How Many Will Enter the 2008 WSOP Main Event?

Unlike last year at this time, I haven’t really noticed all that much speculating on the forums, blogs, podcasts, and elsewhere about the possible number of entrants for this year’s WSOP Main Event.

There was one thread over on 2+2 (begun back in early March) that didn’t get too much response when it began, flared up again briefly in April, then got some more responses after the announcement that the Main Event final table had been rescheduled to November. (Most estimate that move won’t have a significant impact on the overall number of players entering the ME.)

The thread hasn’t even reached 90 posts, though. I remember last year someone posted a contest to pick the correct number (perhaps someone will do that again eventually). Over 700 responded on that one, including me. I guessed 5,763, about 600 shy of the final total.

Guesses in this year’s thread mostly range between 5,000 and 8,000. (Oliver Tse predicted between 8,000 and 9,000.) One popular response was to say less than 2006 (8,773) but more than 2007 (6,358). Several also suggested that for a variety of reasons (including the weak dollar) we’re going to see fewer Americans percentage-wise in this year’s field than ever before.

Last year at this time, we were all still trying to keep our heads above water amid the considerable wake caused by the Unlawful Internet Gambling and Enforcement Act, signed into law in October 2006. It was only late February 2007 when Harrah’s made it known that “third-party registrations for players are not permitted unless submitted by Official WSOP sponsors.” That policy continues to be in place for this year’s WSOP -- it appears as Rule No. 5 on this year’s tournament rules -- although by now the online sites and players have had plenty of time to grow accustomed to the new arrangement.

On Monday, Lenny over at the PokerBlog posted some lines regarding the WSOP ME, including some odds on the number of total entrants. The odds came from an online casino called “Paddy Power.” Here are the odds they’re laying on how many will enter the Main Event:



Lenny says he’s going with one of the favorites here and predicting “right around 6,700” entrants. Phil Gordon made the same prediction last week on his podcast, The Poker Edge, also guessing exactly 6,700, although he also stated he thought attendance was going to be down this year at the WSOP. He must’ve been referring to overall numbers and not the Main Event, as 6,700 entrants would represent an increase from last year’s total of 6,358.

Says Gordon, “I’ve noticed the attendance in the poker rooms has been significantly lower over the course of the past, say, six-to-nine months than [it had been] in the past. The economy, as we know, is suffering a little bit. I think that although the rest of the world seems to be exploding with poker growth, I think the U.S. might be a little burned out on it.”

The discussion came amid Gordon’s interview with WSOP Commissioner Jeffrey Pollack. Gordon had asked Pollack to offer his own prediction, which the Commissioner refused to do (as he always has done). However, when Gordon offered that estimate of 6,700 -- saying he “wouldn’t put too big a bet on it” -- Pollack did respond by saying “We will see, and maybe off-air we will wager a nice steak dinner,” a response which Gordon interpreted as implying Pollack was “taking the over” on his prediction.

I don’t have much feel for what we’ll see at this year’s Main Event, although I do think the final total will probably exceed that of 2007. Of course, whatever the tally ends up being, it will surely be given more symbolic worth than it deserves as an “indicator” of the overall health of poker.

Warning Signs

Went to get my driver’s licence renewed late last week. A fairly painless process, as far as these things go. I was perfect on the vision test, and was able to identify all but one of the road signs. Even though they supply you with this card to study while you wait your turn, I somehow missed “no passing zone.” But apparently they give you one freebie at the DMV.

As I slipped the new card in my wallet, I couldn’t resist doing a hasty before-and-after with the old one. I’m not smiling in either picture, though not frowning either. Yr standard, stoic, go-on-and-take-it-so-I-can-get-outta-here pose in both. Quickly glanced at the dates each card was issued as well. Ah, yes. Hard, sober proof chronicling the passage of time.

Then I noticed that whereas before my hair color was designated as “BRO” this time it has been determined I’m “GRY.” Ack. Whatever. I’ve always been essentially doomed in that regard, as my father was already going gray by his twenties, was silvery by his late thirties, and by fifty was George Washington white.

Enough brooding. I pocketed the wallet and got on with the rest of my life.

I had to take care of that little bit of business now, as I’ll be in Vegas when my birthday comes up next month, helping cover my first WSOP for PokerNews. I fly this Sunday.

Been thinking a lot about what I’ve described to a few people as an unexpected detour for me in the life journey. Can’t really say I imagined taken something like this on even last year when I started doing some writing and other work for PN. When the opportunity arose, I discussed the whole deal with Vera and we both thought it worthwhile to do. Sometimes you just have to play your draws. What with time passing so quickly and all.

In the last few weeks there have been some interesting developments in the world of poker media, the most remarkable being the decision by ESPN and Harrah’s (or Caesars Entertainment) to move the Main Event final table to November. I probably wouldn’t have been on that final table anyhow, though did plan to stick around for it in July.

The most frequently cited reason for the move has been sagging ratings for ESPN’s WSOP broadcasts. The idea appears to be that the creation of a “plausibly live” final table in November -- prepared for by weeks of coverage of earlier events and of the winnowing of the ME field from thousands down to nine -- will help bolster interest in televised poker once again.

Meanwhile, we’ve heard news that the Game Show Network will likely be cancelling everyone’s favorite poker show, High Stakes Poker. And the future of the World Poker Tour may also be in doubt. As poker pro agent and industry insider Oliver Tse points out in a comment over on Pokerati, the deadline for GSN renewing the WPT is June 1st. The show apparently doesn’t “skew” well toward the GSN’s typical audience for its other programming (middle-aged women). Significantly, PokerStars pulled its advertising after the dismal ratings came back for the first week of the WPT on GSN. “The next 3 weeks will be interesting,” says Tse.

Finally, another curious discussion about TV and poker emerged over on 2+2 last week when a poster posed the question “Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels?”

Again, Tse weighed in, this time to suggest that if ratings for the 2008 WSOP don’t rise to a sufficient level, ESPN might well walk away from the WSOP altogether. What would that mean for the World Series going forward? Says Tse, “I would not be surprised if a group from the United Arab Emirates, namely Dubai or Abu Dhabi, will buy the WSOP from Caesars and move it to the UAE in time for 2009 if ESPN were to walk away after 2008.”

An intriguing discussion follows Tse’s speculation. I’ve no idea how plausible something like that really could be. Would be a hell of a 40th anniversary, though, if the WSOP ended up somewhere other than Vegas, wouldn’t it? In any event, if it were to go to Dubai, I’m damn sure I wouldn’t be following it there.

All of this uncertainty about the WSOP’s future makes me even more glad about my decision to go this summer. Where the road will go after that, who knows?

Not letting all these warning signs slow me down, though. I got my license, and plenty of fuel in the tank (for now). I’m gonna keep driving.

“If it’s buzz they were looking for, mission accomplished”

Been trolling through the ever-growing Two Plus Two thread regarding the announcement by ESPN and Harrah’s that the final table of this year’s WSOP Main Event will be delayed until November. Lotta hysteria there, as one would expect. A few interesting nuggets along the way, though. So you don’t have to read through all 567 posts, I thought I’d pull out five excerpts I found particularly interesting:

1. Two-time WPT champ Alan Goehring weighed in early on to voice his displeasure at the decision. “I love the WSOP ME (well, at least until now),” writes Goehring, “but if FT players’ participation in a reality show is required to play in the event, I will probably not play the event.”

Shortly afterward, responding to an earlier poster’s comment that “the real business here is not poker, it’s show business,” Goehring added the following: “My problem is I enjoy playing poker, but I don’t care about show business. What should I do?”

2. Tourney reporter B.J. Nemeth came on a little while later to respond to the many negative comments as well as point out some of the inaccuracies regarding the proposal that were being passed around. Nemeth has already outlined his support on the idea on Tao of Poker and elsewhere.

Nemeth predicts that “some of you will just be clinging to your initial negative reactions long after the potential benefits become clear.” He also says he’d “love for everyone to reread this thread in 18 months, after this ‘experiment’ has happened twice (the 2008 and 2009 WSOP).” Nemeth thinks that then “most people will laugh at all the negativity and misinformation in this thread.”

3. About 180 posts into the thread, Oliver Tse, a well-known poker player agent, shares some thoughts similar to those he’d previously aired over in the Pokerati comment section a few weeks ago. Tse notes the abysmal ratings for WPT’s Week 1 premiere over on GSN and the NBC Heads-Up Poker Championship, concluding that “the WSOP organization had NO CHOICE but to announce the ‘plausibly live’ WSOP ME FT presentation as soon as possible in order to put a stop to the negative sentiment surrounding the televised poker industry in the U.S. market.” In other words, says Tse, the poor ratings “forced Jeffrey Pollack’s hand.”

Tse goes on to clarify just how high the stakes are here, in his opinion: “If the ‘plausibly live’ implementation were to make no difference in the ratings, then the whole idea of televised poker as a rights fee TV property with multiple product sponsorships would break down completely. Televised poker would then be nothing more than infomercials for casinos and online poker websites. Dozens of people, including myself, will then be looking for new careers outside poker.”

4. Professional player Shane “Shaniac” Schleger has made several contributions to the thread voicing his profound displeasure with the plan. He makes several different points throughout the discussion, one of the more convincing (to me) concerning how the four-month delay utterly changes the whole concept of tournament poker.

“How are we supposed to keep the integrity of the game and the safety of the players intact under this new ‘experiment,’” asks Schleger. “Please tell me why poker players should be content to see the format of their beloved poker game bastardized and twisted around in order to (maybe) generate more tv ratings.”

5. Finally, Daniel Negreanu, a proponent of the move, chimed with Post No. 440 in the thread. “Judging by the length of this thread,” he says, “if it's buzz they were looking for, mission accomplished. It appears the majority of the buzz is negative, but buzz is buzz.”

He then goes on to say that he thinks “what most people are missing is that this change will effect less than 1% of the entrants. Getting hot and bothered about a change that will likely have no negative impact on you in your lifetime seems to be a bit unnecessary.” A curious observation, actually, since I think we can all agree -- no matter how we feel about the decision to delay the final table -- the change most certainly affects more than nine people.

He then points out that what we’re having here is a one-time trial which will be abandoned if it doesn’t work out. He says the final nine “will all get a minimum of a million dollars” (not quite sure that’s true, actually). After making a couple of other points, Negreanu concludes by saying how good he thinks the change will be for televised poker. “Reality TV is very powerful and draws in a wide spectrum of viewers,” says Negreanu. “Giving the main event a bit of a boost by copying a formula that clearly works with viewers in the U.S. is worth the risks of delaying the final table, IMO.”