Monday, October 06, 2014

Betting the Under Down Under

Was mentioning on Friday all the tournaments happening this month all over the world. Just realized today the World Poker Tour has an Alpha8 event kicking off in London, too.

Today I’ve been watching the UKIPT Isle of Man Main Event final table on PokerStars.tv, enjoying as always the delayed live stream they provide. I haven’t yet managed to look in on any of the WSOP Asia-Pacific live streaming, nor have I really been able to do much more than read the recaps of the action from Melbourne thus far given the 15-hour time difference.

Because of that, I’ve found myself mainly interested in the turnouts for the WSOP ASAP events thus far and that WSOP Player of the Year race between Brandon Shack-Harris and George Danzer who are essentially even and also far enough ahead of the pack so as to be only ones still in the running.

The first four of 10 scheduled events have gotten going thus far in Melbourne, with a couple having completed.

Event No. 1, the A$ 1,100 No-Limit Hold’em Accumulator, drew 611 total entries, down more than 43% who played the same event there in the spring of 2013. Event No. 2 (A$ 2,200 NLHE) drew 215 entries; that one wasn’t offered the first time around. Meanwhile Event No. 3, the A$ 1,650 Pot-Limit Omaha, saw 123 enter, again down a little over 28% when compared to the 172 who played that one last year. Event No. 4 is also a new event, the A$ 1,650 NLHE “Terminator” (involving bounties), which drew 250.

So small fields again for the WSOP ASAP -- even smaller than the first time around -- which’ll lead to more talk about the bracelets’ relative value. Will be interesting to see how many play the bigger buy-in events, including the A$ 10,000 Main Event and the A$ 25,000 High Roller. The smallest turnout for any WSOP APAC in 2013 was 81 players for the A$ 2,200 won by Phil Ivey.

All of the rest of the prelims on this year’s 10-tourney schedule are unique when compared to the five played in 2013, so only the Main Event will offer a direct comparison when it comes. Daniel Negreanu won it last year when they drew 405. If that were the line this time, I think most would be betting the under.

Meanwhile on the WSOP POY front, both Shack-Harris and Danzer cashed in Event No. 1, with Danzer’s 22nd-place finish earning him a few more points than the min-cash Shack-Harris got for finishing 53rd. That put Danzer at 762.20, nudging him just ahead of Shack-Harris who has 760.50.

Neither cashed in Event Nos. 2 or 3, but Shack-Harris is in the money in Event No. 4 where the top 27 made the cash (all of whom return tonight/tomorrow). In fact, Shack-Harris knocked out Danzer in that event, collecting a $500 bounty while also ensuring his POY foe wouldn’t be gathering any points from his finish.

If I follow the formula correctly, I think Shack-Harris has assured himself at least 7 points out of Event No. 4, what he would get for finishing anywhere from 19th to 27th. If he wins the sucker, though, he grabs a bigger bounty of 140 points (I think) to assume a commanding lead.

Looks like the WSOP APAC live stream starts at 12:10 p.m. each day Melbourne time, which I believe is just after 9 p.m. my time (ET). One of the these nights I might try to tune in, probably when that Main Event rolls around.

Then again, as I was talking about Friday, the EPT London Main happens then, too, and might use up all my poker-watching attention before the night comes around.

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