Friday, August 03, 2007

A Tale of Satellite Suspense (2 of 2)

And now, back to our tale of SUSPENSE!In this series are tales calculated to intrigue you, to stir your nerves, to offer you a precarious situation and then . . . withhold the solution . . . until the last possible moment . . . .

That’s how the “Man in Black” would often introduce the old radio show Suspense. Terrific stuff, by the way, and not too hard to locate many of the 900+ shows created during the 40s, 50s, and 60s here on the interweb. (If you’re interested, check out them “hard-boiled links” down below.)

Missed part 1? Click here. Or just read this here recap: There are four of us left in a PLO satellite for which only first-place offers any reward. Blinds are 50/100. I am in second-place with 3,480 chips. To my left are the two short stacks -- one with 922, the other 1,968. To my right is the chip leader, Moosehead, who has 5,630. Moosehead posts the small blind and I post the big blind. I get dealt JdAhJhKs. Both the short stacks fold, and Moosehead completes from the SB, I raise it up to 300, and Moosehead calls. Flop is 8hJs9h and Moosehead instantly bets pot -- 600 chips. He’s got 4,730 behind, and I’m sitting there with 3,180.

That’s our “precarious situation.”

I think this hand highlights differences between cash games and tourneys, as well as between winner-take-all tourneys and those which pay multiple places. We’re almost looking at a heads-up situation here -- not just in this hand, but for the entire tournament. The short stacks still have chips, of course, but aren’t in good shape to battle me or Moosehead, especially if either of us lands a big chunk of chips in this hand.

My first thought when Moosehead bet pot on that flop was he had Q-10. That instinct probably comes from playing more PLO cash games than tourneys. Indeed, if this were a cash game -- and if we had several limpers seeing that flop -- a pot-sized bet from early position very likely would mean a flopped straight (and probably a flush draw, too). Let’s say he has the straight. Let’s give him a worse flush draw, too. That would be his best possible holding in this situation, really. Where do I stand?

I still have seven outs to the nut flush (twice), plus seven outs to the boat or quads (twice), plus three more to the boat or quads (on the river). Running my hand through the Omaha calculator, most versions of Q-T-x-x with two hearts make me around 60% to win. MacAnthony’s example (see comments on previous post) of QhTh9s9c is the absolute best case for Moosehead, I believe. In that one, I’m a 52.7% favorite.

Like I say, my first instinct was he had the straight. But I had a second thought even before I made a move here. My “nerves were stirred,” so to speak. Influenced mainly by some of Moosehead’s prior play, I had an overwhelming impression he didn’t have the straight. I didn’t know what he did have, but just didn’t believe he had Q-T.

Looking back, I’m liking both Mac & Kaja’s suggestion to call here and see that turn card. If I really don’t think he has the straight, then I should have thought a little longer and realized I am WAY ahead of any other possible holding. In which case I can afford to see that turn card and reassess. However, I was eager to get Moosehead’s chips right here, especially considering where a double-up would position me tourney-wise. Mark makes a great point about a heart scaring Moosehead away. The board pairing might well do the same.

Thinking like Mark, I re-potted to 2,400, pretty much knowing Moosehead would stick around (and that such a bet commits me to the hand). Moosehead reraised it (as I expected), I called all-in, and we turned over our cards:

Good Golly, Miss Molly . . . I am WAY ahead!

Wow. About as good as I could have hoped for, really. I’m over 90%. Just don’t want to see any non-heart ten here. Hold! Hold . . . !

Boom . . . the turn brings the friggin’ Td. I’m still about 42%, though. But the river is the 4d, and I’m out in 4th.

I’ll be trying again, I think. Interesting how in the PLO tourneys the “nut-peddler” really can’t survive. Out of necessity, folks routinely call and/or push with less than the nuts (sometimes in reckless fashion). In the tourney, you might have to go with your middle set and/or king-high flush draw, whereas in a cash game it’d be obvious suicide to do so.

Anyhow, thanks for the great feedback. I hope everyone was sufficiently intrigued. And so concludes our tale of . . . SUSPENSE!



Blogger Mark said...

Ouch! Still, got the money in good, in a winner takes all you just got to try and win!

One further thought - would you play this hand differently on the bubble of a SNG?? Shorties around to make this an interesting decision...

Cheers, Mark

8/03/2007 11:23 AM  
Blogger Short-Stacked Shamus said...

Good question, Mark. If this were a SNG that paid three spots, I probably would've played it the same way. (Perhaps might've just called preflop, actually, but still would've tried to get it all in on that flop.)

8/03/2007 5:41 PM  
Blogger Aquaman said...

Great tale! I had put Moose on the straight but agree, even then you should push. Omaha really is different than HE. And thats a good thing!

8/04/2007 12:42 PM  

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