I thought it would be interesting to compare the chip counts from last year to what we have entering today. Click on the picture to see a Word document that compares the final 27 from both years. Besides chip counts, I’ve also noted the percentage of chips in play each player held/holds, as well as each player's “M” ratio (as detailed in Harrington on Hold ’em, Vol. 2). The “M” ratio is the amount of chips divided by the blinds plus the antes for each round. Harrington suggests that if your “M” falls below 10, you no longer are able to maneuver very much and thus must make a move quickly. It looks like close to half of the remaining players are either in this situation or close to it, so there ought to be a lot of action fairly early today.
Notice how last year the nine who made the final table were all among the top 13 with 27 left. Only a couple of the short stacks managed to move up significantly before bowing out (Sean Sheikhan from 26th to 11th and Ayhan Alsancak from 27th to 10th), while only a couple of the big stacks busted out quickly (Ivey and Raymer). This would suggest that we certainly should expect folks like Jamie Gold, Erik Freberg, David Einhorn, and Rhett Butler to be at the final table Thursday. You never know, of course. Just ’cause it’s glittering today doesn’t mean it’ll be gold tomorrow . . . .