indeed, it was remarkable to watch, and once the commentators had pointed it out it added another wrinkle to the show that made things all the more interesting.

It should be added that Carbone was demonstrating a fairly easy-to-spot pattern in his bet-sizing, too, raising big with big hands and small with marginal ones. But, of course, all of that was a lot easier for the commentators and viewers to spot with the knowledge of his hole cards. In fact, Carbone wasn’t having to show down a lot of hands, so his opponents couldn’t know for sure how the patterns of chip placement and betting matched up with his holdings.

While the players didn’t have phones at the table, one expected they probably would talk with friends during the breaks. And, perhaps, they’d talk to someone watching the stream who might communicate to them what their opponent was holding when, say, he made a big bet. Or placed a single chip on each of his cards rather than a stack.

A conversation began on my Twitter feed regarding the issue.

Randal Flowers (@RandALLin) said it was a “pretty big disadvantage for Bob” to have the cards shown on a 30-minute delay. “With announcers announcing (albeit obvious) tells on players, the fish has almost 0 shot,” added Flowers, who added that he assumed Charder and Santoro would be getting texts relaying the information.

“I think this stuff is going to be the end of moneymakers and golds and yangs,” chimed in Jonathan Aguiar (@JonAguiar). “The pros will have too big an edge.”

Justin Bonomo (@JustinBonomo) disagreed with Aguiar, calling it “crazy hyperbole” to think the situation gave an especially significant advantage to the pros versus the amateur. “The edge isn’t even remotely close to that big,” said Bonomo.

Others chimed in on either side, but you get the gist of the debate. Whether or not play was actually affected by the live stream at last night’s final table -- and if any players gained an extra edge along the way because of it -- is hard to say, really. But you can see how showing the hole cards to a viewing audience relatively soon after a hand is played has the potential to matter a lot when it comes to how the tourney plays.

We’ll see how things are handled at the Rio this weekend, where one assumes players will not have phones at the table, although will surely be consulting heavily with friends on breaks.

Jesse May was addressing this issue in his commentary on the WSOPE Main Event a couple of weeks ago (see here). What do you think about this new trend in poker television -- one that certainly adds to the excitement of watching, but perhaps could unduly affect how the games are played?

In a Subjunctive Mood

“It’s not a question of ‘if’....”

That’s a favorite line of late when it comes to the possibility of federal legislation to license and regulate online poker in the United States.

Not long ago Jim Ryan, co-CEO of Bwin-Party, was being quoted in The New York Times in a piece on online poker (discussed here) proclaiming of such legislation that “It’s no longer a question of if, it’s a question of when it will be passed.”

And last week John Pappas, Executive Director of the Poker Players Alliance, came away from that House hearing on “Internet Gaming: Is There a Safe Bet?” saying how encouraged he was by what appears to have been a sea change in legislators’ approach to the topic of licensing and regulating online poker in the U.S.

“The question on the lawmakers’ minds was not ‘if’ internet poker should be regulated, but rather ‘how’ should regulation look,” wrote Pappas in his recap of the hearing.

Yesterday came more news that some are taking as yet another sign that we’re moving away from the uncertainty of “if” and into something more definitive regarding the prospects for such legislation to occur. That news concerned agreements being struck between the Boyd Gaming Corporation, MGM Resorts International, and the Bwin-Party folks regarding future plans should legislation be passed in the United States to license and regulate online poker.

The skinny is that should online poker become legal in the U.S., a new company would be formed by the three entities that would subsequently aim to offer online poker to Americans. The new company would be mostly owned by Bwin-Party -- they’d have 65% to MGM’s 25% and Boyd’s 10% -- with those percentages representing both what each group would put into the new company to start and operate it as well as what they’d get out of it down the line.

You might recall how the Bwin and Party groups got together in the spring of 2010 to form what is now the largest online gambling company in the world. Their stock rose even more over the last 24 hours, jumping a good bit since the news broke regarding yesterday’s agreement. Meanwhile, MGM and Boyd both saw their stock slip a touch since yesterday. (That to the left is a composite screen shot from MarketWatch showing how the respective companies’ stocks looked mid-afternoon Tuesday.)

An article about the agreement appearing over on MarketWatch yesterday quoted MGM CEO Jim Murren necessarily describing the agreement as “anticipatory” -- i.e., a move by the huge gaming company to ready itself for possible legislation.

The article refers to Murren explaining how the new (unnamed company) “will offer games under Bwin brands like PartyPoker” while also adding that “MGM would be ‘very interested’ in using Bwin's existing technology to operate sites under its brands, which would include MGM Grand, Bellagio and Mandalay Bay.”

Boyd Gaming also owns a number of smaller Vegas properties like the Orleans, the Gold Coast, and others across the country (including half of the Borgata in Atlantic City). Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article about the agreement quotes Keith Smith, the CEO from Boyd Gaming, similarly describing “online poker as a compelling future growth opportunity” and how the agreement “would position” his company to be in a good spot should legislation in the U.S. occur.

And like Murren and MGM, Boyd Gaming would also be interested in offering online poker under its own newly-developed brand. Another of the agreements made between the groups yesterday was a 15-year one that would enable MGM and Boyd to use Bwin-Party’s technology to offer games under their own brands.

In other words, what is being envisioned here is a (near?) future in which we Americans are playing online poker “at” the Bellagio or MGM or other sites associated with particular casinos and/or U.S.-based gaming companies.

But is this really a harbinger that legislation might come sooner than later?

The Las Vegas Review Journal piece on the agreements yesterday brought up that so-called “super committee” again as a possible fast track for online poker. (Read more about the super committee here.) That piece also notes how the Bwin-Party-MGM-Boyd agreement is one of a few different ones that have been made (the Caesars-888 one forged earlier this year being the other most notable) in which big gaming corps are aligning themselves with online groups in preparation for a brave new world of U.S. online gaming.

Incidentally, in that LVRJ piece the well-known poker player agent Brian Balsbaugh is quoted as saying that the new agreements between Bwin-Party, MGM, and Boyd instantly made Bwin-Party co-CEO Ryan “the most powerful person in poker.” (That’s Ryan to the left, who prior to taking his current position in 2008 was the CEO of Excapsa, the software provider for UltimateBet, from 2005-2007.)

In other words, Balsbaugh -- himself a fairly powerful guy in poker (ranking #5 in BLUFF’s most recent “Power 20”) -- certainly regards yesterday’s news as significant, and not just in a theoretical “if-this-happens-then-that-happens” kind of way.

It was impossible when hearing yesterday’s news not to think about those other, similar agreements that were being made in the days leading up to Black Friday such as the Wynn-PokerStars one and the other between Full Tilt Poker and Station Casinos. Those were made on a contingency that legislation be passed, too, although as it turned out another contingency arose to end those unions -- i.e., the U.S. government unsealing an indictment and civil complaint targeting the involved online sites.

I remember wondering then about how unlikely it seemed that the U.S. was really going to let so-called “bad actors” like Stars, FTP, and others who continued to operate in the U.S. post-UIGEA to get licenses under a newly-regulated system. It’s still hard to predict that if legislation comes to pass just how the U.S. will look upon folks like Party and 888 who pulled out of the U.S. in 2006 -- or, really, any non-U.S. based (or “offshore”) company.

I’m recalling those amendments that were being stuck onto Barney Frank’s old H.R. 2267 last year by legislators, such as the one by Rep. Brad Sherman stating how when it came to giving out licenses, a company had to be an “established a corporate entity or other separate business entity in the United States, a majority of whose officers are United States persons and, if there is a board of directors, that the board is majority-controlled by directors who are United States persons.”

Who knows if such restrictions will be part of whatever new legislation might arise? The new Bwin-Party-MGM-Boyd company -- in which 65% will be controlled by the non-U.S. online company -- doesn’t seem like it would be given a license if language similar to Sherman’s amendment found its way onto a new bill. Then again, I suppose it is possible to move the shells around enough to satisfy those that matter.

(There is the whole federal-vs.-state issue with regard to future legislation that figures in here as well. Stuart Hoegner touches on that and other issues in his Pokerati piece on the agreements.)

Is interesting to step back and consider how when it comes to online poker the rest of the world has such an enormous head start on the U.S. The fact that U.S land-based gaming companies are “positioning” themselves by joining forces with non-U.S. folks shows how much America would need to rely on “offshore” sites to get anything going here.

We may still have legislators wanting to ensure that the new U.S. companies are “majority-controlled” by Americans, but practically speaking there’s no way online poker happens in the U.S. without a lot of foreign influence/input. Not in the near term, anyway.

We’ll see, though, how all that will be sorted out. Or if it will be sorted out.

Because, really, any statements about online poker and legislation in the U.S. should continue to be cast in the subjunctive for a good while.