Thursday, July 30, 2009

On the Odds (2009 WSOP Main Event Final Table)

On the Odds (2009 WSOP Main Event Final Table)Not being a gambler -- not really -- I ain’t planning on placing any bets on who’ll win the World Series of Poker Main Event final table once they restart that sucker in November. Am curious, nonetheless, about the odds folks have come up with for such wagers.

Today on the Betfair site, chip leader Darvin Moon is listed as a 3.3-to-1 favorite to win. On Bodog, Moon is likewise listed as the favorite, though the odds over there are 17/10 or 1.7-to-1. And over at Ladbrokes, Moon is currently a 2.5-to-1 fave.

Here are the current odds for all nine players from all three sites:

Betfair: Darvin Moon 3.3-to-1; Eric Buchman 4.6-to-1; Steven Begleiter 6-to-1; Phil Ivey 6.6-to-1; Jeff Shulman 7.2-to-1; Joseph Cada 15.5-to-1; Kevin Schaffel 16-to-1; Antoine Saout 19-to-1; James Akenhead 19-to-1.

Bodog: Darvin Moon 17-to-10; Eric Buchman 3-to-1; Steven Begleiter 4-to-1, Phil Ivey 4-to-1; Jeff Shulman 4-to-1; Joe Cada 10-to-1; Kevin Schaffel 12-to-1; Antoine Saout 12-to-1; James Akenhead 22-to-1.

Ladbrokes: Darvin Moon 2.5-to-1; Eric Buchman 4-to-1; Steven Begleiter 5.5-to-1; Phil Ivey 6-to-1; Jeff Shulman 7-to-1; Joe Cada 12-to-1; Kevin Schaffel 12-to-1; James Akenhead 16-to-1; Antoine Saout 18-to-1.

All three sites essentially have the nine players in the same order as far as the odds go, with a few differences here and there. Of course, the most striking aspect of all three sets of odds is the fact that while they pretty much order the players according to current chip counts from first to ninth, the glaring exception in all three cases is Phil Ivey -- seventh in chips currently, but rated fourth-most likely to win it by Betfair and Ladbrokes, and tied for third-most likely by Bodog.

As a reminder, here are the current chip counts:

1. Darvin Moon (seat 1) -- 58,930,000
2. Eric Buchman (seat 6) -- 34,800,000
3. Steven Begleiter (seat 5) -- 29,885,000
4. Jeff Shulman (seat 9) -- 19,580,00
5. Joseph Cada (seat 7) -- 13,215,000
6. Kevin Schaffel (seat 4) -- 12,390,000
7. Phil Ivey (seat 3) -- 9,765,000
8. Antoine Saout (seat 8) -- 9,500,000
9. James Akenhead (seat 2) -- 6,800,000

Like I say, I’m not planning to place any bets, although if I were I think I’d probably take Shulman. I’d be betting on experience there, plus his having enough starting chips to make things happen from the very beginning. (Then again, people who bet against Phil Ivey tend to regret it.)

On whom would you bet (or are you betting)?

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Blogger AlCantHang said...

I'm smack dab in the middle of writing a FTP post with odds and handicapping the players. Should be interesting to see how the odds makers do.

On a sidenote, I was looking at old odds and you could have gotten Phil Ivey at +12000 prior to the series.

7/30/2009 6:45 PM  
Blogger bellatrix78 said...

Did you take into account the British notation over at Betfair? When they publish a number like 4.3, they actually mean 3.3 to 1 odds. If you have, apologies! :)

7/30/2009 7:05 PM  
Blogger Short-Stacked Shamus said...

No I hadn't, bellatrix -- thanks for that. (I went back revised the odds in the post.)

7/30/2009 7:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Took Akenhead at 751-1 b4 the WSOP started for $200 - hope he doubles up earl then I can hedge! Been a great ride so far anyway.
"The Absentee/Skinny Dynamite"

7/30/2009 11:43 PM  
Blogger Short-Stacked Shamus said...

Sweet, TA/SD. I actually hope Akenhead does manage a double up early & gets into the mix -- indeed, I almost said I'd also throw a few bucks on him at 20-to-1 or whatever in hopes of that happening.

7/31/2009 8:59 AM  

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