2012 WSOP, Day 35: Waiting for the Big One to Drop

Day 2 of the ladies event moved quickly yesterday, with the field shrinking from 117 down to the final nine even before they reached the end of the scheduled 10 one-hour levels. There is a picture of the tourney clock from just before the start of play yesterday, in pink.

Sarah Grant of PokerNews made the money -- kind of neat as it was her first ever WSOP tournament. There were a few other notables who lasted longer but not quite to the final table, including last year’s winner Marsha Wolak, Lisa Parsons, J.J. Liu, Erica Schoenberg, Stacey Lynn Nutini, Leo Margets, and Jamie Kerstetter.

The two men who made the money each busted relatively early on Saturday, earning close-to-minimum cashes. In other words, not nearly enough to buy a condo. There was a little bit of applause when the first one busted (the one referred to in yesterday’s post), and no reaction at all when the second one did. As I suggested yesterday, I was glad neither became a bigger part of the story of the tournament.

Was again kind of a skeleton crew working on the event, although I think we came a little closer to “covering” it. I was the only writer, although I did have my buddy Matt there to field report and he was incredibly helpful. The photographers were excellent as usual, too.

I’ll be back on that one today to see it through, although am well aware I’ll be writing for a very small audience today as most eyes will understandably be on Event No. 55, the $1 million buy-in “Big One for One Drop” that finally kicks off at 1:11 p.m. Vegas time.

They ended up reaching the 48-player cap for the sucker. That means with $111,111 taken out of each entry to be donated to the One Drop charity, the total prize pool will be $42,666,672. By comparison, the $10,000 buy-in Main Event in which 6,000 or more will play will probably have a prize pool of about $65 million. Also, that ME prize pool will be divided among 600-700 players, while this one will be split by just nine.

The top nine finishers will divide the cash according to the following schedule:

1st: $18,346,673
2nd: $10,112,001
3rd: $4,352,000
4th: $2,645,333
5th: $1,834,666
6th: $1,621,333
7th: $1,408,000
8th: $1,237,333
9th: $1,109,333

The final list of players who are participating has been released. Looks like 26 of the 48 are described as “professional poker players,” with a few others (Bobby Baldwin, Dan Shak, Haralabos Voulgaris) who could be thrown into the group, too. In other words, it looks like about two-thirds of the field come from the poker world, while the other third are comprised of those first identified as “businessmen,” “CEOs,” “owners,” and so forth. Comparing how the pros ultimately do versus the amateurs will make for some interesting skill-vs.-luck fodder, I imagine.

It’s a three-day event. I haven’t really studied the structure sheet too much, although it appears to be set up to run more or less at the same speed as any other three-day event, with the average stack probably being around 40 big blinds or so once they make the final table.

Of course, all sense of proportion is being obliterated here, and I’m not just referring to the 3 million chips with which players will start.

I have written before about how hard it is for most of us to relate to so-called “high roller” tourneys. The buzz surrounding them is mostly made of wonder and awe at all the zeroes in the figures representing the buy-ins and prizes. That is to say, there is usually not too much focus on the actual poker being played, although there is a lot of curiosity about who will emerge as the big winner.

Heck, the buzz yesterday surrounding the $25K satellite that saw Gus Hansen win a seat, Shaun Deeb winning $1 million for second, and Jason Somerville $400,000 for third was enough to overwhelm the Rio, and I imagine that’ll only be more evident today, Monday, and Tuesday.

As I say, I’ll be on the ladies event again today. I’ve also been assigned to cover a different event tomorrow. Despite doing the reporting thing for a while, I’m basically second-string or a “sixth man” on the team here, and I’m fine with that role. And since I am on other events, I won’t be able to follow much of what’s happening with the Big One for the next couple of days. The nature of the assignments necessarily forces a kind of tunnel vision, the concentration on the tourney at hand making it hard to give much attention to anything else.

But I do finally get a day off on Tuesday, and so might just have to head over to the Amazon, if only to check out the fancy stage they’ve been building behind the curtains for the last few days. And perhaps to find out what it looks like when someone wins $18 million-plus in a poker tournament.

I’m guessing it’ll probably look the same as most tourneys. But it won’t be. It can’t be.

The winner of the ladies event today will earn $170,587 -- a smaller first-place prize than most events, although larger than some. Compared to the $18,346,673 going to the winner of Event No. 55, well, that’s just a drop in the bucket.

The Big One for One Drop One Month Away

Am settling in after the big trip, looking to relax a bit here over the next two-and-a-half weeks before heading Vegasward. Was able yesterday to catch up with some of the World Series of Poker coverage going on, including checking out updates on PokerNews.

Last night I had a chance to join Lou Krieger and Shari Geller on their podcast, Keep Flopping Aces, which has recently moved over to the newly-relaunched Hold’em Radio network. We talked some about my trip to Uruguay, but mostly about the WSOP. The show is being replayed all week and will be available for download.

I also last night had a chance to enjoy some of the live streaming from the WSOP.com site I mentioned last post. Saw a bit of the end of Event No. 3, the $3,000 Heads-Up NLHE/PLO event won by Leif Force, plus a good stretch of Event No. 4, the $1,500 Seven-Card Stud Hi-Low event won by Cory Zeidman. Couldn’t stay up for the end of the latter as it went until after 3:30 a.m. or so Vegas time, dawn here on the east coast.

After some glitches early on, the live streams appeared to be in working order. David Tuchman led the commentary on Event No. 3, with Steve Gross and Doc Sands helping out. The other feed had no commentary, but the cards and bets were announced well enough to follow the action.

Here’s that page again for the live streams. The next one starts at 2 p.m. today, I believe, as that stacked final table of Event No. 5 gets underway, the $1,500 pot-limit hold’em event with Bryan Pellegrino, Jon Aguiar, Tommy Vedes, John Eames, and Daniel Negreanu among the last nine.

For those looking for daily recaps and highlights from the WSOP, let me recommend “The WSOP Daily Shuffle” that WSOP Media Director Nolan Dalla is putting out each day. You can find those on the “News” page on the site amid other articles, including Dalla’s initial wraps from each event. For more then go over to the individual pages for each tourney and find Nolan’s “Official Report” from each event for all sorts of facts about each.

By the way, the WSOP made another good move this week by hiring Jess Welman as the new Managing Editor of the website. As we’ve come to know via her work with various other outlets, Jess makes everyone with whom she works better, and it’s great to see her teaming up with Nolan and the rest of the WSOP folks in this way.

One of the stories Dalla, Welman, and others are going to be reporting on more and more as the Series goes will be the $1,000,000 buy-in tournament scheduled to begin one month from today (July 1st), a.k.a., “The Big One for One Drop” (Event No. 55).

It is sounding more and more like the field for that one may exceed 40 entrants, perhaps even reaching the announced “cap” of 48. At present at least 30 have confirmed they’ll play, and when I spoke to Seth Palansky not too long ago he sounded confident they’ll get several more.

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve had some nice email exchanges with some of those involved with promoting both the event and the One Drop charity, and agreed to make Hard-Boiled Poker a “media partner” for All in for One Drop. There’s a website with lots of information about the tournament and One Drop, now the official charity of the WSOP.

Unlike some charities with dubious organization and/or handling of resources, the One Drop charity, initiated by Guy Laliberté in 2007, seems especially well run and devoted to an unmistakably worthwhile cause to increase access to clean drinking water in countries presently lacking such a basic need to sustain health and life. If 40-plus do participate, with $111,111.11 taken from each entry for One Drop, that’ll translate to around $4.5 million or perhaps $5 million raised.

Was glad to get involved when asked, happy to help folks like 2010 WSOP ME champ Jonathan Duhamel (pictured above with Laliberté) and others looking to promote the tournament and the charity. Besides, I’m as intrigued as anyone by the prospect of a poker tournament with a $1 million buy-in... and, perhaps, a first prize of more than $15 million (or even more than $17 million).

A ton happening at the WSOP between now and then, of course. Looking forward to a little time to enjoy being a fan before heading out to help report on it all.

Thinking About the Big One

Just listened to this week’s Two Plus Two Pokercast, good as always. This one (episode 209, dated 2/14/12) featured a lengthy interview with WSOP Communications Director Seth Palansky.

The interview comes in a couple of segments, the first one (lasting a little over a half-hour) being all about the 2012 WSOP kicking off in Vegas in late May and the second one (going for another 40 minutes) mainly focusing on the Circuit events that run year-round. The interview starts at about the 48-minute mark, if you’re curious to dial up the show and listen.

During that second segment there was discussion of the various logistical challenges that arise at WSOP-C events, as well as some talk of the controversy regarding the “staff appreciation” fee at these events that has received a lot of scrutiny of late. For more on the latter -- really a hidden fee that has added to players’ costs without increasing prize pools -- see Todd “Dan Druff” Witteles’ summary and update regarding what has happened in the past and where things stand at present.

For me one of the more intriguing parts of the interview came during the first segment when they were discussing the 2012 WSOP, in particular the $1 million buy-in no-limit hold’em event, a.k.a. Event No. 51, a.k.a. “The Big One.”

Early in the interview there was some general discussion of this year’s schedule and its record-breaking 61 bracelet events, and Palansky was asked about the various factors that are considered when the schedule is drawn up. Somewhere in there the $1 million event came up and Palansky kind of casually suggested it “will get a few dozen players at most.” But then later they talked some more about it, and I was intrigued by the additional hints Palansky dropped regarding the potential field size for the event.

Palansky noted how when the event was first announced the WSOP decided to add a caveat that at least 22 players needed to play in order for it to be an actual bracelet event. He explained on the show how that was the field size for Doyle Brunson’s first WSOP Main Event win (in 1976), which is why it was chosen as a minimum here.

It has already been announced that they’ll meet that goal, as at least that many have confirmed they’ll be playing. They actually capped the event at 48 players -- why they did, I’m not sure -- and when speaking of the cap Palansky said “I really don’t feel there’s any chance we don’t get there.” In other words, it sounds like we should expect 48 to play in the sucker, or something close to that number, anyway.

Palansky further added that more than 50% of those who play in the event will be amateurs or “non-poker players,” including people from the sports world, hedge fund managers, lottery winners, and Macau businessmen. The mysterious Andy Beal will be there, too, adding further intrigue. Also, when co-host Adam Schwartz suggested a line of 0.5 for the number of women playing, Palansky responded “I’ll take the over,” thus indicating at least one woman has indicated she’ll be playing, too.

All told, Palansky expects the event to raise $5 million for the One Drop Foundation charity. Recall how $111,111 of each entry will be going to the charity (here’s the fact sheet for the event), which means there would need to be at least 45 players for $5 million to be raised.

I was kind of amazed to hear that the WSOP really expects that many players to participate in the event. I believe Palansky, but am still kind of shaking my head about it.

When I appeared on “Keep Flopping Aces” last week, we discussed “The Big One” a bit and speculated about how big the field would be. One question that arose was whether or not it would sport the biggest first prize in poker history -- that is, would it exceed the $12 million first prize that Jamie Gold earned for winning the 2006 WSOP Main Event?

If 48 players actually play, that will create a total prize pool of $42,666,672. (Incidentally, there will be no additional juice taken from the prize pool for this event beyond what goes to One Drop.) The top 20% of players will be paid in this one, and according to the payout schedule if 48 play the top nine finishers will get paid, with the winner getting 43% of the prize pool. With 48 playing, that’ll be a cool $18,346,668.96!

If 25-29 players register, first place will be getting 48% of the prize pool, which means if 28 play, first place will earn just under $12 million ($11,946,668.16), while a 29-player field will be enough to break Gold’s record, with first getting $12,373,334.88.

When Lou Krieger asked me on the show to predict whether Gold’s record would be broken, I said I didn’t think it would. Even though we have known since December that at least 22 have said they would play, I couldn’t imagine too many more players would be winning to part with a million clams to participate. (Or could find enough backing to do so.)

But from what Palansky was saying on the podcast, it sounds as though Gold’s record is most certainly in jeopardy. The fact that the field will be containing a lot of “non-poker players” also indicates that the charity element more than anything is encouraging some to play poker for money that well exceeds what most poker pros would be willing to commit.

Indeed, I expect that regardless of what the total field size turns out to be, one would have to think there won’t be that many familiar faces among the bunch. Will still be a wild one to follow, though. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the player who manages to grab that record-breaking first prize perhaps give a little more to One Drop when all is said and done.

One Million Dollars

Not a lot of time for scribbling this morning, though I did want to share a brief reaction to yesterday’s announcement at the World Series of Poker of “The Big One,” that $1 million buy-in WSOP bracelet event scheduled to take place in 2012. If you haven’t heard about The Big One, you can head over to Betfair Poker where I wrote a bit about it today.

Besides making history as the largest-ever buy-in poker tournament -- WSOP or otherwise -- The Big One will also mark the first time (to my knowledge) that part of the prize pool for a WSOP event will be taken out to be given to a charity. A little over 11% of the players’ entry fees will go to One Drop, a charity started by Guy Laliberté who no doubt was a driving force behind the creation of the WSOP event.

A million dollars. Evokes Dr. Evil from Austin Powers. As does the bald-headed Laliberté, although I think it is safe to say the Cirque du Soleil founder is clearly on the side of good here.

A number of big names have already indicated their intentions to play in the event, including Patrik Antonius, Bobby Baldwin, Johnny Chan, Tom Dwan, Tony G, Gus Hansen, Daniel Negreanu, and Laliberté. A special platiunum bracelet will go to the winner, and the payout structure will be flattened a bit so that the top 20% of finishers get paid.

I mentioned at the end of the Betfair piece how the whole idea of having a $1 million event seemed to turn tournament poker upside-down. Rather than offering a chance to risk a little to win a lot, here we have an event where the buy-in will exceed the first-place prize money for the great majority of the events. At the 2010 WSOP, only three events saw the winners make seven-figure scores: the $50,000 Poker Player’s Championship (Event No. 2), won by Michael Mizrachi ($1,559,046); the $25,000 No-Limit Hold’em Six-Handed event (Event No. 52), won by Dan Kelly ($1,315,518); and of course the Main Event (Event No. 57), won by Jonathan Duhamel ($8,944,310).

I also noted there at the end of the Betfair piece how all of the other drama from the first week of the WSOP had made it so The Big One wasn’t even “the big one” when it came to this week’s stories. Probably not what WSOP organizers expected a week ago when preparing to make the announcement yesterday.

I don’t think anyone was particularly surprised by the announcement of a million-dollar event. The $250,000 buy-in “Super High Roller” tournament that was added to the Aussie Millions schedule earlier this year in a way signaled the possibility that such an event was coming, perhaps sooner than later.

I wrote about that one back in January in a post titled “Hard to Relate: On the $250K Aussie Millions Super High Roller.” Obviously The Big One will be similarly hard for most of us to relate to, never mind the way it will be impossible to “relate” the bracelet won in that event to the several hundreds won in other WSOP events over the last 40-plus years.

Although I tend to lean toward the “purist” way of thinking and thus often instinctively resist massive innovations or changes to the WSOP, I do recognize that one element making the WSOP special is the way it accommodates such a wide variety of games and buy-ins. So I actually don’t mind this new event being added, despite the fact that The Big One is going to throw everything out-of-whack records-wise. Will also be highly interested to see who ultimately ends up participating, much more so, probably, than how the tourney actually plays out.

All of which is to say I’m intrigued by this million-dollar buy-in WSOP event. Meanwhile, I’ll go back to trying to build further upon that one dollar I won over on Carbon Poker a while back, which I’ve currently run up to a handsome $2.28.

Perhaps by the time The Big One goes off next summer I’ll have written my book on how to beat $0.11 Turbo short-handed sit-n-gos.