Seeing Stars, Tapie Taps Out

We awake this morning to little new information regarding yesterday’s bombshell that PokerStars may be looking to purchase Full Tilt Poker as part of both sites’ efforts to reach some kind of settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice.

Several mainstream sites have picked up on the story by now, including the Wall Street Journal where Alexandra Berzon, having spoken to “a person familiar with the matter,” can confirm “PokerStars In Talks to Buy Full Tilt Poker.”

Those of us who have seen the new documentary All In: The Poker Movie recall Berzon as one of the many interviewed for the film. She reported on Black Friday and its aftermath for WSJ, and thus was able to fill in some details on that as well as share other interesting observations about Full Tilt Poker’s “bluffing” and the whole poker “boom” being manufactured (in part) by the online poker sites and their loose-aggressive marketing campaigns. I wrote a little about her comments in a post here a few weeks ago.

The unidentified person to whom Berzon spoke confirmed that the purchase “would be part of a broader settlement of a civil case brought by the DOJ against the two companies.” In other words, the civil complaint seeking money from PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker could be settled here; however, Berzon notes, “the deal would likely not affect criminal charges pending against the Full Tilt Poker and PokerStars executives not in the U.S., according to the person with knowledge of the matter.”

The rest of Berzon’s article fills in further background regarding the indictment, the civil complaint (and its later amendment), as well as a reference to past history when “PokerStars and Full Tilt were once fierce rivals.” That latter point was the one that dominated my thoughts about it all yesterday -- the fact that for so many years we saw Stars and Tilt as not just distinct but opposed to one another. For me, that was a context that made the thought of one acquiring the other so wild to contemplate.

Given Berzon’s experience covering the story, I’m going to assume the person to whom she spoke is a well placed source and that we can trust from her reporting that indeed something is going on with regard to these negotiations.

Interestingly, the abrupt failure of the Groupe Bernard Tapie bid has grabbed relatively less attention, despite the fact that the efforts of the French group to acquire FTP have been so closely documented and reported on over the last seven months. Never mind that with that story individuals from both GBT and FTP (with names) have come forward with statements about the failed deal.

I always thought that GBT sincerely wanted to acquire Full Tilt -- that is, they were serious about doing so -- but their offer and method of negotiation never seemed legitimate. Diamond Flush’s detailed breakdown of “The GBT Repayment Plan, Fact vs Fiction” (posted on her site late yesterday) chronicles in detail the group’s mostly unrealistic ideas about repaying “ROW” (rest of world) players. Seems like just one of several aspects of GBT’s negotiating strategy that indicate the deal was mostly doomed from the start, thanks largely to the buyer’s non-willingness to spend.

All along GBT never seemed like they were bringing much at all to the table. Was like they had come to buy something, but in reality Tapie was pretty much tapioca.

There was some talk yesterday floating around about the GBT-FTP deal having somehow fallen victim to “sabotage,” an idea first suggested by an early tweet by iGaming France stating that “Laurent Tapie confirms deal is off for FTP buyout, insinuates external sabotage over DOJ negociations [sic].” iGaming France’s follow-up article mainly shared Tapie’s official statement that the deal was off and brief explanation of the reasons why, including a last acknowledgement that a Stars-FTP-DOJ deal was apparently in the works.

It is that reference to the Stars deal that apparently “insinuates external sabotage,” the implication being the possibility of Stars stepping in here weakened GBT’s negotiating position to the point of ruining their candidacy as purchasers. Unlike GBT, PokerStars is able to offer a lot more for the purchase and thus also better able to repay all players (including those in the U.S.) as well as perhaps settle with the DOJ regarding civil charges. (That $750 million figure we saw ChiliPoker CEO Alex Dreyfus tweeting about early Tuesday is repeated in the iGaming France article.)

No ideer, of course, of the order of things or who has been talking to whom and when, but it seems a little cynical for a non-legitimate suitor to claim (or imply) “sabotage” when a legitimate one comes along to knock them out of the running.

Sort of like GBT was sitting at the table with some trash hand and was vainly trying to bluff Full Tilt Poker off a monster... you know, like K-K. (We have to give FTP pocket kings here, right?) Then PokerStars reraises with A-A, forcing GBT to give up on the hand. Yet GBT still complains while folding, as though they should have won somehow.

Am certainly intrigued to see how the rest of this plays out, as well as to discover ultimately Stars’ true purposes for striking such a deal -- which I’m sure we’ll all learn if and when it gets done.

Because unlike the amateurish GBT who always seemed like they needed to get lucky to win anything, PokerStars generally plays just about everything like a pro, with each move made for a specific reason, and as part of a larger plan.

Developing: PokerStars to Buy Full Tilt Poker?

I remember a little over a year ago pulling together a lengthy feature article for a poker magazine for which I spent several weeks researching and interviewing players and industry figures regarding the “cold war” between online poker’s then-superpowers PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker.

The article was primarily focused on poker television shows and how top players representing the two sites were unable to compete against one another because the sites wouldn’t allow it. Most of the players I talked to hated the fact that they couldn’t play against one another on the shows.

Seemed kind of a one-sided thing, actually, with Stars being perfectly willing to let the FTP guys onto their shows, but FTP being less interested in such desegregation. Meanwhile, the shows’ producers (with whom I also spoke) had no restrictions regarding players -- that is, they certainly “cast” the shows, but didn’t follow any guidelines about not picking players based on which site they represented.

The due date for the article was April 15, 2011. No shinola. I managed to submit it a few days early before heading down to Lima, Peru for the LAPT event. That’s where I’d be when Black Friday happened. I knew shortly after hearing the news that Friday afternoon that my article had instantly become anachronistic, something I wrote a little about here a couple of months afterward in a post titled “From the Annals of Bad Timing.”

I was reminded of all that this morning amid this rumor-slash-news regarding PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker. Let’s back up a couple of days first.

“Recently heard some very promising news regarding full tilt,” tweeted Dan “jungleman” Cates this past Sunday afternoon. “Can't share it because it's confidential, but things looking very good :)”

Cates, of course, has a particular interest in all things Full Tilt Poker, given how he reportedly had somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 million in his account when Black Friday struck a little over a year ago. Stories since then have suggested he may have sold a good portion of that balance, but obviously he’d still be one to take a sincere interest in the fate of FTP.

Then early this morning, before the sun rose here on the east coast, a brand-new poster at Two Plus Two named “PS<3FTP” provocatively started a thread in the News, Views, and Gossip forum titled “Big News: PokerStars Purchases FTP(?)”

The brief post declared that Stars “has reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice to buy FTP.” Additional bullet points include players getting “refunded 100%” as well as “both sites back online.” (The latter seems an odd thing to say as only one of the two sites is currently offline.) “Expect more news today,” is the signoff.

Moderator NoahSD (formerly of Subject:Poker) correctly responded with cynicism, deleting the thread, but reinstated it after “a number of inside sources” told him there might be something to the report. So the thread remains, with posts being added at a clip of a couple hundred per hour -- none containing any additional news thus far, natch.

About four hours after the post appeared, Alex Dreyfus, CEO of ChiliPoker, tweeted an unambiguous declaration: “Pokerstars buys FullTilt for a consideration of $750m, including settlement with DOJ and full balances of players (330m). I'm impressed.” That got retweeted a lot, of course.

A few minutes later, iGamingFrance tweeted they had asked the Laurent Tapie group about the rumor and the response was they had no comment and would be sending out a press release later today.

Now PokerFuse has posted an article the title of which appears to confirm the story once and for all -- “PokerStars Reaches Agreement to Buy Full Tilt, Settles with DOJ” -- although they, too, are still seeking confirmation from the parties involved. However, the PokerFuse article does indicate that the Tapie group has apparently tapped out of the game, quoting a source at e-Gaming magazine confirming that “efforts to obtain final DoJ approval to acquire the assets of Full Tilt Poker have ended without success.”

The general tenor of the gradually building hysteria is that all are awaiting word from PokerStars and/or the DOJ in particular one way or the other regarding the possible deal. Meanwhile, a few have begun speculating about the reasons why Stars might possibly care to involve themselves in the FTP saga at all.

Indeed, our memories of the situation from just over one year ago remain fairly vivid, with the two sites standing side by side, towering over the rest of online poker as wholly separate entities with seemingly little interest in joining forces, even for a televised sit-n-go.

All of which makes this development -- actual or not -- all the more intriguing to envision. That is, an actual winner in that old “cold war” as a possible consequence of the U.S. government’s having used its own legalistic weaponry to drive both from American soil.

Will keep an ear to the ground here, and perhaps come back to update this post as we learn more. In other words, as the news sites say, developing...

EDIT (added 12:30 p.m.): Shortly after noon Eastern time, the GBT indeed announced “that after seven months of intensive work, our efforts to obtain final approval of the United States Department of Justice of the agreement to acquire the assets of Full Tilt Poker have ended without success.” The statement goes on to explain the deal failed primarily for two reasons -- an inability to settle on a plan with the DOJ to repay “ROW” (rest of world) players, and FTP’s U.S. legal morass which the GBT characterizes as “unresolvable.”

The statement additionally refers to “press reports that the DOJ may have entered into an agreement with PokerStars” regarding the acquisition of Full Tilt Poker. In other words, the GBT here is merely confirming that it has heard what the rest of us have. You can read the full GBT statement at iGaming Post.

EDIT (12:45 p.m.): Team PokerStars Pro Daniel Negreanu tells PokerListings he has no information regarding the story, adding that “the idea of PokerStars buying Full Tilt for $750 million seems impossible to me.”

EDIT (1:30 p.m.): Picking up on the “cold war” theme, Brian Balsbaugh, the founder of Poker Royalty (the agency representing a number of poker pros), sent a tweet a short while ago in which he imagined how the PS-buying-FTP scenario might appear from the perspective of the latter: “It's hard to explain the level of corporate hatred btw PS & FTP. PS w power/control over major FTP shareholders is their worst nightmare.”

EDIT (3:15 p.m.): Andrew Feldman of ESPN Poker spoke with PokerStars and tweeted just before 3 p.m. “there is no comment from them at this time.” A little after that, Team Full Tilter Andy Bloch cryptically tweeted “This might just be ‘Super Tuesday.’”

EDIT (4:00 p.m.): A statement from PokerStars finally came a little after 3:30 p.m. with a note from Eric Hollreiser, Head of Corporate Communications for PokerStars, explaining that the site couldn’t comment on either its ongoing settlement discussions with the DOJ or any of the other rumors swirling about. “As soon as we have information to share publicly we will do so,” said Hollreiser.

EDIT (5:30 p.m.): As the afternoon wore on, Shaun Deeb stirred the pot a bit by starting a new Two Plus Two thread suggesting he had some inside dope about the matter that “the deal is already done” along with some other semi-surreal-seeming stuff. Meanwhile, a Full Tilt Poker lawyer spoke with Diamond Flush about the failed GBT deal, noting that the site continued to hope that players were repaid. That statement ended with a reference to “settlement discussions with the US Department of Justice” and the need to be confidential, as well as an indication that “as soon as we have information to share publicly we will do so” -- i.e., language uncannily identical to Stars’ earlier statement.

Please Be Patient

Just a couple of weeks left in 2011. Every other year I’ve kept this blog, this would be the time of year I’d be devoting at least part of my mental energy -- as well as a post or three -- to thoughts of how my online poker ledger was going to add up for the year.

Can’t really say that’s the case this time around.

Since the spring I’ve continued to play for small amounts with money won in freerolls on a couple of sites, but there hasn’t been any serious attention paid to sessions or results -- nor the occasional withdrawals -- that have punctuated previous years.

I suppose I could say -- without even looking up the figures -- that 2011 is going to result in a net positive year for me as far as playing online poker goes. I say that because I remember exactly what I was able to withdraw from PokerStars back in early May, and I know that amount was greater than what I still have sitting over in my Full Tilt Poker account. Or at least what the number is that represents what I should have there.

I wonder how other players will be calculating their FTP money here at year’s end?

The news this week has been that the site’s deal with Groupe Bernard Tapie has moved a step closer to completion, which those of us with money still stuck on Tilt all hope represents another step toward the eventual return of our funds.

According to Subject:Poker, Full Tilt Poker’s ownership voted and agreed to the further transfer of assets to the Tapie group. But several more steps have to be taken before the deal will be completed and the U.S. Department of Justice takes over the business of getting the $150 million or so back to the U.S. players. (The Tapie group will assume responsibility for everyone else.) For more on where things stand at present, see S:P.

Pretty clear that 2011 is going to end without anyone getting back into their Full Tilt Poker accounts. Think back to the afternoon of Friday, April 15. Could you have imagined?

It took me a long time, but I finally removed the FTP icon from my “dock” on my Mac laptop short while back. Every now and then I’d accidentally click the sucker, then watch it enthusiastically bounce back and forth while the program failed to load.

I’d stare at the familiar message that I was “just a few seconds away from playing the most exciting poker games anywhere online,” smirk a little at that added directive to “please be patient,” then cancel the operation.

I enjoyed Pauly’s recent post on Tao of Poker, “Zombie Poker Apocalypse,” in which he meditates on the current status of poker and poker-themed entertainment, specifically televised poker. The scene Pauly describes reminds me of that stupid, bouncing icon... there’s movement, but no life.

I realized yesterday that I’m on a streak of ending posts with “we’ll see”-type statements. Such is the general state of things at the moment, poker-wise, I suppose.

We’re in a holding pattern. Necessarily waiting. For our money. For our game.

Return of Full Tilt Poker Funds Coming Sooner Than Later?

Was following that hearing this afternoon of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs regarding “The Future of Internet Gaming: What's at Stake for Tribes?” Some interesting and suggestive talk about the prospects for federal legislation going on there, with the tribes’ potential involvement being foregrounded throughout.

Right near the end, though, I was distracted by news regarding a possible deal having been struck between Full Tilt Poker, Groupe Bernard Tapie, and the Department of Justice.

The story, filed by Aaron Smith and Erica Fink, popped up a couple of hours ago over on the CNN Money site, although was subsequently taken down. The same article remains up over on Yahoo’s finance page; however, a disclaimer at the top of the report suggests it perhaps the article was posted prematurely: “Editors: THIS STORY IS UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL ERICA GETS THE CLEAR FROM THE LAWYER AT GROUPE BERNARD TAPIE.” (EDIT [added 6:30 p.m.]: The story has been removed from the Yahoo site now, too. Here is a cached version.)

The report says the deal involves FTP forfeiting its assets to the DOJ “which then sold the assets to the GBT.” The purchase price in this deal “brokered” by the DOJ is $80 million. Also mentioned in the story is a plan for the DOJ to dismiss civil forfeiture proceedings against Full Tilt. (Meanwhile, there’s no mention of the amended Black Friday indictment and civil complaint versus Full Tilt and its owners.)

More pertinent to most of us, it sounds like the deal also requires the GBT to “take responsibility for the burned players outside the U.S., while the Department of Justice will facilitate paybacks to the American gamblers.” We Yanks will have to “apply to the DOJ for compensation.”

Like I say, the status of the deal is not 100% certain quite yet. Shortly after the CNN Money article was posted and removed, the International Business Times reported that the deal remained up in the air, choosing the headline “Settlement Stalled?” for their report. Meanwhile, both Vin Narayanan of the Casino City Times (@CasinoCityVin) and Andrew Feldman of ESPN (@ESPN_Poker) tweeted within the last hour that they’d spoken with representatives of the DOJ who refused to confirm or deny any deal had been struck.

However, Wendeen H. Eolis over at Poker Player Newspaper did speak with a legal representative of the GBT who confirmed to her that the deal had been made pending “approval of the deal by a 2/3 vote of the FTP shareholder interests.” Other points of interest regarding the terms of the deal being reported by Eolis include the fact that that the “GBT will hold at least a majority interest in the company,” and that “none of the current FTP directors will be permitted to hold shares in the company.”

Quite a development, this, if the deal is indeed about to be finalized and the news hasn’t been prematurely delivered. I imagine if the FTP shareholders do agree to the deal we should hear some sort of confirmation soon from the DOJ. Would imagine FTP will have a statement of some sort, too. (EDIT [added 7:30 p.m.]: FTP has; see here.) Kind of par for the course, really, for such a story to “break” so uncertainly like this, given the way all of the previous chapters in the ongoing Full Tilt Poker serialized drama have been shared.

I guess we’ll stay tuned. And perhaps some of us will get ready to fill out those applications to the DOJ for the return of our cabbage. I suppose a problem may arise in there somewhere for folks who liked to avoid paying taxes on their winnings, though it is hard to say for sure exactly how that will go.

In any case, it’s funny to compare such a prospect to how things used to look whenever we withdrew from Full Tilt Poker.