Wednesday, March 26, 2008

PLO Puzzle (1 of 2)

PLO PuzzleThanks to MacAnthony for clearing up a mistake on my Monday post. After spelling out that weird four-way all-in for that pot limit Omaha hand, I entered all of the hands into Two Dimes to see what each player's chance was, but somehow mucked the form so as to produce incorrect percentages. Turned out I was in much better shape with two cards to come than I had thought.

Obviously I hadn’t noticed the error, likely because even with top set and a straight draw I couldn’t comprehend being a favorite against three other hands. Can be quite challenging sometimes -- even after the fact -- to figure out what sort of equity one has in a given PLO hand. Had another interesting situation arise in a hand yesterday where I found myself faced with a quick, not-so-obvious decision regarding odds and outs. Tell me what you would do here.

Was at a PLO50 table (blinds $0.25/$0.50). I had bought in short -- just twenty bucks -- and had been folding hands for a couple of rounds. Then I get 6cJh9sTd in the cutoff. Am wanting to play this hand, but a player two to my left -- Brigid O’Sh. -- raises it up to $1.75. The player in between us, Wilmer Cook, who was sporting the table’s biggest stack ($78.40), called the bet. I thought a sec, and decided to call as well:

(For funsies I thought I’d recreate this sucker over on PokerXFactor to help illustrate the story.)

You might want to argue with my call there -- if so, please do. But the real quandary (in my opinion) comes up after the flop. Both of the blinds folded, so there were three of us left. Pot was $6 even. Here’s what happened next:

The original raiser, Brigid O’Sh., checked, and Wilmer Cook bet out a little less than half the pot. Let me ask you three questions:

(1) What do you think my opponents have?

(2) Answering that, what, then, are my chances of making the best hand?

(3) How should I respond to Wilmer’s bet?

Will return tomorrow with the results.

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Blogger Waldo's Wild Kingdom said...

Straight PLO I am guessing AAKX and suited. O8 I'd go with an AA25ish hand. Answers are different though, in O8, you are chasing only half the pot and should bail before things get too expensive. In PLO, you have a fair draw here (with the -- would you say hard to counterfeit -- high for the whole pot.) Even if he is carrying a miracle set on the low side, you have a better than 3:1 pot odds call for 12 outs (3x5s, 3x9, 3xT, 3xJ)on a rainbow board. Take it. See a card. Pay for the right odds on the river too.

3/26/2008 2:22 PM  
Blogger Waldo's Wild Kingdom said...

Sorry, 13 outs...4x5s.

Assuming you get a call from the OR, your odds only get better. If he shoves/pots...well, PLO is gambling game and you have a legit drawing hand.

3/26/2008 2:24 PM  
Blogger Short-Stacked Shamus said...

Yes, this is PLO high.

3/26/2008 2:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Firstly, you've got 16 outs here (Waldo forgot about the 3 6's), and they're all to the nuts. Since that means you're almost even money against a set, you can consider re-potting here. However, if Wilmer has a hand like T988, which is a fair possibility if he's playing good starting hands, you're a bit of an underdog here. His line doesn't look much like a bare set, since he's not really protecting his hand against a straight draw. That would suggest he either has a draw, or has a combination of a made hand and draw. He might even have a hand like T987, which might also be a favourite here, not quite sure about the numbers on that one. So the only advantage to raising is to fold out worse drawing hands or hands that have you beat now but can't call, like an unimproved pair of aces. The OR might have such a hand, but just as likely has four face cards, in which case she should fold for Wilmer's bet anyway. I would still tend towards re-potting here, since if you call and the board pairs on the turn, you might be forced either to call a bet drawing dead, or to fold a hand that still has many outs to win. I think the danger of making a negative equity decision on the turn makes it worth gambling on the flop, where your hand is at worst a 60-40 underdog. There you have it!

3/26/2008 9:18 PM  

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