Hedging

Might still have another post or two left to file under the “poker’s precursors” heading -- at the very least I’m going to do an epilogue recapping those games and adding a few other thoughts regarding them. Today, though, I’ll just pass along this short poker-related item from National Public Radio, a segment appearing earlier today called “Hedging Their Bets: How The Pros Diversity Their Poker Portfolios.”

Clicking the above link gets you to the short audio clip as well as a transcript of the report. Basically it’s just sharing to a non-poker audience the phenomenon of players buying pieces of each other in tournaments, presenting it as an alternative way to “invest” besides simply paying one’s own entry fees and trying to eek out a profit.

Poker pro Derek Wolters is featured as the investor, describing in particular his having played and busted the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event while also buying pieces of 16 other players in the tournament. One of those Wolters bought pieces of turned out to be Jake Balsiger who went onto finish third for a nearly $3.8 million prize -- good for almost $600,000 for Wolters.

“Are you a better investor or a poker player?” asks reporter Keith Romer of Wolters near the end, who replies he thinks he’s better at investing while adding “there’s not that many people who do as much investing as me.”

The piece does a nice job presenting the phenomenon of buying action, with the analogy of this being a way to “diversify” a “poker portfolio” helping get the idea across. The piece might give the impression that tournament players selling/buying action is somewhat new, when obviously it isn’t.

It also perhaps suggests misleadingly that buying pieces of others is a better investment strategy than playing oneself, with the bonanza Wolters happened to hit with Balsiger making it seem he exerted some kind of skill or strategy with his investments that was better constructed than the strategy he employs at the poker tables. That could well be true, but in just over three minutes there wasn’t a lot of space to give his two methods of investing a thoughtful comparison.

Finally, I can’t help but think how at least a few non-poker playing listeners might wonder a little about the ethics of players buying and selling each other’s action while also competing against each other in the same event. It’s an issue -- usually a non-issue -- with which those of us close to that world are very familiar, but from the outside it has to seem a little strange. That is, buying percentages of others whose success or failure is not unrelated to your own, not to mention the more direct possibility of collusion that always exists as a possibility when players who’ve bought pieces of each other happen to meet at the same table.

Describing the practice as “hedging” fits in one sense -- by buying up pieces of others, players do give themselves extra chances to win should they themselves lose. But are they “limiting their exposure” (as hedging is normally described) or increasing it? Just as poker is a more complicated game than it might appear from the outside, so, too, is buying action a more complicated investment strategy than the piece perhaps lets on.

I liked the piece, but then again I’m not sure. I want to hedge.

Image: $100 bills in $10000 straps, stacked in a pyramid, public domain.

The Futures Is Now, Bro

Was listening today to the new episode of Chad Millman’s Behind the Bet$ podcast for ESPN, a show I tend to enjoy despite not being a huge sports bettor.

The focus of the episode is the upcoming Major League Baseball season, and the conversation between Millman and his guests ranged over several topics although mostly had to do with futures bets, including those “over/under” bets on total games won as well as bets on a team winning their division, league, or World Series.

The conversation began with the Chicago Cubs, who Millman pointed out had opened at 10-to-1 to win the World Series (following last year, I assume) and now had moved all of the way to a kind of ridiculous 4-to-1 (I’m not sure which sportsbook he’s using). As the group pointed out, that’s more of a favorite than the most favored team often tends to be going into the playoffs, let alone to start the season.

The Cubs talk was interesting enough, and I imagine might have disturbed my Cubs-hating uncle who wants nothing more than to see them miss the World Series for a 71st-straight year. But I was intrigued by a point made by Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine about how much these World Series bets tend to favor the house -- indeed by a margin much greater than lots of other bets, including other futures bets.

The example of the Cubs who no one is giving more than a 20% chance of winning the World Series right now (what you’d need to break even on a 4-to-1 bet) is obvious enough. Bessire said after crunching all his numbers he personally had the Cubs at about 15% to win, the best of any team but not close enough to the odds being offered to make that a worthwhile bet to make.

Really, though, there are no good World Series futures bets. “If you dig into the numbers,” Bissere explained, and “look at all the confidence that you would need or at least the break-even points for all of the individual teams on the World Series odds and add them altogether you would get almost 200%, meaning that there’s almost 100% juice built into that.”

Like I say, I’m not a big sports bettor, but the point Bissere is making is one I’ve noticed before when perusing these kinds of futures bets. Offering the Cubs at 4-to-1 suggests they are 20% to win the World Series, if the line weren’t overvaluing the Cubs (which it is). The next biggest favorite is the Los Angeles Dodgers at 9-to-1 (or 10%), followed by the Houston Astros at 10-to-1 (about 9%) and so on down the list. What Bissere is saying is that when you add all 30 teams’ odds up, the total is close to 200%, which means collectively the 30 teams are being overvalued by nearly 100%.

I found a list of World Series futures -- not exactly the ones they had on the show, but close (including having Chicago at 4-to-1) -- and just for fun decided to add up the percentages. They actually only totaled about 125%, so unless I’m missing something, which I could be, the futures list I saw (at VegasInsider) wasn’t as punishing as the one the guys were referencing on the show.

Something similar, actually, usually results from these odds on final tables in poker tournaments such as we’ve seen at the World Series of Poker now and then -- namely, the odds are way too short for everyone. I know I’ve written about this at least a couple of times here before, such as in 2012 when I discussed odds being offered at the Rio Race and Sportsbook on the nine players making that year’s WSOP Main Event final table.

That year you could place bet on chip leader Jesse Sylvia to win at 3-to-2 (no shinola), which if taken at face value would suggest he was 40% to win. The odds for eventual winner Greg Merson (third in chips heading into the final table) were 5-to-2 (about 28.5%). Adding up the nine players, the total was close to 175%, illustrating the same point being made on the show about the exorbitant juice in World Series futures.

The majority of those making these kinds of futures bets are more likely to be seeking entertainment than value, of course, although I know there are some sharps who manage to find bets worth risking among the offerings. If I remember correctly, before the season my Carolina Panthers were something like 40-to-1 to win Super Bowl 50, a game they managed to enter as a heavy favorite. Alas, those who made that bet, like the Panthers, were unable to cash in.

For me, listening to the talk about over/unders and futures works as a good preview of what expectations are for the coming year, something that for me can make watching the actual games a little more interesting -- even without having bet on them.

Photo: “race & sports book” (detail), fictures. CC BY 2.0.

Eight Years, Eight Hands: Looking Back Through the 2007-2014 Main Events

Readying here for the Fourth of July tomorrow, and for the start of World Series of Poker Main Event on Sunday. Hard to believe the whole sucker has almost played out again already.

Thinking about the Main Event inspired me to rummage around a little through the last eight years’ worth of live reporting from the WSOP on PokerNews -- a pretty cool, easy-to-navigate archive. From each of the eight years I chose a single hand from either the final table or close to it and presented all of them in a compilation over in the PokerNews Strategy section.

Some of the hands were more consequential than others, but each featured some interesting, even fascinating decisions made by the players involved, thus inspiring the title of the compilation “The Second-Guessing Game: Key Decisions from WSOP Main Events (2007-2014).”

Part 1 covers the following hands:

2007 - The elimination of Philip Hilm in ninth place by Jerry Yang in just the 15th hand of the final table. Recall how Yang began that final table in seventh while Hilm was in first.

2008 - A huge hand early on from the final table between Dennis Phillips (with A-K) and Ivan Demidov (with A-Q) that suddenly sent start-of-final-table chip leader Phillips down to ninth of nine.

2009 - The wild Billy Kopp-Darvin Moon hand with 12 players left that saw both flop flushes and Kopp suddenly ousted in 12th.

2010 - The dramatic hand in which Jonathan Duhamel knocked out Matt Affleck in 15th, cracking Affleck’s aces after they were all in on the turn and Duhamel filled a straight on the river.

Part 2 then carried things forward with these hands:

2011 - Kind of a cool hand from heads-up between Martin Staszko and Pius Heinz in which both were bluffing away without a pair and Staszko finally pushed Heinz off his hand.

2012 - Andras Koroknai’s huge six-bet shove with K-Q-offsuit, called by Greg Merson called who held A-K-suited to knock Koroknai out in sixth.

2013 - J.C. Tran’s fold with six players left to Jay Farber’s four-bet in a blind-versus-blind hand. Tran had A-Q while Farber had pocket sixes.

2014 - Mark Newhouse’s elimination hand in which he battled to the river versus William Tonking, finally pushing his last chips in with pocket tens on a 2-4-J-4-J board, and Tonking found a call with pocket queens.

Remember those hands? Click over to relive ‘em and/or think about some of the strategy followed in each.

Gertrude Schimmel: First Female NYPD Chief, Poker Player

Saw a story earlier today over in The New York Times that Gertrude Schimmel, the first female chief with the New York Police Department, had died in Manhattan at the age of 96.

The NYT obituary for Schimmel details her fascinating life, focusing primarily on her lengthy career with the NYPD that lasted from her joining as officer in 1940 to her retiring in 1981. She’d been on the force for two decades when she and another policewoman took the city to court to challenge discriminatory promotional policies and won.

She was elevated to sergeant and then lieutenant in the 1960s, then eventually captain in the early 1970s. By her final years on the force she was a deputy chief.

Near the end of the article comes a reference to the fact that “Ms. Schimmel was an avid poker player who competed in professional events into her last years.”

I’d known that Schimmel had been an NYPD chief, although didn’t know all of the details of her story. I also knew already that she played poker during her decades of retirement, and in fact before she retired, too. How? Because I happened to have met her a couple of years ago when at age 94 she played in the Ladies Event at the World Series of Poker (from which comes the photo above, taken by Jayne Furman).

I had just told this story to some of my colleagues last week, in fact, during one of our dinner breaks from reporting on the EPT Grand Final in Monte Carlo. Amid a field of 936 on the first day of the Ladies Event, I’d seen Schimmel sporting an NYPD baseball cap with someone at her side helping her. Eventually I was able to say hello to her and talk to her helper -- her niece -- who told me more about her story, which I then shared over on the PokerNews blog.

I learned then that Schimmel had been playing poker for more than 50 years, and that like many who took up the game during the middle of the last century, seven-card stud was her favored game. She’d played at the WSOP in the Ladies Event a few times before during the 1980s and 1990s -- when it was stud -- and in fact final tabled it in 1998 (at age 80) when she finished fourth.

It had been a while since she’d played at the WSOP, and I remember her niece explaining to me that she’d had the desire to play it again in 2012, and so they made a trip out of it.

Having written a novel set in the 1970s that in part tries to imagine the NYPD as it existed then, it would’ve been very interesting to talk more with Schimmel about her life. But I’m glad to have had met her even briefly, and (like many others, it is evident) to have drawn some inspiration from having done so.

2012 WSOP Main Event Final Table Hole Cards (Complete)

Okay, show of hands... who watched the whole sucker?  Whatta marathon, right?  On the one hand, kind of amazing that last night’s three-handed portion of the 2012 World Series of Poker lasted as long as it did (264 hands!), but then again, given the super deep stacks -- and the stakes -- it probably should have taken a long time.

Greg Merson is obviously a deserving winner, and both Jesse Sylvia and Jake Balsiger proved themselves last night, too. 

Speaking of a show of hands (pun intended), I was making some references in yesterday’s post that revealed I’d been keeping track of the hole cards being shown on ESPN’s “almost live” broadcast of the final table.  I had the idea last year to do something similar, but didn’t follow through on it.  This time, though, I remained stubborn and went ahead and tracked the hands all of the way to the very end, and thus for today’s post I am sharing what I’ve done here.

I was surprised last year, actually, not to have seen anyone having done this sort of thing.  (Someone might have somewhere, but I never came across it.)  But my sense is there are some who would be interested in having this resource, including anyone wanting to perform thorough analyses of the play at this year’s final table as well as those just wanting to check on a particular hand.

A few disclaimers...

I am following the hand numbering used in PokerNews’ live reporting from the final table.  Some of you might have noticed ESPN’s numbering was off (by one), something that I believe resulted from a misdeal early on that ESPN counted and then couldn’t go back and change.  They didn’t really make a lot of reference to hand #s on Day 1 on ESPN, although last night they’d sometimes list it in the upper left corner.  Know, then, for most of Day 1 and all of Day 2, ESPN’s references to hand #s are one more than they should be.

The winner of each hand is listed first. You’ll notice a few hands with “X X” listed as hole cards.  Those were hands ESPN either skipped over showing or which for whatever reason they never were able to reveal hole cards.  Sylvia in particular didn’t show his hole cards whenever he got a walk, and indeed most of those hands without hole cards are from walks or rapid raise-and-take hands.

Still, just about all of the hands did make it to air, and only a few hole cards were missed along the way.  Note that ESPN’s practice was in non-showdown hands to show the winner’s cards and the cards of the last player to fold, meaning for almost every hand there were two players’ cards of concern.  (Only once, in Hand #306, did three players make it to a showdown.)

Donnie and Rich did a terrific job with the live blog at PN, and Mickey kept the counts in order the whole way as well.  I used their reporting for more than just hand numbers, but also to double-check a lot of what I’m listing below.  I should note there is one hand (#363) where I believe they might’ve gotten the winner wrong, but it was a small one.  And heck, we’re talking 10-plus hours into fairly intense coverage of three-handed poker by then.

Finally, it goes without saying any errors in this list are all mine.  And indeed, I’m sure there are a few here and there.  I’m reasonably confident the Day 1 hands are all accurate, as I had time to double-check those while also getting to look at B.J. Nemeth’s log of Monday’s hands, too, for further proofing.  I didn’t get to do that sort of rereading for Day 2, and so feel like there might be a few hands where I would’ve liked to have made sure about suits or other details.  (Anyone noticing anything obviously incorrect, feel free to let me know.)

2012 WSOP MAIN EVENT FINAL TABLE: DAY ONE

Level 34
1. Gee Ks Qd, Thomas 9c 6c
2. Sylvia 9h 6h, Balsiger 9d 2c
3. Thomas Qc 9s, Ausmus X X
4. Ausmus Ac 9c, Gee 10s 6d
5. Esposito Ks Kh, Merson Ah Jh
6. Balsiger Ad Jc, Thomas Ah Jd
7. Thomas Ah Qc, Salaburu 7c 5c
8. Balsiger Ac Kh, Merson Jh 10h
9. Sylvia Jd 3d, Esposito 10h 3s
10. Gee Jc 10c, Thomas Kh 9d
11. Salaburu 8s 8h, Balsiger Qd 10d
12. Gee Ks Qs, Ausmus 8h 2c
13. Merson As 2s, Gee 10h 9s
14. Salaburu As Js, Merson Ad 7d
15. Thomas As Js, Sylvia 4d 2c
16. Balsiger 9h 9c, Salaburu 5d 3h
17. Ausmus As Qc, Koroknai 8h 8d
18. Sylvia Ks Jc, Merson Kh Js
19. Merson Qc 5c, Thomas 9c 3h
20. Balsiger 10d 10c, Sylvia Ah Qc
21. Sylvia Ad 10d, Ausmus Qs 6s
22. Salburu Ks Kh, Gee Kc Qc
23. Merson Jh 5c, Gee 5h 4s
24. Thomas Kd 10d, Sylvia 9d 8d
25. Salaburu Qc Jh, Ausmus Js 8c
26. Balsiger Ks Qs, Koroknai Jd 8s
27. Salaburu Ks 10d, Esposito 8h 2d
28. Merson 10d 8d, Esposito Kc Qc

Level 35
29. Ausmus Ad Jh, Balsiger 9s 9d
*30. Thomas Qd Qc, Gee 8d 8c
31. Merson Ah Kd, Balsiger Qh Jh
32. Sylvia Jc 8s, Merson Qh 8h
33. Ausmus Qh 6h, Salaburu 8h 3d
34. Sylvia Ah 8h, Merson Jc 10c
35. Merson Ad Kd, Balsiger As Jh
36. Merson As Kc, Ausmus Ac 10h
37. Balsiger Ah Kh, Sylvia Kd 10d
38. Salaburu Ad Qc, Ausmus 10c 9h
39. Ausmus Qc 6c, Merson 4s 2d
40. Koroknai Ah 7h, Sylvia 9c 7c
41. Thomas Ac Kc, Salaburu 9d 8h
42. Esposito Qd 10d, Koroknai 8s 5c
43. Thomas 6s 6h, Esposito Jh 3d
44.  Thomas Ah 3c, Esposito 8h 7h
45. Sylvia Ks Qs, Ausmus 8s 8d
46. Ausmus As 8d, Thomas Ac 2s
47. Merson 9c 7c, Salaburu Jc Js
48. Thomas As Th, Sylvia 6d 4c
49. Merson Qd 9s, Salaburu Kh 10d
50. Salaburu Ah Jd, Sylvia 10h 9c
51. Esposito Kc 10s, Sylvia Ah 7s
52. Thomas Ks 9s, Esposito Kh 8d
53. Balsiger Kd Kc, Salaburu Qs Qh
54. Koroknai Qd 9d, Ausmus 8d 4h
55. Ausmus Ad Qh, Koroknai Kh Jh
56. Sylvia 9c 7c, Esposito 5s 5h
57. Balsiger Ac Kc, Salaburu 9d 3c
58. Ausmus As Qc, Koroknai Jd 9c
59. Koroknai 2s 2h, Salaburu Qs 8d
60. Ausmus Ac Qh, Sylvia Ad Qc
61. Balsiger Kh Js, Esposito As Jd
62. Thomas Ad Ks, Ausmus 8h 7d
63. Sylvia 8h 8c, Thomas 10c 9c
64. Ausmus 10s 4s, Sylvia Jc 9d
*65. Sylvia Qc 5c, Salaburu 7h 7d
66. Koroknai As 7d, Sylvia 8s 7s
67. Esposito As 5d, Balsiger 10s 10h

Level 36
68. Esposito Ac Qh, Sylvia 7h 6d
69. Esposito 10s 10d, Koroknai Ad 4s
*70. Merson Ac Ks, Esposito As Jh
71. Thomas Jh X, Merson 7c 2h
72. Koroknai 9c 8s, Balsiger 10h 10d
73. Ausmus Ad Qc, Koroknai 9s 2d
74. Sylvia Jd 9c, Thomas Qh 8s
75. Merson 7s 4s, Balsiger 9h 4d
76. Ausmus Qc 10s, Merson Ah Jh
77. Sylvia Ah 8h, Thomas 5s 5d
78. Merson Ad Kh, Balsiger Qh Jh
79. Koroknai Kc 9h, Ausmus Ah 9c
80. Koroknai 9h 9c, Sylvia Ks 6h
81. Sylvia 5d 5c, Balsiger Qd 9c
82. Balsiger As Qc, Merson Kc Qs
83. Thomas Kd 10s, Merson 9h 3h
84. Koroknai 9h 6h, Sylvia Qh 7s
85. Sylvia Qh Jc, Koroknai Ah 4h
86. Merson X X, Thomas X X
87. Balsiger As 4h, Thomas 9c 5c
88. Sylvia As Ac, Ausmus 7h 3c
89. Sylvia As 10s, Merson 8c 2h
90. Koroknai Ad Kh, Merson 6c 2c
91. Koroknai X X, Sylvia 8d 5h
92. Merson As Qc, Thomas Jh 5h
93. Ausmus As Kd, Balsiger Ad 8h
94. Ausmus 7s 5d, Balsiger 10d 5c
95. Merson Ad Qd, Thomas Ac 2h
96. Merson As Qs, Ausmus Ad Qc
97. Merson Ah 3c, Koroknai 9d 2h
98. Sylvia Qs Jd, Thomas Jc 4c
99. Merson Ac Kc, Balsiger 10c 6s
100. Thomas Jc 3h, Ausmus 7c 2c
101. Ausmus Qc Jc, Merson 6c 3c
102. Sylvia 10d 9s, Merson Jc 4h
103. Thomas Qh 10h, Koroknai 10d X
104. Koroknai Ac Kd, Merson 10s 8s
105. Balsiger 9h 6c, Thomas 10c 3d
106. Ausmus As 4c, Thomas 6d 3d
107. Merson Qh 3s, Ausmus 7h 2d
108. Merson Ac Jd, Ausmus Kd 5d
*109. Merson As Ks, Koroknai Kh Qd
110. Merson Ah Qd, Sylvia As 7c
111. Sylvia Ac 3c, Balsiger Qh 4h
112. Thomas Ac 3c, Ausmus Ah 5s
113. Ausmus Ac 8c, Merson Jd 7d

Level 37
114. Ausmus 6d 3c, Sylvia 10h 2h
115. Thomas 6h 4h, Sylvia 10h 5h
116. Balsiger Ac 10h, Sylvia Ad 7c
117. Balsiger Ah 5c, Thomas Qh 5h
118. Merson As Kh, Ausmus 10c 2h
119. Balsiger Kh Kd, Ausmus 10c 8h
120. Sylvia Ks 6h, Thomas 6s 5c
121. Balsiger 9s 8s, Sylvia Ah 8h
122. Sylvia Ac 5c, Ausmus Kh 7c
123. Balsiger Kh Jd, Thomas Qd 10d
124. Sylvia As 3s, Merson 5s 4h
125. Merson Jd 8d, Thomas Js 7c
126. Sylvia Js 8c, Balsiger 3d 2c
127. Sylvia Qh 7h, Thomas Qs 10s
128. Sylvia Ah Qh, Merson 10s 3c
*129. Sylvia Ac 9h, Ausmus 10s 7d
130. Balsiger 5h 5c, Thomas 8d 7d
131. Merson Kd Jc, Balsiger 2h 2d
132. Thomas Qc 7d, Merson 9s 2c
133. Sylvia X X, Merson 10s 7d
134. Merson 9c 7c, Thomas Ac 5d
*135. Balsiger As Kc, Thomas Ah 9d

2012 WSOP MAIN EVENT FINAL TABLE: DAY TWO

136. Merson 10h 6h, Sylvia Ah 9d
137. Sylvia Qs 2c, Merson Kc Jh
138. Merson 10d 4d, Balsiger 6h 3c
139. Merson Qc 10c, Balsiger 10s Jh
140. Merson Qs Qh, Balsiger Js 9c
141. Merson Ac Jh, Balsiger 4d 3c
142. Merson 10c 3c, Balsiger Kh 2d
143. Merson 7h 6c, Sylvia 7c 7d
144. Merson Ah 8d, Balsiger 6s 5h
145. Balsiger Qd 10s, Sylvia 7d 7c
146. Merson Qh 7h, Sylvia 9h 3h
147. Merson Kh Qh, Balsiger As Qc
148. Merson Kd 5d, Balsiger 8h 6h
149. Merson Ah Ks, Sylvia Qc 4s
150. Balsiger Qc 8c, Merson Qd 7d
151. Merson As Js, Balsiger 9h 5d
152. Sylvia X X, Merson 5d 3s
153. Sylvia Ac Jd, Merson 7h 6c
154. Sylvia Ks Kc, Balsiger Ad Jh
155. Balsiger Qh 6c, Sylvia Qs 2h
156. Merson Qs 7c, Balsiger Qc 3h
157. Balsiger Js Jd, Sylvia 9h 9c
158. Balsiger Kc Js, Sylvia 7c 5d
159. Balsiger Ac 6d, Merson 8h 8c
160. Merson Qs 8s, Sylvia Ah 6h
161. Sylvia X X, Merson Ks 3h
162. Sylvia Ad 8d, Merson 4d 3h
163. Sylvia 9d 6h, Merson Ac 2s
164. Balsiger 5s 5d, Sylvia 7d 5c

Level 38
165. Balsiger Qh 7c, Sylvia Ks 3h
166. Merson Qc 7s, Balsiger Kd 5h
167. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
168. Sylvia Ah 2s, Merson Kd Jh
169. Merson Ac 3h, Balsiger 9c 7c
170. Balsiger 9h 9d, Merson Kc 5c
171. Sylvia Kd Jc, Merson 7s 7d
172. Merson 7h 6c, Balsiger Jd 2d
173. Sylvia 9h 3d, Merson 10s 9s
174. Merson Qc Qs, Balsiger 10s 6h
175. Merson 6c 4c, Sylvia Ac 2c
176. Merson 6h 6d, Sylvia Ah 5c
177. Balsiger Td Th, Sylvia X X
178. Balsiger Ks 9c, Merson 10s 9d
179. Balsiger 8c 2d, Balsiger Ad 4h
180. Balsiger 10s 4d, Sylvia Jh 4s
181. Merson Ah 4d, Sylvia Jd 9s
182. Sylvia Ac 8h, Merson 5d 3d
183. Balsiger Js 5s, Merson Ad Jd
184. Sylvia Ac 4d, Merson 9d 3h
185. Sylvia 7s 6s, Balsiger Ks Kd
186. Sylvia 9h 6d, Balsiger Kd 4s
187. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
188. Balsiger Qs 6c, Sylvia Qd 5s
189. Balsiger As 3c, Sylvia 5s 4c
190. Merson 9h 4c, Balsiger Qc 4d
191. Merson Ah 8d, Sylvia Jh 10h
192. Merson 6d 4c, Balsiger 10s 3c
193. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
194. Sylvia Qc 8s, Merson 10d 8h
195. Balsiger Kd Qc, Merson 10d 8h
196. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
197. Sylvia X X, Merson 9c 6s
198. Balsiger 10s 3s, Sylvia 8d 4c
199. Merson 7c 6h, Balsiger Ac Qh
200. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
201. Balsiger Kd Qs, Sylvia 7c 5h
202. Merson 5d 3d, Sylvia Js 7d
203. Balsiger 9s 8d, Sylvia Jh 6d
204. Sylvia 8s 8d, Merson 10s 9d
205. Merson Kh 8s, Sylvia Ah 3d
206. Balsiger Ah Jd, Sylvia Qh 7h
207. Sylvia Ad 8h, Merson Jh 8s
208. Merson Js Jd, Balsiger 10d 4d
209. Sylvia Qs 6s, Balsiger Ac 8h
210. Sylvia 9s 9d, Merson Kd Qs
211. Sylvia As 4d, Balsiger 4c 2h
212. Sylvia Ac Qh, Balsiger Jh 5h
213. Balsiger 7h 3h, Merson 9c 8d
214. Merson 7c 4d, Balsiger 9s 7h
215. Balsiger Jc 7c, Sylvia 10d 4s
216. Merson Qh Jh, Balsiger Qs 10d
217. Merson X X, Sylvia X X
218. Balsiger 10h 8d, Sylvia Qs 2c
219. Merson 8h 3h, Balsiger 8c 4c

Level 39
220. Sylvia As Ad, Merson 4d 3s
221. Sylvia X X, Merson 9s 4c
222. Sylvia Kh Qd, Merson 5h 4h
223. Merson 8s 6d, Balsiger Kd 4h
224. Balsiger Kc 4c, Sylvia 9h 4s
225. Merson Ad Qc, Balsiger Qh 8h
226. Sylvia Qh Jd, Merson Ks 2c
227. Merson Ad 4d, Sylvia 7h 6s
228. Sylvia Kd 9d, Balsiger 8s 4h
229. Merson Jc 9d, Sylvia Ad 4c
230. Merson Js 8d, Balsiger 2s 2h
231. Balsiger 10s 10d, Sylvia Ks 7d
232. Sylvia Qc 7c, Merson 10d 4c
233. Balsiger 8h 8d, Merson Jc 2s
234. Sylvia 10h 7s, Balsiger 8d 5s
235. Merson 6h 3s, Balsiger 3h 2s
236. Merson 10h 10d, Sylvia Jd 6c
237. Sylvia Ad Qd, Balsiger Jh 3h
238. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
239. Balsiger Ac 4s, Sylvia 4c 3d
240. Merson Ac Qd, Balsiger As 4s
241. Balsiger Kc 10d, Merson Ad 4c
242. Sylvia X X, Merson 10c 3s
243. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
244. Merson Kh 4s, Balsiger 8s 5d
245. Balsiger Kh Jd, Sylvia 7s 6s
246. Sylvia Ah Kh, Balsiger 9h 2s
247. Sylvia Qs 2s, Merson Qh 3d
248. Sylvia 8h 8c, Merson As 5d
249. Sylvia 8d 5s, Balsiger 9c 2d
250. Balsiger Jc 10h, Merson 9h 4s
251. Sylvia Ks 8s, Balsiger Ad 3d
252. Balsiger Ah 10s, Sylvia Ac Qs
253. Sylvia Ah Ks, Merson Kh Kd
254. Merson 9h 7c, Sylvia Js 2h
255. Balsiger 6s 6h, Sylvia Kc 2c
256. Sylvia Ad 3s, Merson Qh 4h
257. Sylvia Qc 6h, Merson Qd Jh
258. Balsiger 10h 6d, Merson Ad Js
259. Sylvia 9s 7c, Merson Kh Qc
260. Sylvia X X, Merson 7h 2c
261. Balsiger As 6c, Sylvia Jh 3c
262. Merson Qc 5d, Balsiger 8d 7h
263. Balsiger Kc 3h, Sylvia Kh 3s
264. Merson Qc 8h, Balsiger 3d 3h
265. Merson Jh 8s, Sylvia As 8c
266. Sylvia Ac 3s, Balsiger Qs 8d
267. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X 
268. Balsiger Ks Qd, Sylvia Qh 2h
269. Balsiger 7s 7d, Sylvia Jd 6d

Level 40
270. Sylvia 8d 8c, Balsiger 8h 2s
271. Merson As 3d, Sylvia Ac 2c (split pot)
272. Merson Ad 4s, Sylvia 10d 5d
273. Balsiger As 7d, Sylvia 6d 4c
274. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
275. Merson Jd 3d, Sylvia 7h 6c
276. Sylvia 8h 3h, Balsiger 9d 2h
277. Sylvia Jh 10c, Merson Qs 2h
278. Balsiger Jh 6h, Sylvia Jd 3c
279. Merson 8c 7h, Balsiger 9c 2s
280. Merson Jc 9h, Sylvia 10h 6c
281. Balsiger 9s 7c, Sylvia 9h 3d
282. Merson As 5d, Balsiger 8c 2d
283. Sylvia Ac Js, Merson 6c 4c
284. Sylvia Ah 9c, Balsiger Jh 5h
285. Merson Jd 9d, Balsiger Jc 6d
286. Merson Ac Ks, Sylvia Jc 7c
287. Sylvia Qc 6c, Balsiger Ad 2s
288. Merson 9c 8c, Balsiger Qd 6s
289. Balsiger Ks Jd, Sylvia As Th
290. Sylvia 9h 5d, Merson 10d 10c
291. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
292. Merson 10d 2h, Balsiger 6s 3d
293. Balsiger 8c 7h, Merson Jc 10c
294. Sylvia 6d 6c, Balsiger 8c 3d
295. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
296. Balsiger Qh 8c, Sylvia Kd 6h
297. Merson Ah 3h, Balsiger 9c 5c
298. Sylvia 6h 4h, Balsiger Qd Jd
299. Sylvia 9c 7c, Merson As 4c
300. Merson As 7s, Balsiger 7d 2h
301. Merson 6h 3c, Sylvia Jh 10h
302. Balsiger Jh 8d, Sylvia Kh 3c
303. Merson As Ad, Sylvia 8d 7h
304. Sylvia 8c 4c, Merson 9s 7s
305. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
306. Balsiger Qd 3h, Merson Js 9c, Sylvia 9h 6h
307. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
308. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
309. Sylvia As Ks, Balsiger 5h 2c
310. Sylvia Ks 9c, Merson Jc 8c
311. Balsiger As 2s, Sylvia Ah 3c
312. Sylvia 10d 7d, Balsiger 10c 2c
313. Balsiger Ks 8s, Merson Jh 2s
314. Balsiger Qh 8s, Sylvia 7h 3s
315. Balsiger 5d 5c, Merson Jd 8s
316. Sylvia Ad 7s, Merson Qs 7h
317. Balsiger Jh 10c, Sylvia 4d 2c
318. Sylvia Qh Qc, Balsiger 7s 3s
319. Merson As Qd, Sylvia 9h 8h
320. Sylvia X X, Merson 8h 6c

Level 41
321. Merson 9d 6d, Balsiger 9c 2c
322. Merson 7d 5s, Balsiger 6s 5d
323. Merson Ah 10h, Balsiger As 2c
324. Sylvia Qd 10s, Balsiger Qc 3s
325. Sylvia Qh 5h, Merson Jd 8c
326. Balsiger Kd Qh, Sylvia 6s 4d
327. Merson 10s 2s, Balsiger 9s 7d
328. Merson 10c 3c, Balsiger 8c 6d
329. Sylvia X X, Merson 7d 2s
330. Balsiger 10c 9d, Sylvia 9h 3s
331. Sylvia Kd Jd, Merson Kh 4s
332. Balsiger Jd Jh, Sylvia Ac 5d
333. Sylvia 9s 2s, Balsiger Jh 7s
334. Balsiger Jh Jc, Merson 8h 2c
335. Sylvia X X, Merson Kd 5s
336. Balsiger Jc 8s, Sylvia 5c 2c
337. Balsiger Ac 4c, Sylvia Ah 7c
338. Merson As 10h, Balsiger Ad 3c
339. Merson 3s 3h, Sylvia Kc Jh
340. Merson Qh Jd, Balsiger 10h 9s
341. Sylvia 3d 3c, Balsiger Qs 10d
342. Balsiger Ah Ad, Merson 7c 3s
343. Balsiger Jd Jc, Sylvia 2h 2d
344. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
345. Sylvia 10c 9d, Merson 6c 5c
346. Balsiger Ah 7d, Merson 4c 3s
347. Balsiger As 4s, Sylvia Kc 10h
348. Sylvia Qc 9c, Merson Ac Jh
349. Balsiger Ks Kc, Sylvia Kd 9h
350. Merson Ad 5h, Sylvia Jc 4h
351. Merson Ah Jh, Balsiger 3s 2c
352. Merson 10d 2s, Balsiger Kh Js
353. Balsiger Qs 8s, Sylvia Jh 6c
354. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
355. Sylvia Js 7s, Merson Qd 2s
356. Sylvia 8s 2d, Balsiger Kd 9c
357. Sylvia Jh 10c, Balsiger Kc 8c
358. Balsiger Kc 10c, Merson 7s 3s
359. Balsiger Jc 10c, Sylvia Js 3d
360. Sylvia Kh Jc, Balsiger Ah Qh
361. Merson X X, Balsiger X X
362. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
363. Sylvia As Qs, Merson Ad 3h
364. Merson Ad 6d, Balsiger Kc 2c
365. Balsiger 3d 3c, Merson 5c 2s
366. Merson Qs Qh, Balsiger Jd 10c
367. Merson Kh 4s, Balsiger Kc 10d
368. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
369. Merson 2s 2d, Balsiger Kc 5s
370. Sylvia Ac Kc, Merson Ah 10s
371. Merson Ad 6s, Sylvia 9h 4c
372. Sylvia Ac 10d, Merson Ah 6d
373. Merson Kc Qc, Sylvia Ah 7h
374. Merson As Jc, Sylvia 10c 9h

Level 42
375. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X
376. Balsiger 2d 2c, Merson 9d 4d
377. Balsiger X X, Sylvia X X 
378. Sylvia 10h 10c, Merson As 4s
379. Merson 10s 5s, Balsiger 9h 8s
380. Sylvia X X, Merson X X
381. Sylvia Ac 9d, Balsiger 4d 3s
*382. Merson Kc Qs, Balsiger Qh 10d
383. Sylvia X X, Merson 3d 2c
384. Merson Kh 8d, Sylvia 6c 3d
385. Sylvia 6d 5d, Merson 7h 5s
386. Merson Kh 7d, Sylvia 10s 3c
387. Sylvia Jc 9s, Merson Kd 4h
388. Merson As Jh, Sylvia 5s 4h
389. Merson Ks 2c, Sylvia Kh 6s
390. Sylvia Jh 9c, Merson 10h 4c
391. Sylvia X X, Merson 3s 2h
392. Sylvia Qc 9d, Merson 7c 5s
393. Merson Qd 5h, Sylvia Jh 10c
394. Sylvia Qc 5c, Merson Kc 4d
395. Sylvia X X, Merson 5d 3c
396. Merson 3c 2c, Sylvia Qs 8d
397. Merson Kc 6d, Sylvia Qh 8d
398. Sylvia 10s 7c, Merson Qc 8d
*399. Merson Kd 5d, Sylvia Qs Js

*indicates elimination hand

2012 WSOP Main Event Final Table (Day 2 of 2)

Managed to stay up until about 1:30 a.m. last night watching the “almost live” coverage of the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event final table on ESPN2. That was the first five-and-a-half hours’ worth or so, meaning I saw the first three eliminations (Steve Gee in ninth, Robert Salaburu in eighth, and Michael Esposito in seventh) before hitting the hay. I mentioned yesterday how I was going on about two hours’ sleep, and so finally succumbing to fatigue I decided at that point to record the rest to watch this morning.

Gee’s early exit didn’t surprise me too much. I was noting yesterday how I’d seen Gee make some fishy plays back in July. I was thinking of his “accidental call” on Day 6 (to knock out Nick DiVella) and a couple of hands on Day 7 when he’d done some overcalling and chasing at the secondary feature table.

Both Salaburu and Esposito were relatively tight during the eight or so orbits they lasted. Didn’t necessarily expect that of Salaburu, whom I’d seen appear aggressive on Day 7 (although as I pointed out on Monday, it turned out he’d been dealt a lot of big starting hands). Esposito I’d seen less of back in July, but it became obvious early on when he limp-reraised with pocket kings -- then limped a couple more times with his short stack -- that he was probably outmatched.

Esposito’s exit came in Hand #70. I watched about 15 more hands after that before popping in the tape and hitting the sack. (That’s right, we’re using the old school VCR here at chez Shamus.) As it turned out, then, none of the first three players eliminated last night necessarily distinguished himself as someone deserving better as far as his finish went.

By then it was pretty clear that Greg Merson was the most likely candidate to make tonight’s final three, with Jesse Sylvia (still leading) also appearing favored to join him. If I had to guess at that point who the third would be, I probably would’ve picked Russell Thomas who impressed with the big call with pocket queens against Gee’s 8-8 early on, although appeared to turtle up following that hand.

When I awoke this morning I avoided email, Twitter, and any other idle web surfing and watched the rest of last night’s action.

Andras Koroknai’s six-bet shove of 40 million-plus versus Merson with K-Q-offsuit (Hand #108), resulting in his elimination in sixth place, was surprising to say the least. The analysis by Antonio Esfandiari during the hand (and by Olivier Busquet during the break) pointed to an earlier hand (Hand #85) in which Koroknai had been five-bet out of a hand by Sylvia, a hand which had happened long enough before for the Hungarian to have learned that Sylvia had held but Q-J-offsuit.

In other words -- if indeed Koroknai was influenced by that earlier hand -- having the 15-minute delay with hole cards had a significant effect on one player’s decision-making, and thus (perhaps) the outcome of the table as a whole. In any case, the night would conclude with Gee and Koroknai being remembered for having made the biggest missteps.

Jeremy Ausmus played his short stack well early on to chip up and out of the danger zone before getting tripped up in fifth in a tricky hand versus Sylvia.

Jake Balsiger folded some winners early on, but as the night went on made several well-considered bets and raises to keep his stack reasonably healthy, too. Then came the last hand of the night (Hand #135) and that blind-vs.-blind confrontation when he benefited from some impatience from Thomas to knock the latter out in fourth.

I enjoyed the show, and look forward to more tonight. Recall that last summer ESPN started trying this “almost live”-type coverage at the WSOP, showing every hand and then revealing the hole cards for the last two players afterwards (for non-showdown hands). I believe it was earlier in 2011, at the pre-Black Friday PokerStars Caribbean Adventure -- where ESPN first tried the experiment. The WPT also began doing something similar with its streaming of final tables online.

Even so, watching unedited poker on the tube can be a grind. With the commercial breaks and overall slow pace, they were playing at a glacial clip of about 15 hands per hour. Tough stuff even for the most dedicated poker fan, I think. In fact, there was one stretch during the latter part of play (Hands #88-#103) where an entire hour went by without a single flop. I’m still a little amazed that ESPN devotes so much air time on one of its primary networks to the sucker.

As I watched last night and this morning, I thought about my “Keeping Score” post from last week. Unlike back in 1997, when Tom Sims (all on his own) kept track of and then reported every final table hand as he saw it, now we all can watch every hand -- repeatedly if we like -- and not only know all of the immediately observable action but hole cards as well.

It’s also possible to pull together an even more comprehensive “scorecard” of the ME final table, too, by looking both at PokerNews’ reporting and the ESPN video. Of course, even there a few small items fall through the cracks, such as the occasional bet amount and hole card. In fact, ESPN missed showing one quick raise-and-take hand altogether (Hand #86) while showing a little montage of knockouts.

Thus we can go back and say (for instance) that Merson picked up A-K exactly eight times in the 135 hands dealt last night (Hands #31, #35, #36, #70, #78, #99, #109, #118), including the two big knockout hands versus Esposito and Koroknai. He also was dealt A-Q three times (Hands #92, 95, 96). And he won all 11 of those hands.

Incidentally, K-K was dealt three times last night -- to Esposito (Hand #5), Salaburu (Hand #22), and Balsiger twice (Hands #53 and #119). Pocket aces were dealt but once, to Sylvia (Hand #88).

We were able to see Balsiger dealt pocket pairs nine times last night. In addition to getting kings twice, he was dealt 9-9 twice (#16, #29), 10-10 three times (#20, #67, #72), 5-5 once (#130), and 2-2 once (#131). Salaburu almost equaled that clip by getting pocket pairs four times in the 65 hands he played. We saw no other player with pocket pairs more than three times last night (although some could well have folded them without their hands being shown). Balsiger picked up A-K five times, too (Hands #8, #37, #57, #78, and #135).

Gotta believe Merson (1st, 88.35 million) is the betting favorite tonight, although really both Sylvia (62.75 million) and Balsiger (3rd, 46.875 million) appear savvy enough to break through, especially if the cards cooperate. In other words, it seems doubtful there will be any slip-ups as dramatic as those of Gee and Koroknai on Monday, but who knows?

Who do you think will be the 2012 WSOP Main Event champ?

2012 WSOP Main Event Final Table (Day 1 of 2)

Just a few hours from now the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event final table will finally be underway. I’ll be tuning on ESPN2 in for the start for certain, and very likely might be sitting up into the wee hours to see who survives to the final three.

Last year I did an “almost live blog” of the WSOP ME final table (Day 1 & Day 2), essentially sharing reactions as I viewed the “almost live” coverage. Not sure I’ll be able to pull something similar off this time, for a couple of reasons.

One is that I’m going on just a couple of hours’ sleep as it is, having sat up all night following that All-Star Showdown match on PokerStars last night (and this morning) between Isaac Haxton and Alex “Kanu7” Millar. The other is I am trying to get my act together for a big poker writing trip to Macau for the big Asia Championship of Poker. I’ll leaving for that one on Thursday, assuming of course no hurricanes get in the way. (More on that here before I go.)

All of which means I am already running low on mental energy to do any sort of writing tonight, and probably would do well to preserve and recharge what little I have left before making that long, long, long trip to Macau. Not that the world needs another scribbler scribbling about the WSOP Main Event final table, as there will be no shortage of that happening over the next couple of days.

I do feel a little more locked in this year than was the case last year, though, probably because I followed the ESPN coverage a little more closely this time and did ultimately enjoy a lot of what I saw. Still kind of pine for 441 Productions’ handling of the WSOP from before, but I nonetheless found a lot of this year’s coverage (by Poker PROductions) fairly compelling and a step up from 2011.

I’m more familiar with the final nine players, too, and while watching these last few weeks’ worth of ESPN shows was reliving a lot of what happened during those last couple of days of play in July.

Chip leader Jesse Sylvia (1st, 43,875 million) is predictably listed at the sportsbooks as a favorite, and he certainly seems like a capable player who has an idea how to use his chips. I remember him excitedly talking to his friends on a break during his big Day 7 rush about hoping it wasn’t all a dream, which was a fun memory from the last day of play this summer.

Meanwhile, Greg Merson (3rd, 28.75 million) obviously stands out as a contender, with the associated sidebar story of his run at the WSOP Player of the Year (only possible with a ME win) adding another slight layer of intrigue.

Of the others, the short stacks Jeremy Ausmus (9th, 9.805 million) and young Jake Balsiger (8th, 13.115 million) are both likable guys who’ll obviously need some help to climb into contention. The extrovert Robert Salaburu (7th, 15.155 million) is also kind of a character who I’m remembering appeared to dominate the secondary feature table during the early part of Day 7. Come to find out from the ESPN broadcasts he picked up A-K like four times or something -- and seemed to connect with the board each time -- so that perhaps partly explained the rapid chipping up he enjoyed that afternoon.

Of the two older players, I’d be inclined to suggest Michael Esposito (6th, 16.26 million) has a better chance than Steve Gee (5th, 16.86 million) after remembering a few of Gee’s hands from July, but both are obviously big underdogs. Gee does have a WSOP bracelet -- the only player other than Merson to boast of such -- and so I suppose might have some ideas about finishing the deal.

I imagine Russell Thomas (4th, 24.8 million) also has some extra knowledge heading into tonight thanks to his training with Jason Somerville et al. (I think Thomas and Esposito are the only real non-pros at this final table, unless we want to count the college student Balsiger, too.)

And while most are focusing on the lone non-American Andras Koroknai (2nd, 29.375 million) as the villain who knocked out Gaelle Baumann and Elisabeth Hille (and who fortunately survived a helluva blunder in that infamous all-in-and-muck hand), he, too, has experience closing a big event, having won the $10K WPT L.A. Poker Classic in February 2010. In fact, the $1.78 million first prize the Hungarian took there is the biggest cash any of the final nine has ever previously enjoyed.

Lots of good storylines, I think, and of course more will emerge tonight. Like I say, I may just watch and enjoy rather than try to narrate anything as it goes, taking a turn as a spectator for once. That said, I’ll hold out as an option the possibility of jumping back on here if I see something that compels me to do so.

In any event, those who do watch, enjoy it! And feel free to let me know what you think about it, too.

Betting on the October Nine

Been poking through the Media Guide for the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event final table.

Still having trouble referring to the “Octo-Nine,” which sounds a little too much like an ointment or some kind of amino acid. Actually in the guide the final group is referred to as the “October Nine,” which is better, although kind of makes it sound like they are collectively on trial.

Which I guess they are.

Play resumes in Vegas on Monday afternoon. Like last year, we’ll be able to see it all on a 15-minute delay on ESPN2, with hole cards of involved players being shown after the hand is complete. (It will also be streamed online at WSOP.com and for those lucky ones with access to ESPN3.) They’ll play down from nine players to three on Monday, then return on Tuesday to finish it up.

Don’t really have a rooting interest, not that I usually do. I’ll definitely be watching, though, as there’s a kind of inherent drama associated with any WSOP ME final table that I can’t help but enjoy. And I like the “almost live” format, too, which ultimately does a pretty good job of helping complete the transformation of tournament poker into a sporting event. Almost.

The Media Guide includes all of the usual information about the players, the schedule, the history of the WSOP, and more. There’s also a page listing “Player To Win the Final Table” odds being offered at the Rio Race and Sportsbook. As was the case for all of the preliminary events this summer, one can bet on final table players and thus kind of play along. Here are the odds being offered:

Terrible, eh? I remember occasionally peeking at the odds for players at some of the final tables I covered during the summer, and every time I did I had the same reaction. They were consistently awful, and not once was I tempted to bet even in cases where after having covered an event for a couple of days I might have believed I had a little extra knowledge of players and their chances of winning.

For example, take the chip leader, Jesse Sylvia, for whom one wins a paltry 3/2 return. Glancing at some of the online sites’ odds, none have less than 3/1 (i.e., twice the return) for a Sylvia win. Not that 3/1 is so great, either.

Sylvia has the lead, sure, but are his chances of winning the tournament better than 1 in 3? With a chip stack of 43,875,000, he has a little over 22% of the chips in play. What would you say would be a reasonable estimate of Sylvia’s chances of winning?

See the stacks for everyone listed above. They’ll start back in the middle of Level 34 (blinds 150,000/300,000, ante 40,000). Setting aside the lousy odds for doing so, who among these nine would you bet on to win?

Poker’s Possible Worlds; or, “Easy Fold for Jesse”

Was watching ESPN’s coverage earlier this week of the last moments of Day 7 of the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event. A memorable finish to the night, of course, with both of the remaining women -- Elisabeth Hille and Gaelle Baumann -- going out in the last two spots shy of the nine-handed final table.

In yesterday’s post I was writing about “hand-for-hand” coverage at the WSOP. Once Hille was eliminated and the remaining 10 players assembled around a single table, those of us doing the PokerNews live blog decided to take turns reporting every hand from that point forward. As it happened, it would be over in just 15 hands when Baumann was finally eliminated by Andras Koroknai.

As I wrote about here last July, it was kind of a manic scene. I had been on the secondary feature table, and so once Hille was knocked out I raced over and hastily set up in one of the media towers by the main table. The action went quickly, and it would take just over half an hour for those last 15 hands to be played.

On just the fifth hand of ten-handed play, Russell Thomas made a big preflop all-in shove following a lot of action and everyone folded. He showed his hand afterwards -- pocket aces. It had been my turn to write that one, and as so as I watched it again the other night, I remembered the hand. I looked back after and saw I’d given the post a pretty generic title: “Thomas Pushes With Aces.”

In truth, the hand didn’t seem all that notable at the time. Sure, we were surprised to see significant action so quickly after ten-handed play had begun. But the way the hand ended made it seem not so remarkable, and soon we’d forgotten about it as we became preoccupied with subsequent hands and the plight of Baumann and her short stack.

Watching the same hand on ESPN this week, though, revealed just how dramatic and unusual it was. And how a decision made by one player -- chip leader Jesse Sylvia -- might well have affected the ultimate outcome that evening regarding who among the ten players would not be coming back next week for the official final table.

That picture to the left is a screen shot from ESPN’s coverage showing the chip counts at the start of ten-handed play. The first four hands had been blind steals, and so the stacks hadn’t changed a lot by the start of Hand #5.

The blinds were 150,000/300,000 with a 40,000 ante, so there was 850,000 in the middle to start. First to act, Russell Thomas opened with a 2.5x raise for 750,000 from under the gun. Jacob Balsiger, sitting to Thomas's left, called the raise. It then folded over to Greg Merson who reraised to 1.85 million from middle position.

Baumann quickly folded, then Sylvia made a four-bet to 4.6 million from the cutoff seat, pushing the total pot up to 8.8 million.

Everyone else quickly got out, and that’s when Merson responded by pushing his stack of about 17.6 million all in. The remaining players didn’t waste a lot of time folding, Thomas showed his aces, and Timmy the dealer was soon shuffling and dealing the next hand.

Check this out, though. In ESPN’s coverage, we got to see all ten players’ hands in this one (not just Thomas’s). Look at what they had:

Seat 1: Russell Thomas (UTG) -- (raises, shoves)
Seat 2: Jacob Balsiger -- (calls raise, folds)
Seat 3: Jeremy Ausmus -- (folds)
Seat 4: Steven Gee -- (folds)
Seat 5: Greg Merson -- (reraises, folds)
Seat 6: Gaelle Baumann -- (folds)
Seat 7: Jesse Sylvia (CO) -- (re-reraises, folds)
Seat 8: Robert Salaburu (B) -- (folds)
Seat 9: Andras Koroknai (SB) -- (folds)
Seat 10: Michael Esposito (BB) -- (folds)

Wild, huh? Three “premium” hands -- A-A, Q-Q, and A-K -- plus another big pocket pair (T-T). And the chip leader with 10-5-offsuit getting cheeky with a big four-bet.

On the show we can hear the players revealing their hands to each other afterwards. “Oh my God, I’m so happy,” says Balsiger, glad he avoided danger and was able to fold his A-K. Both Merson and Esposito tell the table about their respective pocket pairs. “What’d you have?” asks Thomas of Sylvia. “Like 5-3-off?”

“Something like that,” answers Sylvia with a grin.

Incidentally, if we had been closer to the table, I probably would have reported that chatter afterwards, which would’ve certainly helped suggest more about the hand and its significance -- although not everything.

Talk about “what if”! If Sylvia doesn’t make his play, how do you think the preflop action might have played out? Does someone get his stack in against Thomas’s aces? Do they get to a flop (at which point any number of possibilities could play out)?

At the time, Baumann had just a little more than 2 million, not even seven big blinds. If Sylvia doesn’t make his four-bet, might she have made the final table?

“Easy fold for Jesse,” says Norman Chad, initially describing Sylvia’s decision. “Easy fold for Jesse,” repeats Lon McEachern somewhat comically when it becomes apparent Sylvia isn’t folding right away.

And then he doesn’t. Proving again that poker is a game of many possible worlds. There’s what happens. Then there’s what might have happened. And then there’s what we all think happened.

Proved something else, too. Nothing is easy.

Showing Not Telling: ESPN’s “Tells” Segments

ESPN continues its coverage of the 2012 WSOP Main Event tonight. I believe after showing the bubble bursting last week they’ll be showing more highlights from Day 4 this week.

I’ve been watching off and on over the last few weeks. During last Tuesday night’s episode I was noticing some chatter on Twitter from Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) regarding the “Tells” segment featuring former FBI interrogator and author Joe Navarro, of which Negreanu doesn’t think too highly.

I believe Navarro’s segment is only coming on once per night -- i.e., just a very brief piece (like half a minute) appearing at some point during the two one-hour episodes. If it’s coming more frequently than that, I’ve missed it.

Last week the segment appeared near the end of the second hour following what was really a mundane three-way hand between Vivek Rajkumar, Anthony Scherer, and Patrick Khayat. If you watched the show last week, you might vaguely remember it as the hand during which Norman Chad and Lon McEachearn made a lot of the fact that all three of the players involved had credentials when it came to higher ed (multiple degrees, one went to MIT, etc.).

In the hand, Rajkumar open-raises with , Scherer calls with , and Khayat calls as well from the blinds with . The flop comes , it checks to Rajkumar who bets, Scherer raises, and the others fold. “Scherer may have picked up the pot,” then says McEachern, “but if his opponents were watching, they may have picked up some tells.”

That’s when Navarro comes on to analyze Scherer’s behavior during the hand. He notes Scherer’s “chest heaving,” although doesn’t say what that indicates. He also points out how Scherer grabs his shirt collar and pulls it up over his mouth “using it like a security blanket, almost to hide in the open by grabbing onto something that is soothing for him.” Navarro doesn’t say what that was supposed to mean, either.

In fact, if you go back and look at the hand, what Navarro’s analyzing all happens before the flop, not after. Scherer actually doesn't grab his collar until after the player to his left has acted. This might be to mask his reaction when the flop comes, although Navarro doesn’t suggest that. Then after the flop -- when Scherer raises -- he’s no longer holding his collar at all. (Here's a link that goes to the beginning of the hand, if you’re curious.)

Tells seem to be only marginally meaningful here, relatively speaking. And whatever meaning they might have, Navarro’s commentary isn’t really clarifying much since he doesn’t say anything about Scherer being strong or weak or whatever.

To be honest, when I watched last week I saw the Navarro bit but didn’t really pay much attention to it. But looking back at it, I can see where Negreanu was coming from when he tweeted “Just watched the Navarro segment and have no clue what he is talking about. Security blanket shirts mean what exactly? He’s strong and weak?”

We might cut Navarro a little bit of slack and say the hand that was selected for analysis was hardly a good one for talking about tells. Then again, it’s not like there’s a paucity of hands from which to choose. And as I say, without any conclusions being drawn about the meaning of the tells, it’s hard to know what to do with the observations he’s sharing.

The previous week’s “Tells” segment went similarly, with Navarro talking about Gregory Milliron being stoic and hiding his tells but not connecting that with the hand we just saw or drawing any conclusions regarding the meaning of his behavior. In fact, the segment was really just saying Milliron had no tells to speak of in the hand we were just shown.

While I come at it with a lot less experience and knowledge than Negreanu, I nonetheless share his confusion about what exactly we’re supposed to be getting from these analyses. For those of you who’ve been watching, what are your thoughts about these Navarro “Tells” segments?

By the way, for more intriguing and useful discussion of tells, check out Zachary Elwood’s recent posts about Guy Laliberte’s behavior during various televised appearances, including the Big One for One Drop. He’s put together three intriguing discussions -- two about Laliberte’s body language (Part 1 and Part 2), and another about his bet timing and habit of leaning back in the chair. Lots of interesting (and enlightening) findings tucked in those posts.

Obviously Elwood has more freedom to elaborate on his observations than does Navarro in a short video segment. But still, the Navarro segments’ lack of a conclusion -- his not offering to tell us what the tells mean -- make them much less useful, not to mention a little frustrating.

Or maybe I’m missing something. Could it be that Navarro is telling us what the tells mean, but non-verbally?

(EDIT [added 7 p.m.]: It appears this week ESPN isn't showing the WSOP tonight, but is instead moving the shows to Wednesday, I suppose to compete against the opening of the NFL season [?].)

Revisiting Selbst vs. Lamb, 2012 WSOP ME, Day 3

This week ESPN began airing its coverage of the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event. Like last year, they are picking things up on Day 3 after the entire field finally combined.

Unlike last year, there was no “almost live” coverage of the WSOP back in July, so these shows that will be aired every Tuesday night through late October present the first opportunity for viewers to see anything from this year’s Main Event.

I’m somewhat intrigued to watch this time around, in part because I was there helping cover the ME for PokerNews every day from Day 3 onward. As you might imagine, when I watch I’m often searching the backgrounds for familiar faces -- and perhaps even my own.

I’m also keeping a lookout for hands I might have seen and even reported on, too. That was pretty unlikely to happen this week, given how most of the coverage centered on those two feature tables, neither of which I was covering. And with nearly 200 tables’ worth of players starting Day 3, the chances I’d be standing next to one and seeing a hand that ESPN both shot and thought worthy of including were pretty minimal.

But it happened. There was one hand featured on Tuesday’s show that I not only saw but reported on, too. It involved Vanessa Selbst and Ben Lamb who happened to be seated right next to each other to begin Day 3.

They weren’t at a feature table, but were at one of three other tables that had been separated for easier access for the cameras. In other words, the odds of a hand being shown from one of those tables were a little higher, generally speaking. But the chance that I would actually be over there at the exact moment one of those hands took place was pretty damn slim, as I was stationed way over on the other side of the Amazon Room that day and only got over there a couple of times early on before another reporter took over covering that section.

If you watched the coverage on Tuesday, you might remember the hand. ESPN only picked up the action on the river. Selbst, playing from the small blind, had led with a bet, Lamb had raised on the button, then Selbst was shown pushing out a big reraise. ESPN shows Lamb smile briefly at the sight of the reraise, think for what appears to be just a few seconds, then fold.

The board was . Selbst had for sevens and fives, while Lamb had for a spade flush. Thus when we watch on ESPN we see that Selbst forced Lamb to fold the best hand.

Like I say, I watched the hand live and reported on it for PokerNews. I even mention in that hand report that it might be a hand worth showing on ESPN. My report of the hand begins with the preflop action, and thus spells out how Lamb had opened preflop from the button and Selbst had just called. Selbst also check-called the flop after making top pair-top kicker. Selbst then led the turn after that third spade hit, and Lamb just called.

My report also mentions how much time the players were taking before acting, with Selbst taking a couple of minutes before making that reraise on the river and Lamb’s final tank-and-fold having lasted over three minutes. It was a tense one to witness, and I’m a bit amazed now to learn what both players were holding. Indeed, I'm kind of marveling over both Selbst’s river reraise and Lamb’s fold.

If you’re curious to compare my hand report and what was shown on ESPN, read here, then check out the coverage starting at the 12:20 mark of this video. (The latter link goes to the timestamp.)

By the way, one thing you won’t see in the clip is your humble reporter, who was dutifully staying out of the shots.