Monday, August 28, 2006

WSOP Final Table Hand No. 22: Just In Case

Shamus watches the WSOP final tableThe blinds are still 80,000/160,000 with a 20,000 ante. For the three main players in this hand, Gold has around 27.5 million in chips, Cunningham has 16.7 million, and Erik Friberg 7.5 million. Gold limps in from UTG, Friberg calls from middle position, and Cunningham also calls from the button. “Oh boy, here we go,” says Gordon when Cunningham calls. Cunningham has only voluntarily put money in the pot once during the night’s first 21 hands (a brief battle of the blinds with Michael Binger in hand no. 13), so the mere fact that he’s entered a hand warrants our attention. Douglas Kim checks his option from the big blind, and the four see a flop of 8h9h9d.

Kim checks and then Friberg -- his view of the chip leader perhaps being obscured by Gold’s enormous stack of chips -- accidentally checks out of turn. “I didn’t check,” says Gold, and Friberg apologizes. “It’s all right . . . you didn’t see,” Gold replies. He then bets 1 million. With minimal deliberation, Friberg calls. “This the man who checked out of turn?” asks Cloutier (still in the booth with Gordon and Nejad). When Gordon confirms, Cloutier claims “I haven’t seen that play before.”

If the check out of turn were intentional, Friberg’s call doesn’t seem that odd. With that flop, he could well have a nine or a strong draw and now believes he’s induced a bluff from Gold. However, watching the action, it really doesn’t appear Friberg meant to check out of turn. I’m guessing he has some kind of draw and is willing here to commit the 15% or so of his stack in order to see the turn (barring, of course, a reraise from Cunningham). [EDIT (added 9/28/06): As ESPN's edited version of the final table reveals, Friberg indeed had reason to pay to see that turn card -- he held QhJh, thus giving him an open-ended straight flush draw.]

Cunningham also calls. When he does, Cloutier says to “watch out,” because he’s likely strong. “When he’s not doing the leading,” says Cloutier, Cunningham “is very very dangerous.”

The turn brings the 5s and Gold quickly says “check check” while looking at Cunningham. I’m not certain, but I think Gold might be implying that he’s confident Friberg is going to check behind him. In any event, it is pretty clear that Gold is primarily concerned with Cunningham here. Friberg indeed checks, and Cunningham fires out 2.5 million (into the 3.8 million pot). Gold calls quickly and Friberg folds.

The river is the As. Gold checks. The announcers are now convinced Cunningham has a nine. (They don’t offer to guess what Gold has.) “Will he bet for value?” asks Gordon. Cunningham bets 2 million -- less than 25% of the pot. Definitely appears to be a value bet. Gold swiftly puts down his water bottle and with a “what-can-I-do?”-type gesture says “I gotta nine . . . I gotta call you.” Gold shows the T9 (we don’t see the cards), Cunningham slowly mucks, and Gold slaps his hands together, yelling “Yes!” The pot he’s won is something like 12 million, thus far the biggest pot of the night (and maybe the entire tournament).

“They’ve asked to see Allen’s cards,” says Gordon, and we learn he held 97. (It isn’t clear who asked to see Cunningham’s cards, though I imagine it was probably Gold.) Gold then is shown telling Kim (on his right) that if Cunningham had gone all-in on the river he would probably have folded, fearing a boat. Cunningham looks dismayed -- I think he's genuinely surprised Gold had the case nine. But Cloutier quickly points out “You know, he [Cunningham] is supposed to have lost more money in that pot.” Cunningham is now in third with 12 million, and Gold is up to 34.5 million. It takes Gold a couple of hands to finish stacking all of his chips.

I’m sure Cunningham thought he was good after the river and indeed was betting for value. Even if going all-in might have bought him the pot, doing so with just a set doesn't seem like a realistic option for Cunningham at this point. I can’t tell if Friberg’s out-of-turn check after the flop had any real effect on how the hand played out. It seems to me that Gold would’ve probably put in his bet of 1 million (about a third more than the size of the pot at the time) no matter what, and Cunningham would’ve probably still just smooth called.

Cunningham was indeed fortunate not to lose more on the hand. But was it skillful play that kept him from being crippled here? If he had Gold on a busted draw or an eight or an ace -- which is what I think Cunningham was probably thinking -- I imagine he would’ve played the hand identically. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that having position -- more than anything else -- is what enabled Cunningham to escape the hand without greater damage. In other words, I don’t really think Cunningham was betting 2 million on the river “just in case” Gold had him beat.

And what about Gold’s play? His caution following that initial flop bet appears to make sense here, but could he have gotten more out of Cunningham on this hand (as Cloutier seems to be implying by his comment)?

During the subsequent break Gordon talks about how some viewers had been emailing in their thoughts about this hand. Gordon is now saying that he questions Cunningham’s 2 million river bet, claiming that he could only be called by a hand that beats him. Perhaps. (Or could Gold call there with aces up?)

The next hand I want to talk about is probably going to be Hand No. 122, the one involving Gold and Richard Lee and what I think turned out to be the biggest pot of the entire tourney. Still have four hours and eighty hands to watch first, though, so there may be another interesting one before I get there . . . .

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1 Comments:

Blogger andy said...

this is a situation that is misplayed multple times in cash games.

basically with 97 here, cunningham has trips no kicker and can not play a large pot where he is leading because he can get no action if he's ahead. on the turn if he bets, he swells the pot where his ponly outs are a 7 or 9. i like his line and think 2 mill does get paid off on the board from worse hands. incidentally i'm 100% sure if he faces even a minraise

8/29/2006 12:27 AM  

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